Sophisticated Skeptic Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 maybe some thunder snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/04/strong_winds_destroy_trees_dam.html#incart_2box_lvl-homepage-featured Decent article covering some of the damage in Easton today, guess it was a fair bit more severe just north of me... happy it only resulted in power loss at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 So I am going up to Kunkletown, PA(North of Allentown) for the weekend. Should I expect a lot more in the way of snow up there. I think the GFS is showing 6 inches up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Even 0Z has surface temps at 36 in my area during heaviest rates...from 10am to 1pm no less on April 9th. Guys....not trying to be a downer, but that will not be advisory snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 00z nam is a thing of beauty yet again for the LV and POC Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Check out the 4km NAM, uhhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 00z RGEM looks like a nice hit for city W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Keep in mind daytime snowfall and date of April 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Keep in mind daytime snowfall and date of April 9th. We get it. Keep in mind heavy rates can overcome temp issues and the amounts being spit out by the models even if they are cut in half at 5:1 would still be an advisory event for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 We get it. Keep in mind heavy rates can overcome temp issues and the amounts being spit out by the models even if they are cut in half at 5:1 would still be an advisory event for parts of the area.Disagree. And the local mets apparently disagree as well.You wouldn't even see 5:1 with temps in mid to upper 30s and April 9th sun angle White rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Disagree. And the local mets apparently disagree as well. You wouldn't even see 5:1 with temps in mid to upper 30s and April 9th sun angle 33 is upper 30's? Berks county is under heavy rates at 42 on the Nam and the temp is in the low 30s. Yeah 5:1 is possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 There isnt a single local met talking this up or even saying anything other than "maybe a couple wet flakes mixed in". Mount Holly office also not very impressed. What are you guys thinking at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It will be interesting to see how it pans out especially in LV. I still think even up there it will tough to get much accumulation, but perhaps a couple slushy inches. I do think we will see some decent rates, but the NAM shows the heaviest rates and is always overdone with QPF. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This has definitely snuck up on a lot of people. I mean the 6z GFS literally gives the W/NW burbs of Philly 6-10" lol.....Do I think that is going to happen? No, but this is a very intense vort. Accumulation is going to be spotty because you are going to have to be under the heavy precip just NW of the ULL to get snow.....Someone could def see 6-10" if they get lucky and the GFS/NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Latest SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 This has definitely snuck up on a lot of people. I mean the 6z GFS literally gives the W/NW burbs of Philly 6-10" lol.....Do I think that is going to happen? No, but this is a very intense vort. Accumulation is going to be spotty because you are going to have to be under the heavy precip just NW of the ULL to get snow.....Someone could def see 6-10" if they get lucky and the GFS/NAM is right Yup, and temps on the GFS are in the low 30's for the duration of the storm in those area's. I really think the LV does pretty well for April on this event and is going to take people by surprise. Rates are going to be fairly heavy and with the temps hovering around freezing based on the GFS, I think 1-3" with lollipops of 4+" for whoever it situated under heavy rates to the NW of the low is a pretty fair guess at this point for NW burbs. I mean the 6z GFS clown maps show 8 inches in the city but looking at the temp profile there, I don't think that is anywhere near correct and still think the city and immediate burbs will struggle to see a slushy inch. I think this may be a late in the game advisory event the NW burbs with elevated areas seeing the most accumulation. Temps have fallen on the GFS from upper 30's in lower bucks into philly to mid 30's, and that may make somewhat of a difference if they get into heavy rates. Right now I'd say chesco,berks, lehigh, and northampton should get an advisory and if trends continue, possibly including upper bucks and montgomery. Important to note that the NAM is still pretty warm on temps in the city and immediate burbs. We want to see it trend more towards the GFS if there is any hope of a slushy inch. I think we should pay attention to the mesoscale models as the event draws near as I believe they will have the best guess on where the best rates will occur. There will be heavy snow somewhere in the area tomorrow that will accumulate but it will not be widespread and very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Nick quick shower of snow and graupel here in NW Chesco knocked the temperature back to 38.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 2" of snow when I woke up. no winter storm watches here yet? interesting.. EDIT: another low-topped snow squall here...as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Snow/graupel shower passing through right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Snow shower here too 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Just your run-of-the-mill mid-April snow shower here at the moment :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Just your run-of-the-mill mid-April snow shower here at the moment :-) Yup and tomorrow a garden variety April snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 12z GFS through 24 is a good 2-4 degrees colder at the surface region wide than 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Temperature holding down today, only 45.1 here in NW Chesco which bodes well for tomorrow. Looks like we can get it to freezing tonight so when the snow arrives it can accumulate right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 I can accurately say I have never seen snow TWO weeks after Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 This pic is from 6:45 am today, had the red sky in the morning going on, this is looking west with some tree tops lit up before the clouds thickened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 This pic is from 6:45 am today, had the red sky in the morning going on, this is looking west with some tree tops lit up before the clouds thickened up. Sat-4-09-16.jpg Wow.. that is beautiful Kamu!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Wow.. that is beautiful Kamu!!! Thanks - and 15 minutes after that it started raining, I didn't think at that point we'd have 2" of snow on the ground by noon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Thanks - and 15 minutes after that it started raining, I didn't think at that point we'd have 2" of snow on the ground by noon! SO Cool!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 10, 2016 Share Posted April 10, 2016 I'm liking the look of the forecast for the latter part of this coming week - low and mid 60's Friday - Saturday, not just a day's warm up before a cold frontal passage. Today was nice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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