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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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We'll see how the rest of the month plays out, but so far this May is reminding me of May 2003 ... worst May ever!

Was the worst spring month ever most likely. Philadelphia set the record of 15 or 16 days straight with measurable precipitation and the temperatures were cool. The sun came out on a warm day that June and I dropped to my knees and looked to the heavens...

 

Too make matters worse I had just got my shiny red sports car a month earlier, too say I was disgruntled with that weather would be a huge understatement.

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We have some ridiculous for the season chill coming on the weekend. 56F for a forecast high Sunday under mostly sunny skies in mid May?

 

Frost in the coldest outlying regions seems a possibility Monday morning if the winds subside. Remember only one other time of a frost chance this late in my lifetime it was the early 80's and I think around Mat 10th 

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Nice little May snowstorm on tap for the higher elevations of the White Mtns in NH late in the weekend:

Sunday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Strong and damaging winds.
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Hi All,

 

I am conducting a survey on the AmericanWX site as part of a graduate student research project at UMBC.   All submissions will remain anonymous, individuals will not be identified, and the data and results will only be used for this class paper (the results will not be published).

 

The survey should only take 10 minutes, and will be open until Saturday, May 14 at 12 noon EST.  

 

The first ten (10) people to respond will receive a $5 Amazon gift card within 24 hours of submission.

 

To participate, please visit https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/F7KF6L2.

 

Thanks!

Kevin

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Get out early and enjoy the sun....here's our afternoon stuff.

 

68.4F

 

 

day1probotlk_1300_wind_prt.gif

 

 

Interesting little setup later today.

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0753 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

   STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM AND CNTRL/SRN

   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN

   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...

   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL BE

   POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATANTIC STATES...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

   TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...

   AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ONT THIS PERIOD AS

   UPSTREAM RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES UPON CONTINUING E INTO THE RCKYS...AND

   CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CA/ORE CST BROADENS UPON MOVING E INTO ORE.

   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER IND SHOULD REACH MD/VA BY LATE

   TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN.

   SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO IND VORT WILL SETTLE

   FARTHER S/SE ACROSS TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND GULF CST STATES

   TODAY/TNGT...WHILE PROGRESSING SOMEWHAT MORE RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE

   MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAKER FRONT WILL PRECEDE UPR SYSTEM

   AFFECTING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  

   ...MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...

   MOISTURE WILL BE COMPARATIVELY SCANT /BY ERN U.S.STANDARDS/ AHEAD OF

   COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...WITH SFC

   DEWPOINTS AVERAGING IN THE LOW 50S F AND PW GENERALLY BELOW 1.00

   INCH. COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND MID-LVL COOL ADVECTION /WITH

   500 MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR MINUS 20 C/ WILL...HOWEVER...BOOST

   SBCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

   NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN ZONE OF

   STRONGEST DCVA. AS THE ACTIVITY TAPS 40-50+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY

   700-500 MB FLOW....SIZABLE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST A

   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH

   STRONG TO LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS.

 

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The short-range models have been okay. According to most of them, the stronger looking convection builds more around Delaware/Maryland, along with SNJ (closer to the coast). I'm waiting to see if any convection builds up soon. So far the band of rain is still just a band of rain.

 

Here's the current AFD.

 

 

1230 PM Update...Adjusted the hourly temperatures up a bit in the
very near term and increased the clouds a bit faster eastward.
A bit cooler along the coast with a southeast wind component. Cumulus
continues to develop, however the 12z Sterling, VA raob showed a
cap in place. This should erode by late afternoon per forecast
soundings. No major changes made otherwise.
 
A vigorous upper-level trough is moving our way today. The water
vapor imagery shows this feature well along with an area of
deeper ascent along its leading edge. An associated strong cold
front will also be moving into our area later this afternoon.
Sunshine resulting in ample heating, however clouds are increasing.
 
As the cold front moves closer to our area along with increasing
large scale lift, we are expecting a line of showers and embedded
thunderstorms to develop to our west. Several of the high-resolution
models suggest an intensifying convective line later this afternoon
as it moves across much of our area. There is 40-50 knots of flow in
the 700-500 mb layer and the convection will be able to tap into
this. The forecast soundings indicate the convection will be low-
topped given less moisture in the lower levels (PW values less than
an inch) and therefore lower instability. It is the more limited
moisture that has us leaning toward less coverage of more robust
convection. However given the strong unidirectional flow and
incoming focused ascent, a linear convective mode may lead to
embedded bowing structures and therefore strong surface winds. The
forecast soundings also indicate an inverted-V profile in the lower
levels, which tends to enhance downward momentum of rain cooled air.
While some hail is possible given cooling aloft, the low-topped
nature of the convection should limit the size. We therefore
maintained the gusty wind mention with the thunderstorms, however
did add a mention in the hazardous weather outlook to match up.
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