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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring into Summer!


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3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

I could see why you did it, and I wouldn't give up on that quite yet. but yea, the odds are dipping a bit with the cloud cover as of last shot. but with the latest satellite shot in, it looks like some sun is getting into southern Halton/Peel Regions as well as trying to poke into southern Durham region and even towards Etobicoke. Going to be close to see how this develops. the 17Z and 18Z obs may be the tellers for the rest of the day here. waiting on the 17z attm in Southern Ontario.

I havent given up...but I wonder if parameters in toronto west are maximized too early in the day.  Id still look toward peterborough and kingston late this afternoon.  The general set up is fairly similar to the one which produced the ef1 near lake simcoe a few days ago.  High shear low cape low lcl environment.

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the cold front is through Sarnia, so you could pretty much kill off all areas west of Goderich and London from the watch.

But low 80's in Port Colbourne and mid to maybe upper 80's in St Catherines/Vineland/Port Weller and even Niagara Falls NY with some sun worries me down there. And the warm front attm is from 1/2 way between Kingston and Watertown back towards Barrie and Collingwood. The reason the winds are SE in the Toronto area attm are because the lake is kicking in, not because the warm front is sitting South of the megacity.

i'd keep caution flags up east of the 403 and south of Hwy 7 for sure, but still emphasizing areas east of Hamilton-Wentworth.

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Buffalo, N.Y. -- Eyewitnesses saw a funnel cloud over Oswego and Lewis counties Tuesday evening, and the National Weather Service plans to see today if it was a tornado.

Meteorologist David Church said

 

the weather service

 

has seen photos on social media of a funnel cloud near Redfield about 6:15 p.m. The weather service had just issued

 

a tornado warning

 

for the area at the time.

"What we've seen so far is lot of pictures that look very convincing, but it's hard to tell whether it's just a funnel cloud or a tornado on the ground," Church said.

A funnel cloud in the air is just a funnel cloud; it's not a tornado unless it touches the ground and does some damage. The pictures online, Church said, have tree lines at the bottom, making it difficult to see if the cloud is touching the ground.

In addition, there have been no reports of major damage that would indicate a tornado, he said. The man who shot the photo above, Adam Hopkinson, said on Instagram he hadn't seen any damage except tree branches and leaves down.

Church said any damage is likely confined to fields. "It's pretty sparsely populated out there," he said.

Church said radar images at the time show what could be debris flying in the air.

The weather service office that covers Oswego and Lewis counties is in Buffalo, so meteorologists will have a long drive today before launching their investigation.

funnel-cloud-from-instagram-adam-hopkinsonjpg-cdd09998a388afe0.jpg

20932154-standard.jpg

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4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Buffalo, N.Y. -- Eyewitnesses saw a funnel cloud over Oswego and Lewis counties Tuesday evening, and the National Weather Service plans to see today if it was a tornado.

Meteorologist David Church said

 

the weather service

 

has seen photos on social media of a funnel cloud near Redfield about 6:15 p.m. The weather service had just issued

 

a tornado warning

 

for the area at the time.

"What we've seen so far is lot of pictures that look very convincing, but it's hard to tell whether it's just a funnel cloud or a tornado on the ground," Church said.

A funnel cloud in the air is just a funnel cloud; it's not a tornado unless it touches the ground and does some damage. The pictures online, Church said, have tree lines at the bottom, making it difficult to see if the cloud is touching the ground.

In addition, there have been no reports of major damage that would indicate a tornado, he said. The man who shot the photo above, Adam Hopkinson, said on Instagram he hadn't seen any damage except tree branches and leaves down.

Church said any damage is likely confined to fields. "It's pretty sparsely populated out there," he said.

Church said radar images at the time show what could be debris flying in the air.

The weather service office that covers Oswego and Lewis counties is in Buffalo, so meteorologists will have a long drive today before launching their investigation.

funnel-cloud-from-instagram-adam-hopkinsonjpg-cdd09998a388afe0.jpg

20932154-standard.jpg

 

Yeah, that definitely looks like a tornado to me. The top picture even looks quite large. Let us know what they classify it as.

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We made it! Extreme drought for Buffalo, Northtowns, and locations east. 

I hope I don't hear anyone complaining if we have an occasional rainy Saturday for the next year or two. 

Expect significant agricultural losses in Genesee County and Livingston County. 

Ready for this summer to end.

20160816_NY_trd.jpg

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1 hour ago, WNash said:

We made it! Extreme drought for Buffalo, Northtowns, and locations east. 

I hope I don't hear anyone complaining if we have an occasional rainy Saturday for the next year or two. 

Expect significant agricultural losses in Genesee County and Livingston County. 

Ready for this summer to end.

20160816_NY_trd.jpg

I've never seen an extreme drought for Buffalo. Didn't think it was possible actually. The lake brings rain/snow nearly every week from Sep-Feb. The pattern looks to be changing from the consistent heat and dry weather. The NWS even mentions lake effect rain early next week. A couple more weeks and I'll be ready for fall.

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4 hours ago, WNash said:

Another busted precip event at Buffalo - 0.19" through 1pm. And the drought goes on.

Climo says rainy season starts in a few weeks. As soon as the air temp becomes on average cooler than the record lake temps we will get rain. The drought will take a big hit in Fall. But the deficit is so large that we will need quite a rainy/LES season to get rid of it.

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2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Impressive 1.13" of rain in the rain gauge in Amherst overnight. Seems like most of the north towns got over 1"

Yeah, we finally had a marginal situation break our way! Hoping this is the beginning of the end of nearly a year of drought.

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Lake Erie set new record high of 77 degs for the date yesterday. Has a chance to keep setting record highs for the next few weeks with the very warm pattern. 

Also, one of the bigger tornadic outbreaks of the year occurred yesterday in Indiana/Ohio. Go over to their forums to see some really incredible videos. 

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