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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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A little late
was driving up 380 west north of mt pocono this past saturday. Sun was shining while heading through mt pocono but thunderstormy dark clouds on the horizon. 
About mile 13 on 380 I hit a squall that took dry roads to the picture below in about a mile. That's the fastest I've seen the road conditions detoriorate ever.
It was great to witness but holy, going from 80 to 5mph in that time frame was an experience

 

IMG_0911.JPG

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No more putting lipstick on a pig this December sucks.

 



Could be last winter and 70 degrees towards Christmas. I will take my whitening of the ground and icing on the tree branches for my winter postcard picture scene and run with it. We rarely get this in December any more. Sorry your snowfall expectations were high for this event. I thought 1-3" was a sure bet but the low end of that range was hardly realized but we all knew the turnover was inevitable with that warm nose above 850mb. Maybe January will rock!

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11 hours ago, mcwx said:

A little late
was driving up 380 west north of mt pocono this past saturday. Sun was shining while heading through mt pocono but thunderstormy dark clouds on the horizon. 
About mile 13 on 380 I hit a squall that took dry roads to the picture below in about a mile. That's the fastest I've seen the road conditions detoriorate ever.
It was great to witness but holy, going from 80 to 5mph in that time frame was an experience

 

IMG_0911.JPG

Very nice! Hope we don't have to drive north and west (from SEPA) to see that kind of snow at some point this winter....

FWIW here the seasonal snow total to date is 1.4" which is an improvement from last year.

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Approaching what has been a bleak looking last third of December, GFS hints at a possible thread the needle with timing event just past Christmas with a big 1040 High battling low pressure up from the south. Not much at this time but at least it's something and a chance which is better than last year.

 

 

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Approaching what has been a bleak looking last third of December, GFS hints at a possible thread the needle with timing event just past Christmas with a big 1040 High battling low pressure up from the south. Not much at this time but at least it's something and a chance which is better than last year.

 

 

Mid Atlantic forum says the GFS is full of errors and shouldn't be believed. They suggest more of a cutter which actually makes sense.

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Just took a glance at the GFS op and the only $.02 I have to offer is that in late December with a nearly perfectly placed strong HP one would expect a much more frozen solution on a LR operational model. The fact the cold air is so limited and erodes relatively quickly makes me think to myself, "Geez, with those nearly perfect conditions in a climatologically favorable time of the year, if we can't muster frozen out of that, it is going to be a long winter". Probably reading into the OP too much but those are my thoughts. GEFS make more sense it appears.

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mid Atlantic forum says the GFS is full of errors and shouldn't be believed. They suggest more of a cutter which actually makes sense.

Cutter is most likely with a tenuous pattern and no blocking like I said thread the needle situation with no mechanism to hold the high pressure and cold in place. 80's and 90's it can snow in a bad pattern but it's not easy.

down to 43F

 

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Just got home from seeing "Rogue One".  I had stepped out of the theater in Flourtown @ ~2 pm literally just as the gust front was coming through, and was like WTF? because it looked almost like a damn tornado.  Was going to go to the supermarket but decided to just go home and not be a :weenie:   :P

Currently intermittent rain and wind, temp down to 50F, and dropping.  Time to put some salt out because whatever is wet is going to freeze.

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