Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Moderate to strong la Nina expected. First call SNE 40-60 inches NNE 75-120 with PF 200+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47831-countdown-to-winter-2016-2017-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47831-countdown-to-winter-2016-2017-thread/ That is just a b**ch thread this is a dedicated forecast thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 I would pump the brakes on Strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 You can see in those graphics how much of a muted signal there is in New England during La Ninas. Tough forecast for us. If we avoid the AK vortex though, then usually they will be very stormy/active...which is a good thing for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 El Niño La Niña Weak Mod Strong Very Strong Weak Mod Strong 1951-52* 1963-64 1957-58 1982-83 1950-51 1955-56 1973-74 1952-53 1986-87 1965-66 1997-98 1954-55 1970-71 1975-76 1953-54 1987-88* 1972-73 2015-16 1964-65 1998-99 1988-89 1958-59 1991-92 1967-68* 1999-00* 1968-69* 2002-03 1971-72 2007-08 1969-70 2009-10 1974-75 2010-11* 1976-77 1983-84 1977-78 1984-85 1979-80* 1995-96 1994-95* 2000-01 2004-05 2011-12 2006-07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Euro issued March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ We'll know a lot more after the spring barrier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 El Niño La Niña Weak Mod Strong Very Strong Weak Mod Strong 1951-52* 1963-64 1957-58 1982-83 1950-51 1955-56 1973-74 1952-53 1986-87 1965-66 1997-98 1954-55 1970-71 1975-76 1953-54 1987-88* 1972-73 2015-16 1964-65 1998-99 1988-89 1958-59 1991-92 1967-68* 1999-00* 1968-69* 2002-03 1971-72 2007-08 1969-70 2009-10 1974-75 2010-11* 1976-77 1983-84 1977-78 1984-85 1979-80* 1995-96 1994-95* 2000-01 2004-05 2011-12 2006-07 I wonder why that list thinks 2010-2011 and 1970-1971 were weak La Ninas....those were both pretty darn potent. Like high end moderate. Though I don't know what metrics they use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 We'll know a lot more after the spring barrier That's what I figure. There is a ton of cooler water just below the surface right now. But I'm not sold on some of those rapid dropoffs occuring shortly. History does show some potent Ninas after strong Ninos so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Precip La Nina winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 I wonder why that list thinks 2010-2011 and 1970-1971 were weak La Ninas....those were both pretty darn potent. Like high end moderate. Though I don't know what metrics they use. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 10-11 is moderate, copied wrong [* Important note: This list was changed in July 2015 to reflect the use of ERSSTv4 by CPC in the calculation of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Consequently the events (below) marked with an asterisk were shifted down one categor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 That's what I figure. There is a ton of cooler water just below the surface right now. But I'm not sold on some of those rapid dropoffs occuring shortly. History does show some potent Ninas after strong Ninos so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm 10-11 is moderate [* Important note: This list was changed in July 2015 to reflect the use of ERSSTv4 by CPC in the calculation of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Consequently the events (below) marked with an asterisk were shifted down one category Oh yeah, the link also has '70-'71 as moderate too...that makes a lot more sense. I definitely wouldn't put them in the same category as those others listed in the weak column. At any rate...we are probably in for a multi-year La Nina beyond this next winter. That happens almost everytime we get a potent El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 That temp adjustment really played with numbers. I would like to go by the old way...like we all used to and adjusted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Storm Tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Seems like a good opportunity to bring up some dumbfounding events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 You can see in those graphics how much of a muted signal there is in New England during La Ninas. Tough forecast for us. If we avoid the AK vortex though, then usually they will be very stormy/active...which is a good thing for snow. Does having a positive vs negative PDO make a difference to New England during moderate and strong La Nina winters as far as cold and snow? Or is it negligible either way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Does having a positive vs negative PDO make a difference to New England during moderate and strong La Nina winters as far as cold and snow? Or is it negligible either way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Does having a positive vs negative PDO make a difference to New England during moderate and strong La Nina winters as far as cold and snow? Or is it negligible either way? There's a very small sample size of +PDO during a La Nina...only a couple of years in the 1980s ('83-'84 and '84-'85). So hard to make a judgement on them. Both were weak La Nina too. I don't think we have ever had a mod/strong LA Nina with a +PDO at the same time...unless you are talking about the general decadal PDO cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 What I would give for Dec 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 There's a very small sample size of +PDO during a La Nina...only a couple of years in the 1980s ('83-'84 and '84-'85). So hard to make a judgement on them. Both were weak La Nina too. I don't think we have ever had a mod/strong LA Nina with a +PDO at the same time...unless you are talking about the general decadal PDO cycle. Thanks guys. Yea, if there is indeed a moderate or strong Niña and a +PDO, we wouldn't have any analogs for that. I think the odds favor the PDO going negative with the Niña shift in the Pacific but the way the weather has been behaving the last few years, I guess anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 So...basically we don't want any Spanish named weather patterns, either Nina or Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 So...basically we don't want any Spanish named weather patterns, either Nina or Nino. Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Why not? Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods? I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2016 Author Share Posted April 13, 2016 Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods? I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither). 10-11 was very very good to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 Well, which set up typically gives better snow chances...with associated cold, not just quick hits dodging between warmer periods? I had always thought La Nina periods favored the northeast better, but I suppose it would be good to see some type of matrix that compared a history of La Nina, El nino, and La nada (neither). We do not have a strong signal in ENSO events...the exception is probably weak El Ninos which are good for us...and perhaps to avoid very strong ENSO events in general (either very strong El Nino or very strong La Nina), though the sample size is very low on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 13, 2016 Share Posted April 13, 2016 already sounds better than this past winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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