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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring into Summer!


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It has begun.

 

Though the greatest probability for precipitation will be within
lake effect rain to the northeast of the eastern Great Lakes, we
will carry a low chance probability for showers across the entire
CWA, as daytime instability combined with steepening lapse rates may
contribute to scattered showers.

Instability wanes a bit Tuesday night over the lakes, but a still
potential southwest flow may continue lake effect rain showers. Will
continue with chance pops northeast of the lakes, while allowing
inland areas to likely dry out with the loss of daytime heating and
instability.
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25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Think it's just some good enhancement with a wave passage. Not seeing much support for anything more than a couple hours of moderate rain for the metro north around day break. Ah feels so good to be back in weather mode!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm in weather mode all year long but I go to more active sub-forums because this one dies from May-September. Nov-Feb is my favorite time of year for weather though. Lack of tornadoes and hurricanes the last few years has made summer very boring.

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42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm in weather mode all year long but I go to more active sub-forums because this one dies from May-September. Nov-Feb is my favorite time of year for weather though. Lack of tornadoes and hurricanes the last few years has made summer very boring.

This last sentence is so true. Especially hurricanes. Just nothing good since Sandy in 2012. Between that and the drought this summer tracking the weather has been awful.

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like the band is going to target Niagara county this time.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016092618/nam4km_apcpn_neus_20.png

Band looks like it's pretty far south right now but I think like south buffalo Steve said it'll likely be at its peak in the morning over the north towns.

43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Love the new avatar, what band is that?

November 2014 man, come on...! You lived through it! 

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38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

This last sentence is so true. Especially hurricanes. Just nothing good since Sandy in 2012. Between that and the drought this summer tracking the weather has been awful.

Band looks like it's pretty far south right now but I think like south buffalo Steve said it'll likely be at its peak in the morning over the north towns.

November 2014 man, come on...! You lived through it! 

Haha I know. It's so small, tough to see.

 

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm just glad you're back Devin. Going to be an active forum finally!

Thanks! So glad to be back in WNY.  No where else in the world I'd rather be. It sure is going to be great to post here again during the winter. Regardless of how good or bad the upcoming season is, for me it'll seem great after being in city that averaged 28" of snow per season. I'm super pumped for what's to come. Heck I'm super pumped about this first lake effect rain event tonight and tomorrow. Always great to look at radar and see a band at the eastern end of Lake Erie no matter what form it's precipitating. 

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19 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Thanks! So glad to be back in WNY.  No where else in the world I'd rather be. It sure is going to be great to post here again during the winter. Regardless of how good or bad the upcoming season is, for me it'll seem great after being in city that averaged 28" of snow per season. I'm super pumped for what's to come. Heck I'm super pumped about this first lake effect rain event tonight and tomorrow. Always great to look at radar and see a band at the eastern end of Lake Erie no matter what form it's precipitating. 

Yeah there is something special about lake effect for sure. Synoptic systems just don't do it for me. I mean there are a few exceptions but definitely prefer lake effect.

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