easternsnowman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Dr No with nada snow in PA and we are at just 24hrs out - how bout that model chaos this winter it's ending with an exclamation point. dr no has been no with accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 The gradients on the GFS and NAM remind me of the frankenstorm Oct 2011 In that storm, I was about 15 minutes away from the good stuff. I got a coating and mostly rain and people in the Northern half of my school district 13" easily. I had off from school for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I told my boss at the deli I thought we would get a coating to an inch, we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Should have gone a coating to 6+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Dr No with nada snow in PA and we are at just 24hrs out - how bout that model chaos this winter it's ending with an exclamation point. Wow. Well one(or two if the Americans are that wrong) of these models should be taken out back and put down after this event. what good is a model that can't nail down anything close to the final solution 24 hours out? Hard to pick a side though the euro has been trash this winter. But then again it seems that model is only wrong when it is the outlier showing a bunch of snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Should have gone a coating to 6+" Yeah, something about this storm didn't make me feel bullish. My experience from Frankenstorm was in my mind. Also, the wind has been really active and variable leading up to the storm which makes me wonder if the storm is really as organized as modeled. I think the cold might be overdone in the modelling too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Euro/CRAS vs the world. Wth?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 EURO actually got colder & wetter, and does show 1-3" in NJ...it def trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 18z NAM looks to be a disappointment for eastern Northampton county, doesn't just cut amounts to the east... it completely killed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I have to cover a invitational track meet tomorrow down here. This weather is just going to be great. Though maybe I can check out the snow traction on the golf cart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 NAM trended S....Been saying it, the place to be here is W of Philly.....4km NAM demolishes W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 now people are hitting me up on FB asking about the "6-10" we are supposed to get. C'mon, guys. We are better than this. We are the voice of reason between silly modeling snowfall map outputs showing 10:1 ratios and the fact it will be snowing during the daytime, with temps above freezing in most cases and an April 9th sun angle to deal with. Let's show those that trustr us we know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 My local TWC forecast is going with 5"-8" ... lolz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This storm has looked warmer further east on several runs. The further south it tracks the more warm air it can pull off the ocean, opposite of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 My local TWC forecast is going with 5"-8" ... lolz!! If it works out like that I will be shocked (my forecast shows the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 My local TWC forecast is going with 5"-8" ... lolz!! With lollies or just lolz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GFS looks like it's hitting just west of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GFS looks like it's hitting just west of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GFS nice hit for PHL W looks like.....Like the NAM it has that blob of crazy amounts just W of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 18z is a Kamu special Snow pile FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 10:1 ratios on that map. That won't even be close to verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 10:1 ratios on that map. That won't even be close to verifying Kuchera but FYI Bufkit is very aggressive. Either the Euro is right or the US are. Watch the Mesos tonight. Pretty damn cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Kamu's squirrels are going to need FEMA after the wind storms now this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Kuchera but FYI Bufkit is very aggressive. Either the Euro is right or the US are. Watch the Mesos tonight. Pretty damn cold airmass. Looking forward to watching it unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Kuchera but FYI Bufkit is very aggressive. Either the Euro is right or the US are. Watch the Mesos tonight. Pretty damn cold airmass. Ginx, what are your thoughts for down here? I live in NE Philly so only expecting an inch or 2 TOPS if we are lucky, but i'm wondering if people just W of the city might get a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Looking forward to watching it unfold One reason I love spring storms. Very hard to predict. Could see it play out either way tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I am real uncomfortable now with the NAM and GFS making a big move south toward the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This is reminiscent of tracking a norlun trough they never work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I am real uncomfortable now with the NAM and GFS making a big move south toward the ECMCaving to the CRAS.....much like that norlun that never worked out. Every so often the CRAS leads the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Latest Wxsim shows 6" to 9" of snow here in NW Chesco with a total w.e. of 1.15" (clearly not likely but interesting this late in the year) but a little elevation above 660 ft here in NW Chesco will likely make a difference....250 feet could make a huge difference in this type system. But still hard to buy a significant snow event this late in the season. Although it has happened out here before...so stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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