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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring into Summer!


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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

12z gfs is a pretty solid run for us.  I really dont want t get my hopes up this far out but its such a perfect track for high impact event throughout the whole northeast.  

I just saw that. First signs of white. Way out there but its been looking chilly in the long range for awhile. New thread coming Oct 1st. 

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Another nice run for very high impact event from SC to SNE.  Major questions with regards to phasing, but so much potential, it reminds me of Sandy in many ways.  

In regards to WNY, a high wind threat exists with some backend flakes as per the 12z gfs.  Lets keep this trending west and strong.  Exciting stuff.

Still 5 days out, but this is one of the most exciting things we've had to track for months!  Where is the enthusiasm?   

 

Start up the new thread Buffalowx

 

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Another nice run for very high impact event from SC to SNE.  Major questions with regards to phasing, but so much potential, it reminds me of Sandy in many ways.  

In regards to WNY, a high wind threat exists with some backend flakes as per the 12z gfs.  Lets keep this trending west and strong.  Exciting stuff.

Still 5 days out, but this is one of the most exciting things we've had to track for months!  Where is the enthusiasm?   

 

Start up the new thread Buffalowx

 

I've been following it in all the other threads that are active. LEK called this one so much earlier than everyone else. He called it to go way west of all guidance packages including ensembles. I can't believe he might be right with the track he choose a few days ago. All the models had it going way out to sea and he had it hitting Florida or very close. Props to one of the best Mets on our board and hes in our subforum.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've been following it in all the other threads that are active. LEK called this one so much earlier than everyone else. He called it to go way west of all guidance packages including ensembles. I can't believe he might be right with the track he choose a few days ago. All the models had it going way out to sea and he had it hitting Florida or very close. Props to one of the best Mets on our board and hes in our subforum.

yeah i realized i should have gone to the SNE forum.   

Also nice to see buffalo discussing lake effect snow on the backside.  

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

yeah i realized i should have gone to the SNE forum.   

Also nice to see buffalo discussing lake effect snow on the backside.  

 
Perfect forecast this week.
 
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Saturday
Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
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By Sunday night and Monday...notably dry and potentially much colder
air will make its way across the Lower Great Lakes. While this will
favor fair weather as we head into the new work week...some lake
effect is not out of the question. In fact...the GFS is even
advertising some lake effect snow for sites east of Lake Ontario.
Before you even think that the lakes are too warm for lake snow or
that it is too early in general for the white stuff...think back 10
years (almost to the day) to what happened off Lake Erie. Stay
tuned.

Higher Elevations in Tug and Adirondacks could definitely see some flakes.

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Come on baby... Pump that ridge and dig!
543a61eaccc54e2e89e1a7800df71858.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Long range looks really warm actually. Which is a good thing overall. Cold Octobers have a relationship with pretty bad winters, just look at mid October last year we had snow/graupel and than a terrible winter for cold/snow. I think we are still experiencing lingering effects from a record breaking El Nino with a zonal PAC dominated flow still.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

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Here is the last 12 months anamolies at KBUF. The only below normal month was April. Overall were at + 3.64 for the last 12 months. December 2015 had the be the biggest anomaly departure in KBUFS history. October looks to be a well above normal month as well. Pretty incredible warm stretch the last 12 months.

Oct: + .6

Nov: + 5.5

Dec: + 12.0

Jan: +2.0

Feb: +3.4

Mar: +5.9

Apr: -2.8

May: +2.0

Jun: +1.3

Jul: +3.0

Aug: +6.0

Sep: +4.8

http://i.imgur.com/C2Gj46C.png

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS and EPS keep us warm through mid month. Might get quite a bit colder later in October.

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

27 consecutive days with lake Erie setting a record high temperature for the date. That is definitely something we will never see again, incredible stat.

Hopefully your patience will pay off in November, with instability from the warm lake.

I'll be looking for thundersnow reports.

 

And mabey we get some scraps down here in Pgh. lol

 

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4 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

 

Hopefully your patience will pay off in November, with instability from the warm lake.

I'll be looking for thundersnow reports.

 

And mabey we get some scraps down here in Pgh. lol

 

All the analogs I've seen for Neutral to weak Ninas are pretty good for above normal snowfall across Upstate. Lake temperatures start to matter in lake October into November. The amount of warmth very deep in Erie this year from all the warmth is something I don't we've ever seen. But all it takes is a few weeks of below normal temps in the next few weeks to have us right back to normal. So the warm temps are always welcome until November starts. You should come up for a Lake Effect event, it's only a 2 hour drive to the prime spot in the ski country. My uncle and aunt used to live in Pitts, and used to visit for a few weeks every summer, one of my favorite cities. (Aside from your sports teams) ^_^

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All the analogs I've seen for Neutral to weak Ninas are pretty good for above normal snowfall across Upstate. Lake temperatures start to matter in lake October into November. The amount of warmth very deep in Erie this year from all the warmth is something I don't we've ever seen. But all it takes is a few weeks of below normal temps in the next few weeks to have us right back to normal. So the warm temps are always welcome until November starts. You should come up for a Lake Effect event, it's only a 2 hour drive to the prime spot in the ski country. My uncle and aunt used to live in Pitts, one of my favorite cities.

I've never chased before, but after years of seeing it online and TV, I may have to experience it in person.

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3 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I've never chased before, but after years of seeing it online and TV, I may have to experience it in person.

You really should. I mean it's such a short drive up for you. Just make sure it's a solid event before you do. You won't regret it. I think MillsvillePA and a few of his friends are coming up this year, maybe hitch a ride with him on the way up. He came up last year to chase an event on the Tug and stopped by my area on the way back and we went out to Duffs for dinner. Always nice to meet others from the boards.

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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You really should. I mean it's such a short drive up for you. Just make sure it's a solid event before you do. You won't regret it. I think MillsvillePA and a few of his friends are coming up this year, maybe hitch a ride with him on the way up. He came up last year to chase an event on the Tug and stopped by my area on the way back and we went out to Duffs for dinner. Always nice to meet others from the boards.

Yeah, I'll be keeping an eye on any good potential setups.

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Picked up 0.96" of rain overnight/early morning, 2.36" on the month so far..

Looks like a couple chilly mornings ahead..

Hwo

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 

Pic was taken in the vicinity of Syracuse 

 

 

FB_IMG_1475949589058.jpg

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Picked up 0.88" of rain overnight/early morning, 2.28" on the month so far..

Looks like a couple chilly mornings ahead..

Hwo


AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

 

Pic was taken in the vicinity of Syracuse 

 

 

FB_IMG_1475949589058.jpg

Awesome pic wolf. We're going to hit up Letchworth state park on Monday and see the colors changing. Looks like a perfect day.

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