stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nam is rolling. Out to 72 more amplification ahead of the s/w vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Its a tad bit faster and the h5 low is slightly open at 18z when it was closed at 12z 12z NAM at 78 h5 18z NAM at 72 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not quite closed off at 72 hour. 12z was closed at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Its a strong s/w, but its open at 78 near the ARKLATEX region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Would phase nicely....details TBD later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, I think the NAM is pointing to something decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM h5 parting shot at 84.. nice ridge in the Western US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM h5 parting shot at 84 Very close to a phase. Thinking within 12 hours of this (at 96 hr) this would be completely phased. We'll see on tomorrows 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM h5 parting shot at 84.. nice ridge in the Western US The ridging looks good but isnt the Atlantic storm causing the trough not to be able to dig much? or am I totally off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z NAM 84h 5h map identical to 12Z Euro. 18Z NAM 84h 5h map very close to 12Z GFS 90h. The surface solution of the 18Z NAM looks quite a bit like the 12Z Euro at 84/90 hours though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 12Z NAM 84h 5h map identical to 12Z Euro. 18Z NAM 84h 5h map very close to 12Z GFS 90h. The surface solution of the 18Z NAM looks quite a bit like the 12Z Euro at 84/90 hours though... I'm not a met, but to my inexperienced eye, there are some significant - and potentially very important - differences between the 18Z NAM 84h and the 12Z GFS 90h aloft...I can't agree with you on that. The position of the energy on the NAM is well south and west of the GFS and much stronger, and the Atlantic blocking looks much stronger on the NAM too. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM h5 parting shot at 84.. nice ridge in the Western US That's beautiful! The PNA ridge has reached the former monster block in Central Canada. Alignment looks good to my eyes as well. Quasi 50/50 is slowly drawing the confluence North and as several have noted, there would almost certainly be a phase on the subsequent panel if the NAM went to 90hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'm not a met, but to my inexperienced eye, there are some significant - and potentially very important - differences between the 18Z NAM 84h and the 12Z GFS 90h aloft...I can't agree with you on that. The position of the energy on the NAM is well south and west of the GFS and much stronger, and the Atlantic blocking looks much stronger on the NAM too. Just my two cents. I'm no met either, and while I would never enter into any debate about weather with a met, I don't see very many similarities in those maps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18Z NAM 84h 5h map very close to 12Z GFS 90h. Disagree. The vort's deeper on the NAM and a few hundred miles to the west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This has a lot better look to me compared to the 12Z. The ridge out west is stronger with maybe a very slight shift west. The trough doesn't have such an extreme positive look. The height fields are evident and building on the east coast. Also there is an very evident shortwave dropping into the trough where it wasn't as defined in the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Disagree. The vort's deeper on the NAM and a few hundred miles to the west of the GFS. Correct. The GFS has the old CA short wave in NE Alabama, the 18Z NAM has it in north central LA. Not similar at all. 18Z GFS is to 6 hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z DGEX is out to sea, but I highly doubt that happens because it shows the trough barely digging, and as a result, not phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z DGEX is out to sea, but I highly doubt that happens because it shows the trough barely digging, and as a result, not phasing. iit's on the table as one of the solutions, but im not going to worry just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not too many big changes on 18z GFS vs 12z up to 30 hr. So far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Still no significant changes in 18z GFS run so far, out to 48 hr. Wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS and Euro play a game of chicken right up to the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Talking about a trend. 12Z NAM 500h looked nearly identical to 12Z Euro at same time, closed low and all: 18Z NAM 5h chart takes a major step toward 12Z GFS at 90h No they're not identical, but the 12Z looked like a carbon copy of the Euro, the 18Z has moved toward the GFS solution from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Talking about a trend. No they're not identical, but the 12Z looked like a carbon copy of the Euro, the 18Z has moved toward the GFS solution from what I see. One set of runs does not constitute a trend imo, that is observed over 3-4 runs in a particular model, or across the board in several models over a couple runs. Allan mentioned this in the SE thread about why it might look similar to the 12z global. Not sure if this is only on the off hour runs, or every run. Keep in mind the NAM uses the previous run of the GFS for boundary conditions, thus especially in the 72-84 hour range, the model is going to be very close to the GFS for these events where features start outside or near the edge of it's grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Those aren't the same time frame. You are comparing two different model runs at 84 hours. Those frames are 6 hours apart. The 12Z GFS at 90h is at the same time slot as the 18Z NAM at 84 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Those aren't the same time frame. You are comparing two different model runs at 84 hours. Those frames are 6 hours apart. I'm not comparing the images to each other. I'm comparing them to the 12Z Euro/GFS at the same valid time. The first (12Z NAM) is identical to the 12Z Euro in the handling of the S/W at 84 hours. The second (18Z NAM) has taken a step toward the 12Z GFS solution at 84 hours, that is all I'm saying, it is no longer a carbon copy of the Euro. EDIT: What I didn't mention is that even though the upper level seems to have stepped away from the Euro, the surface solution still looks very similar to the 12z Euro. With such disparate solutions, I'm interested to see which solution the NAM seems to be buddying up with...thats the point of the comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well if we're comparing, I don't think the 18z NAM looks even close to the 18z GFS in the same time frames (78-84 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z much slower speed wise this run when the low is on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY OTS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 hr 102 low off south caralina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Not a met, but it seems like the strength and position of the atlantic low is flattening the heights out ahead of this storm, causing a further E track than some of the other models.........correct me if Im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY OTS this run it'll be a darn shame if its right, that's all I have to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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