anthonyweather Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 A thread is needed for the potential for a few inches of slushy snow in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 12z NAM is north, heaviest snow snow bucks and Montgomery N&W. Tune of 4-8" Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 We just got NAM'd in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 We just got NAM'd in April. We all did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Few slushy inches of snow seems like the common theme with this one even in the Poconos/LV. Daytime event in mid April with temps above freezing. Still cool to see a few last flakes anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 We all did lol It's a daffodil crusher making up being December wronged lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Pain in the ass we are landscaping full bore. Gotta spend the night getting equipment out and spreaders on Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 The gradients on the GFS and NAM remind me of the frankenstorm Oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 The gradients on the GFS and NAM remind me of the frankenstorm Oct 2011 gradient through mercer county on the NAM is crazy. these are based on 10:1 ratios so not going to verify at all, but it spits out 10 inches in the northern tip of the county, and 2 inches at the southern tip. The 12z NAM says maybe to advisory in Bucks/Montgomery and Mercer counties on top of the NW burbs. The composite radar looks awesome for tomorrow and if it comes to fruition we'll be seeing some really heavy wet snow for several hours. Even if it doesn't get under freezing, I think it will still accumulate faster than it melts. Whoever gets in the pivot point is going to see an awesome death band. Where that sets up is where the best accumulations will be even if it's slightly above freezing. Outside of that band though, the majority of the area will likely just be seeing a slushy coating to 2" on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 12z GFS drops a wet snow bomb on redskys crib. 14" at 10:1 ratios quite possibly could get a warning event out of this... 5:1 ratio's would still be 7" and with those rates, i'd imagine it'll accumulate better than that despite the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 12z GFS drops a wet snow bomb on redskys crib. 14" at 10:1 ratios quite possibly could get a warning event out of this... 5:1 ratio's would still be 7" and with those rates, i'd imagine it'll accumulate better than that despite the sun. That was my face when I saw the frames of the run come in. We all know it's going to migrate over to Monmouth County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I will take my foot of snow on the GFS and be happy. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That was my face when I saw the frames of the run come in. We all know it's going to migrate over to Monmouth County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 One thing to be gleamed from this is if the NAM and GFS nail the high QPF from the 12z runs the sun angle/time of day problem will no longer matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 April 7th 2003 redux for those that remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I feel for the mt holly guys. This is a brutal forecast. Someone is going see warning level snows but much of the area will only get minimal advisory criteria. I think they issue advisories and then upgrade to a warning as the event unfolds and it becomes more apparent who is going to hit by the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Headed out now for beer and toilet paper just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Headed out now for beer and toilet paper just to be safe. Good thing I smoked a 13 pound brisket yesterday...plenty of leftovers :-) Packed away the snow gear in my car and my trusty shovels I am going to wait until I actually see the white falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Time to sit by the fire with the Hugh Hefner robe, pipe in my mouth and the fire going thinking about the early 1800's late season snows and the Mt Tambora eruption and contemplate a 13" snow in April Before 18z ruins it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 UKMET nails Monmouth County, that didn't take long lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 wow...GFS trends towards the NAM in qpf . this is lookin....dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 slightly concerning that the RGEM is significantly drier than the american models. though the canadian mdoels have been playing catch up during this entire system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 slightly concerning that the RGEM is significantly drier than the american models. though the canadian mdoels have been playing catch up during this entire system.Not as bad as the CRAS....targets the DC area....we dont see a flake or rain drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 slightly concerning that the RGEM is significantly drier than the american models. though the canadian mdoels have been playing catch up during this entire system. RGEM isn't drier than the other models? It has a sharp cutoff N to S, but it wallops just W of Philly pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Daytime April snow, need elevation and hvy snow to accumulate. If it was night then those numbers showing up would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Not as bad as the CRAS....targets the DC area....we dont see a flake or rain drop.Well the CRAP never is right over every other model this close to an event so I'm not concerned about that at all. I think the gfs and nam are showing convective banding which is why the qpf is so high on them. With a moisture feed straight from the Atlantic, ocean temps anomalously high, and a pretty potent shortwave, I could definitely see qpf being convective in nature. Looking at a sounding it looks to me like thundersnow is a distinct possibility. I'm not sure that the rgem is picking up on that. Could also very well be that the American models are very overdone on precip. Wouldn't be the first time where you may need to cut their qpf totals in half from what their showing. Will be interesting to see the result as there are two distinct camps regarding qpf. I do not envy a forecasters job around here. Could be a slushy coating, could be 10 inches. It's all on the table less than 24 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 RGEM isn't drier than the other models? It has a sharp cutoff N to S, but it wallops just W of Philly pretty hard.Yes it is. It's a good .8" liquid equivalent less in the northern areas. And the Max precip output is .3" less. It's definitely drier. Much narrower with the precip than the American models as well. The American models are widespread .8-1.1" qpf while the rgem is a narrow swath of .8" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Dr No with nada snow in PA and we are at just 24hrs out - how bout that model chaos this winter it's ending with an exclamation point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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