snowwors2 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Kuchera but FYI Bufkit is very aggressive. Either the Euro is right or the US are. Watch the Mesos tonight. Pretty damn cold airmass.thanks Ginx...always enjoy reading your posts in the NE forum... know you guys had a horrendous winter (too)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 now people are hitting me up on FB asking about the "6-10" we are supposed to get. C'mon, guys. We are better than this. We are the voice of reason between silly modeling snowfall map outputs showing 10:1 ratios and the fact it will be snowing during the daytime, with temps above freezing in most cases and an April 9th sun angle to deal with. Let's show those that trustr us we know better.I don't think anyone has said they're expecting 6-10" and what does your Facebook friend hitting you up saying that have to do with this board? We're just discussing what the model shows and a ten inch print out even at 5:1 which is pretty conservative is still a respectable event for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Caving to the CRAS.....much like that norlun that never worked out. Every so often the CRAS leads the way.Lol it's nothing close to the cras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 WWA up for most of the CWA Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 WWA up for most of the CWA Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk yep!! 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Slushy 2" tops in most places. Higher elevations could see lollys to 3 to 4". (This is for SEPA 5 county area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 I don't think anyone has said they're expecting 6-10" and what does your Facebook friend hitting you up saying that have to do with this board? We're just discussing what the model shows and a ten inch print out even at 5:1 which is pretty conservative is still a respectable event for the area. What model print out shows 10" at 5:1 ratio??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 0z NAM out to 12, need to halt the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Lucy is holding the football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 0z NAM out to 12, need to halt the south trend Yeah seriously...what's up with that big right turn out in central/western PA? I don't know if I've ever seen a snow swath like that. Any farther south and I'll be seeing nothing but cirrus clouds all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Um Charlie will never learn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Axis shifted 20 miles or more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 What model print out shows 10" at 5:1 ratio??? What model print out shows 10" at 5:1 ratio???Was saying a ten inch printout on the maps even with 5:1 ratio's is still a respectable event meaning 5 inches. Seems Mt Holly agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Dr Nooooooooooooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Amazing. You would think with climatology this thing would tick North given the time of year. Instead it trends South lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 The 00z NAM shows you how IMPORTANT it is to be under the heavy precip. Amazingly, @ 18-21 hours N DE, S Philly, and just W of Philly is MUCH colder @ the surface compared to the Poconos lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Amazing. You would think with climatology this thing would tick North given the time of year. Instead it trends South lol. I been thinking the same thing. This has to be 5 or 6 short term threats pulled away from us since late February, you would think something would break our way *** the last clipper ticked north and smacked New England lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 I will delete this soon, but this is crazy. Look how important it is to be under the heavy precip. Look at the temps around DE/Philly compared to the N. 2m TEMPS @ 20 Precip @ 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 NAM/GFS/RGEM continue to focus on W burbs of Philly as the small area that could see significant snow. Even if I don't see a flake tomorrow in NE Philly I am really interested/excited to see if someone in our region can see a crazy surprise. Would love to see a small local somehow get like 8-12" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 It is all about rates folks with this one. The images I just posted speak volumes. If you want snow tomorrow pray the deformation/norlun band sets up over your house. Someone is going to get lucky & someone is going to get hella screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Yeah seriously...what's up with that big right turn out in central/western PA? I don't know if I've ever seen a snow swath like that. Any farther south and I'll be seeing nothing but cirrus clouds all day... The amplitude of the trough is ridiculous as the system rockets east off the coast then due north and strikes Newfoundland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Ginx, what are your thoughts for down here? I live in NE Philly so only expecting an inch or 2 TOPS if we are lucky, but i'm wondering if people just W of the city might get a surprise HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 thanks Ginx... always enjoy reading your posts in the NE forum... know you guys had a horrendous winter (too)! Thanks had 42 inches but only about 4 weeks of real winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Amazing. You would think with climatology this thing would tick North given the time of year. Instead it trends South lol.mega Greenland block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 HRRR a couple degrees colder works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 It is all about rates folks with this one. The images I just posted speak volumes. If you want snow tomorrow pray the deformation/norlun band sets up over your house. Someone is going to get lucky & someone is going to get hella screwed You are right, it is all about rates, but those crazy rates are tied to convection and therefore will NOT be for around for a majority of the event. A large portion of QPF will fall at light to moderate rates which will equate to white rain (again, IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 GFS is amazingly consistent with a small blob that will give somebody somewhere warning level snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 GFS is amazingly consistent with a small blob that will give somebody somewhere warning level snow Yep, most likely someone in Chester/Lancaster county....going to be fun even tohugh I'll be watching from the sidelines. Here in NE Philly It'll be a win in my books if we can somehow muster an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Yep, most likely someone in Chester/Lancaster county....going to be fun even tohugh I'll be watching from the sidelines. Here in NE Philly It'll be a win in my books if we can somehow muster an inch Southern Berks? Could this be the day! Of course when I don't want snow and I forecast a bust to my boss, right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Plenty of radar hallucinations tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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