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E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

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We get it. Keep in mind heavy rates can overcome temp issues and the amounts being spit out by the models even if they are cut in half at 5:1 would still be an advisory event for parts of the area.

Disagree. And the local mets apparently disagree as well.

You wouldn't even see 5:1 with temps in mid to upper 30s and April 9th sun angle

White rain

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It will be interesting to see how it pans out especially in LV. I still think even up there it will tough to get much accumulation, but perhaps a couple slushy inches.

I do think we will see some decent rates, but the NAM shows the heaviest rates and is always overdone with QPF.

We shall see

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This has definitely snuck up on a lot of people. I mean the 6z GFS literally gives the W/NW burbs of Philly 6-10" lol.....Do I think that is going to happen? No, but this is a very intense vort. Accumulation is going to be spotty because you are going to have to be under the heavy precip just NW of the ULL to get snow.....Someone could def see 6-10" if they get lucky and the GFS/NAM is right

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This has definitely snuck up on a lot of people. I mean the 6z GFS literally gives the W/NW burbs of Philly 6-10" lol.....Do I think that is going to happen? No, but this is a very intense vort. Accumulation is going to be spotty because you are going to have to be under the heavy precip just NW of the ULL to get snow.....Someone could def see 6-10" if they get lucky and the GFS/NAM is right

Yup, and temps on the GFS are in the low 30's for the duration of the storm in those area's. I really think the LV does pretty well for April on this event and is going to take people by surprise. Rates are going to be fairly heavy and with the temps hovering around freezing based on the GFS, I think 1-3" with lollipops of 4+" for whoever it situated under heavy rates to the NW of the low is a pretty fair guess at this point for NW burbs. I mean the 6z GFS clown maps show 8 inches in the city but looking at the temp profile there, I don't think that is anywhere near correct and still think the city and immediate burbs will struggle to see a slushy inch. I think this may be a late in the game advisory event the NW burbs with elevated areas seeing the most accumulation. Temps have fallen on the GFS from upper 30's in lower bucks into philly to mid 30's, and that may make somewhat of a difference if they get into heavy rates. Right now I'd say chesco,berks, lehigh, and northampton should get an advisory and if trends continue, possibly including upper bucks and montgomery. Important to note that the NAM is still pretty warm on temps in the city and immediate burbs. We want to see it trend more towards the GFS if there is any hope of a slushy inch. I think we should pay attention to the mesoscale models as the event draws near as I believe they will have the best guess on where the best rates will occur. There will be heavy snow somewhere in the area tomorrow that will accumulate but it will not be widespread and very localized.

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