Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE fall general OBS and Discussion thread


The Iceman

Recommended Posts

Oh well

 

Last thundershower, not thunderstorm even, even noteworthy imby was in February. This following the lack of activity last season is an incredible storm drought.

storm drought yes, but it has been far from dry at least here. a majority of the area was above normal precip wise in may. Sunday looks like it has potential to be a decent severe weather day. though there is a decent chance that we see morning convective crap that screws the entire day up. but a sub 1000 low to the west will put good dynamics in place. If the crapvection clears out early on Sunday, then we could see a pretty robust severe day if we can get some instability. interesting that SPC says that the main storm mode would be supercells if the instability is in place. I have a feeling that we will be socked in clouds all day that will limit the severe threat. that seems to happen anytime we have to worry about morning convection. we will see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

storm drought yes, but it has been far from dry at least here. a majority of the area was above normal precip wise in may. Sunday looks like it has potential to be a decent severe weather day. though there is a decent chance that we see morning convective crap that screws the entire day up. but a sub 1000 low to the west will put good dynamics in place. If the crapvection clears out early on Sunday, then we could see a pretty robust severe day if we can get some instability. interesting that SPC says that the main storm mode would be supercells if the instability is in place. I have a feeling that we will be socked in clouds all day that will limit the severe threat. that seems to happen anytime we have to worry about morning convection. we will see.

Those that scored the rain last weekend yes they aren't dry, but running around .50" in the precipitation department imby the last ten days  has me into a solid watering routine 

 

Today's .08" didn't help matters

Link to comment
Share on other sites

May actually finished on the wrong side of normal here by almost an inch. AVP had 2.22" from 1-15 May and has had 0.39" since.

I don't understand what has happened to NEPA weather. Little snow, little rain and few storms it's like a witch doctor cursed that area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't understand what has happened to NEPA weather. Little snow, little rain and few storms it's like a witch doctor cursed that area.

 

If it keeps up, there'll be palm trees and cactus growing up there. Instead of moving to Phoenix (like I want to) I could just move 30 miles north... :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would be nice if it could actually rain tomorrow, outside of a two week period in May it's been a drought.

Deja Vu 2.0 tomorrow

 

Impossible to say how much rain will fall the next 24 hours only that some will be winners and some losers

 

RGEM went from only .50"-.75" for SEPA to 1.25" - 2.25" it's last run

 

NAM and GFS 1" in SEPA and focus more NW in the Lehigh Valley

 

Dart board time...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You'd think by the reports from media and social media that we are going see Kansas type weather tomorrow. Freakin alarmists. Lol

I heard the hype from multiple people yesterday. Even overheard a woman in a restaurant saying they were bringing in their lawn furniture because tornadoes and hurricanes were coming today. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR seems too bearish and the high-res NAM is on steroids. ARW high-res if you have access seems okay for the region, kind of in the middle of the previous two. It has that little line echo wave type feature on the PA/MD border pushing east. Differential heating boundary near the Philly metro may help maintain it. I am not too worred about tornadoes, but maybe some good shelfies come of it. If you like storms, good luck!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...