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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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It's been fairly quiet in the calm weather as of recent! Tomorrow may bring some action.

 

AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY /DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER/ SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. REWINDING A
BIT, THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA AS A LEAD IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH COMBINED WITH AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WHICH WOULD PROMOTE LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE
FORECAST FLOW, LOCALLY STRONG WINDS COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH MORE
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, SOME
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE
ACHIEVED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING PARAMETER
FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FLOW AND FORCING
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE ADDED IN A GUSTY WIND MENTION TO THE
FORECAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARMER, AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE DEVELOPING. THE PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0-1.5 INCH RANGE, THEREFORE LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION.

 

 

 

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 

 

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SPC has only MRGL for now, but I think it'll be upgraded to SLGT tomorrow. CAPE values on models are around 1,000 and SFC-6km shear is about 30-40kts. 
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Nice but brief little T-storm here in NW Chester County put down 0.18" - top wind gust was 24mph.

Rain so far this month 2.25" which is 1.34" below normal for April. YTD we stand at 14.67" which is 0.45" below normal YTD.

 

Today was our first 80+ day in NW Chesco since September 9th when we hit 87.7....now we need to work on our 1st 90+ day here in NW Chesco - it has been almost 3 years since we last hit 90 - last time being July18, 2013.

Predicting we will have several 90+ days here this year with what I think will be a mighty dry summer.

I was telling the folks at the township voting center today - Go Trump!!

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We finally had light shower and then another light one about 45 minutes ago, but now we're getting a thundershower with much heavier rain.  Am thinking it was good that the first couple light rounds of rain happened because it got the dry soil moistened a bit so we wouldn't waste this current gully washer due to excessive runoff.

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