The Iceman Posted June 3, 2016 Author Share Posted June 3, 2016 Oh well Last thundershower, not thunderstorm even, even noteworthy imby was in February. This following the lack of activity last season is an incredible storm drought. storm drought yes, but it has been far from dry at least here. a majority of the area was above normal precip wise in may. Sunday looks like it has potential to be a decent severe weather day. though there is a decent chance that we see morning convective crap that screws the entire day up. but a sub 1000 low to the west will put good dynamics in place. If the crapvection clears out early on Sunday, then we could see a pretty robust severe day if we can get some instability. interesting that SPC says that the main storm mode would be supercells if the instability is in place. I have a feeling that we will be socked in clouds all day that will limit the severe threat. that seems to happen anytime we have to worry about morning convection. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 storm drought yes, but it has been far from dry at least here. a majority of the area was above normal precip wise in may. Sunday looks like it has potential to be a decent severe weather day. though there is a decent chance that we see morning convective crap that screws the entire day up. but a sub 1000 low to the west will put good dynamics in place. If the crapvection clears out early on Sunday, then we could see a pretty robust severe day if we can get some instability. interesting that SPC says that the main storm mode would be supercells if the instability is in place. I have a feeling that we will be socked in clouds all day that will limit the severe threat. that seems to happen anytime we have to worry about morning convection. we will see. Those that scored the rain last weekend yes they aren't dry, but running around .50" in the precipitation department imby the last ten days has me into a solid watering routine Today's .08" didn't help matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 May actually finished on the wrong side of normal here by almost an inch. AVP had 2.22" from 1-15 May and has had 0.39" since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 May actually finished on the wrong side of normal here by almost an inch. AVP had 2.22" from 1-15 May and has had 0.39" since. I don't understand what has happened to NEPA weather. Little snow, little rain and few storms it's like a witch doctor cursed that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Pretty uncomfortable out there this morning, temp 73/DP 68/RH 83% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I don't understand what has happened to NEPA weather. Little snow, little rain and few storms it's like a witch doctor cursed that area. If it keeps up, there'll be palm trees and cactus growing up there. Instead of moving to Phoenix (like I want to) I could just move 30 miles north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Would be nice if it could actually rain tomorrow, outside of a two week period in May it's been a drought. Deja Vu 2.0 tomorrow Impossible to say how much rain will fall the next 24 hours only that some will be winners and some losers RGEM went from only .50"-.75" for SEPA to 1.25" - 2.25" it's last run NAM and GFS 1" in SEPA and focus more NW in the Lehigh Valley Dart board time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 Current temp 82//DP 68/RH 62% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 You'd think by the reports from media and social media that we are going see Kansas type weather tomorrow. Freakin alarmists. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ^ I know right. People are telling me how its going to be bad tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ^ I know right. People are telling me how its going to be bad tomorrow. It's gonna wind up being a typical (yet strong) squall line we see with frontal passages IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The set-up is pretty good. If we can get the pesky clouds out for the most part this afternoon we could have a pretty strong squall line move through. We have a good amount of shear in place and if the sun comes out we could work out ~1,000 CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 This was a two part system with showers overnight and early am then afternoon storms. Round one was a total dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Hoping for.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 You'd think by the reports from media and social media that we are going see Kansas type weather tomorrow. Freakin alarmists. Lol I heard the hype from multiple people yesterday. Even overheard a woman in a restaurant saying they were bringing in their lawn furniture because tornadoes and hurricanes were coming today. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Are the clouds expected to burn off? The vis sat looks pretty socked in. 12z NAM hammers my area pretty good later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 12z GFS anybody? says it's over .25" this afternoon and no storms. NAM cut qpf appreciably. Really hope this is some kind of game time fail of the americans or this would be an even bigger fail than memorial day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Picked up 0.40" of rain from a line of heavy showers that moved through a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 This is equivalent to a hyped eagles team in pre season only for it to become an train wreck and falls apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 This was a two part system with showers overnight and early am then afternoon storms. Round one was a total dud You got that right...lol Only 0.06" since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I am going to water all my vegetations to try and reverse black cat an evening storm. Low confidence I receive more than .50" Only TWO 1" or greater qpf events all year imby the blizzard and one in mid May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 The HRRR in underwhelming. Guessing models picking up on cloud cover stabilizing. Trying to clear a bit now, but guessing the hype was just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Sun peeking through the clouds here, temp 71/DP 69/RH 92% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It's a lovely 78/70 outside. Looks like a pretty good line of storms between HBG and UNV - looks to reach here around 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It's a lovely 78/70 outside. Looks like a pretty good line of storms between HBG and UNV - looks to reach here around 6. Yep...looking good w/a line of "reds". Get the BBQing done early folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Still mostly overcast here, skies continue to brighten a bit, temp 73/DP 70/RH 88% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 HRRR seems too bearish and the high-res NAM is on steroids. ARW high-res if you have access seems okay for the region, kind of in the middle of the previous two. It has that little line echo wave type feature on the PA/MD border pushing east. Differential heating boundary near the Philly metro may help maintain it. I am not too worred about tornadoes, but maybe some good shelfies come of it. If you like storms, good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 ^Thanks!^ Always appreciate a red tagger's insights! Filtered sun peaking through now and the breeze is picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 My shipment of fail is now arriving on gate 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Looking good. Current Temp/Dew: 79F/72F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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