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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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Im not quite as gung ho as some folks in the NYC forum regarding the upcoming pattern. -EPO imho looks displaced too far to the West (not a true epo block by definition) centering the mean ridge off the West Coast and the mean trof out in the rockies with more of a flat flow or gradient type pattern in the LR. These are always hit or miss in terms of winter weather.....end up North of the gradient, you are golden. End up South and not so good if you want snow. No blocking in the Atlantic to amplify things on the East Coast spells fast moving systems for the foreseeable future. This doesnt mean we are in dire straits but based on early season patterns, I am sticking with my guns that this will play out as an overall normal winter for SE PA with DJF temps averaging near normal for the 3 month period with snowfall averaging near or slightly below avg. Another back loaded winter likely with March being BN in temps and AN in snowfall. I just dont see anything near term to snap the cold then cutter/snow to rain pattern for SE PA and coastal areas. Inland and well N and W another story. Enjoy your winter :-)

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im not quite as gung ho as some folks in the NYC forum regarding the upcoming pattern. -EPO imho looks displaced too far to the West (not a true epo block by definition) centering the mean ridge off the West Coast and the mean trof out in the rockies with more of a flat flow or gradient type pattern in the LR. These are always hit or miss in terms of winter weather.....end up North of the gradient, you are golden. End up South and not so good if you want snow. No blocking in the Atlantic to amplify things on the East Coast spells fast moving systems for the foreseeable future. This doesnt mean we are in dire straits but based on early season patterns, I am sticking with my guns that this will play out as an overall normal winter for SE PA with DJF temps averaging near normal for the 3 month period with snowfall averaging mear or slightly below avg. Another back loaded winter likely with March being BN in temps and AN in snowfall. I just dont see anything near term to snap the cold then cutter/snow to rain pattern for SE PA and coastal areas. Inland and well N and W another story. Enjoy your winter :-)

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Good post I think HM is right about this being an interior winter, but I'm sure you guys will have chances especially as the season progresses.

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Good post I think HM is right about this being an interior winter, but I'm sure you guys will have chances especially as the season progresses.


Dont know who HM is but glad we agree :-/

Agreed, patience will be key this winter. Lots of 1-3"/2-4" stuff early along with front end thumps to rain for SE PA (I95 corridor and nearby burbs). LV will do well imo as well as interior and upstate PA. Not sure we get a "big" storm this year....only if NA blocking can ever establish itself and slow the fast flow that is East of the continental divide. 4-8"/5-10" storm in late Feb or early March this year will be our big one in SE PA and will push seasonal snowfall to close to avg. This isnt a terrible thing and obviously these are just my personal thoughts. Things could be a heck of a lot worse....avg isnt bad. Cant have an above avg snowfall winter will monster storms every year....just doesnt work that way.
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Of course I have pointed out before how lucky (for those that like snow) this area has been. Imagine if you grew up in Philly in the 70's (like me)and did not see one storm with over 10" from the time you were too young to remember (Christmas Eve 1966 - 12" snow at PHL) till January 20, 1978. So growing up in Philly I saw my first storm over 10" at 15 yrs old. In fact until that age I only witnessed one storm over 6" - that was on my 10th birthday 12/17/73. Today's younger generation thinks large snow storms happen every year. Imagine if we had the internet back in the day....how much cheese would be needed for all the whining?

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54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Dont know who HM is but glad we agree :-/

Agreed, patience will be key this winter. Lots of 1-3"/2-4" stuff early along with front end thumps to rain for SE PA (I95 corridor and nearby burbs). LV will do well imo as well as interior and upstate PA. Not sure we get a "big" storm this year....only if NA blocking can ever establish itself and slow the fast flow that is East of the continental divide. 4-8"/5-10" storm in late Feb or early March this year will be our big one in SE PA and will push seasonal snowfall to close to avg. This isnt a terrible thing and obviously these are just my personal thoughts. Things could be a heck of a lot worse....avg isnt bad. Cant have an above avg snowfall winter will monster storms every year....just doesnt work that way.

Completely agree Ralph, good post. Definitely looking like an interior and new England winter. 

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15 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Did you really delete the thread for Sunday?

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Maybe possibly did it to create some good ju-ju, 12z ECM with a weaker wave, weaker means less warm shows decent dose of snow N&W of Philly and NYC

 

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1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

 

 


Don't really agree with that but whatever.


Hmmm how's it look for ABE and NORTH ? Don't have WB on my phone

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Sounds like from what is being said by our neighbour thread to the north it's in line with the GGEM so several inches. Sign me up.

 

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Don't really agree with that but whatever.


Hmmm how's it look for ABE and NORTH ? Don't have WB on my phone

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Euro guilty of it's newest bias....stringing us along and letting us down at the very last minute. CMC is by itself essentially.

I was premature with the winter storm thread. This is a low pressure going from Detroit to coastal Maine well N and W of everyone on this forum. Sure, a few areas will see some flakes at the onset but even N and W are going to plain cold rain with a retreating, and what will be a stale airmass, by Monday morning. When the often progressive NGP is starting to go towards the GFS and amp things up, thats not good. 850 low tracking from Wisconsin to Newfoundland isn't going to work for most of us. Again, aside from some isolated areas getting very minor accums at the onset, this looks like a wash for the majority.

When a legit threat is on the horizon, I will open another thread. It felt good to shake the dust off anyway. Here's to a fun and active season hopefully
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Regardless it's a STORM, and members of this sub forum stand to see plowable snow even if it does eventually rain. Yeah Philly may not but that shouldn't be grounds for dismissing the entire thing.

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Start a thread then. This is a public forum. We both have freedom (moderated obviously) to post as we choose. I chose to pull the thread. I see this threat of plowable snows as more isolated than you are seeing it apparently. Im not disagreeing that some areas in the Poconos will get several inches. I just see it more isolated rather than a widespread event.

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We can't forget normal December climatology and that we have been living in a snow globe like environment since the winter of 2001. Philly normal for this month is 2.5" and I believe that is up .4" from the snow of the last 15 years. Cold weather and rain is normal December.

 

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