USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 I'm extremely worried about the Gulf Stream temp anomalies this winter if we don't get a hurricane this summer/fall to offset these temperatures near 38N:70W. It has been a rather average warmth summer for Cape Cod standards, rather temps have been uniform, like in the low 80s, one day in the 90s but most either 78-82 range. This should bode well for snow lovers in the winter time if the temp stays between 28-32 on the coastal plain where winter storms will be the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 No one would ever complain about winters if you could live at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Water temperatures are very warm for this time of the year and if no hurricanes develop and move over them they will still be very warm over the fall months and early winter months were if the dynamics allowed aloft could produce a surface low that deepens to below 965mb, that would be unimaginable. Imagine the amount of precip and snowfall that could occur from an ocean that is so warm and an atmosphere that is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2016 Share Posted August 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 Does anyone remember when Jerry began his annual Soviet Snow Spectacular last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 He usually begins in September sometime when the ice and snow start expanding again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 12, 2016 Share Posted August 12, 2016 It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 Gonna be a wet winter in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 I see that Alert, Nunavut, is -1c right now. I always like to see when they go below freezing for keeps. To me, that's the first sign that the game is underway. It's early....but looking at the euro 10 day we might be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 13, 2016 Share Posted August 13, 2016 I think we will see a very white winter in my opinion and if those SSTs don't drop in temperatures than we can all kiss our behinds goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 14, 2016 Share Posted August 14, 2016 James, dont cut corners and just repost ur previous 6 august pre winter thoughts. Tell us what you think this year..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 The NAO has been negative since early July... Does anyone think this could be a long term -NAO pattern especially regarding the low solar activity recently.. If this continues I also see a white winter in hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 On August 5, 2016 at 3:13 PM, ORH_wxman said: You talking about Jan 24, 2015? The storm on Saturday before the blizzard? I thought Boston did ok in that one...though if you were south of Boston you may have had a lot more slop. I went to a concert that night in Boston and it was snowing pretty hard for a time. I think they picked up 5 inches or so. There was a period of mix around midday before things flipped back to a steady snow for a few hours that evening. I think we did okay here for that one. we got a couple inches in the morning, and a few more in the evening. It actually snowed really hard for an hour or two that night as I remember being out to dinner and getting blitzed for a bit. everyone seems to forget that was really the event that kicked off that epic stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I do my "and we begin" thread at that point that is clearly when we're starting to recover as Will said. Typically mid September. Im encouraged by what I'm seeing in the pacific but we're early so I don't want to jump the gun. NAO is really important this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 9 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: The NAO has been negative since early July... Does anyone think this could be a long term -NAO pattern especially regarding the low solar activity recently.. If this continues I also see a white winter in hands The NAO has been negative in the summer recently, but then goes positive in the cold season. Not saying this is going to happen, but something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NAO has been negative in the summer recently, but then goes positive in the cold season. Not saying this is going to happen, but something to keep in mind. Yeah I have noticed that too but I feel last summer the NAO was expected to go positive given the mature +QBO. This season I'm intrigued because were in the process of transitioning into a -QBO which should aid in bringing blocking this winter season. Saying that there is still a lot of time to go so anything is at play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 23 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: James, dont cut corners and just repost ur previous 6 august pre winter thoughts. Tell us what you think this year..... lol. No doubt the really warm SSTs will allow for record cold on the beaches and weekly white hurricanes. Really, really worried about the weekly white hurricane chances. I'd get out now while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 4 hours ago, Powderboy413 said: Yeah I have noticed that too but I feel last summer the NAO was expected to go positive given the mature +QBO. This season I'm intrigued because were in the process of transitioning into a -QBO which should aid in bringing blocking this winter season. Saying that there is still a lot of time to go so anything is at play! The QBO was supposed to go negative as per its "usual" cycle, which went haywire in late spring. But now the consensus among the QBO experts is that it is going back to positive again for winter. It's behavior has been unprecedented over the past several months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The QBO was supposed to go negative as per its "usual" cycle, which went haywire in late spring. But now the consensus among the QBO experts is that it is going back to positive again for winter. It's behavior has been unprecedented over the past several months I'll bet the qbo goes negative in the next few months, or at least hope it does. The 50mb qbo is already negative but if it heads in a positive direction next month I'll be worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 I'm sure there is a true correlation between the teleconnections and the gulf stream, the gulf stream has to have some impact on the presence and severity of nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 What weather archive or SST archive could be best used to explain the impact the gulf stream has on a storm's intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 And lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Just not much of a Nina it seems. Pretty good agreement from both stat and dynamical models. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Also, this would certainly promote MJO movement through WPAC with these SSTs. I wonder how much Nina forcing we'll actually see from the atmosphere. I have to think there will be some Nino hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2016 Author Share Posted August 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just not much of a Nina it seems. Pretty good agreement from both stat and dynamical models. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Also, this would certainly promote MJO movement through WPAC with these SSTs. I wonder how much Nina forcing we'll actually see from the atmosphere. I have to think there will be some Nino hangover. Neutral meh Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 this is how it starts some years... you get these 'shots across the bow' earlier than normal, and it parlays... "....THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID/LATE AUGUST. GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...." no, we're not ending summer here... just that amid the tumult that is seasonal transition the "character" of how all that may take place ... sometimes these things take on complexion straight out of the gates. just saying that we could be setting precedence for cool incursions earlier than normal - causalities aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Nino hangover would be good in a weak la nina. You get something like a '83-'84 or '95-'96 pattern perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Nino hangover would be good in a weak la nina. You get something like a '83-'84 or '95-'96 pattern perhaps. heh, i like that: 'nino hang-over' ...it has merit though, because if the ensuing seasonal forcing is comparatively weak, the atm may have a bit of a 'memory' for the stronger forcing - in theory anywho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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