The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Decided to start a new thread with the change in seasons and the other thread basically at the limit. After an OK winter headlined by the epic blizzard of 2016, we head into April with a decent snow chance this weekend. Most likely a coating to an inch region wide but the possibility is there for a high end advisory event.(3-4"). Nam came way north from 18z but with that, scorched the surface bringing mostly rain ending as snow for the area save for North and West. Not often are we tracking snow chances this late in April though. Regardless of snow or not, it looks frigid for this time of the year. Figures we get a -nao/ao combo this late bringing us a below normal first half of April and most likely just cold rain out of it. Anyway new thread for the severe season and this last snow event potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Through 48, 00z gfs a tad farther north than 18z with the surface low. While not major, it could have a pretty big effect on temps which are borderline even on the 18z run. Not much wiggle room I'm mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Through 78 definitely further north. Surface temps a good 3 degrees warmer in central Jersey. North and west look good right now with 3 inches this run. Cnj gets hit with wraparound snows but a bunch of rain to start due to the warm surface. Most of the region save for South Jersey sees an inch which isn't bad for April. CT sees close to warning level snows as does NE PA and sny. They've had brutal luck these past few winters would be nice for this to verify for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 We have run out of wiggle room for north trends, any more and we are toast for snow. Probably doesn't matter anyway it falls with the worst timing we get slurpee snow on grass at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishiwereamet Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Panasonic says they have created a model that outperforms the ECMWF - http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/tv-maker-panasonic-says-it-has-developed-the-worlds-best-weather-model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Thunder snow Saturday according to WU Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 6z NAM is a non event for a large part of the area besides areas to the N and W. 6z GFS gives most of the area at least some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z NAM farther North. Few flakes, mainly cold rain. Non-event. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z NAM farther North. Few flakes, mainly cold rain. Non-event. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk maybe in your back yard but Carbon/Monroe counties in NE PA/Poconos get accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z 4k NAM is much different. really shows the potential for a heavy band in lower bucks/into central jersey as the coastal takes over, surface temps around 34-35 but with the cold 850's and heavy rates, i think this back end stuff would be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 I am going Trout fishing Saturday morning in SNJ, looks like rain at that point. Soccer game in NNJ at night, looks like snow maybe. Would rather just all snow. Trout fishing in the snow, that's a first for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 maybe in your back yard but Carbon/Monroe counties in NE PA/Poconos get accumulating snows. Isn't there a forum for that area or are they still considered Philadelphia? I always wondered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Lehigh and the Poconos should have a thread but there would be a limited few there. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Isn't there a forum for that area or are they still considered Philadelphia? I always wondered. I always considered this forum mount holly's CWA. they really don't fit in the central pa/upstate NY. anyway, 12z gfs brings accumlating snow to the entire region. interesting battle brewing between the models on the temps. a 2-3 degree range is the difference between rain/maybe a few flakes and having a shot at getting an inch or two of snow. GFS is a solid advisory event for bucks/montgomery/berks/philadelphia and a warning event for NE PA. NJ gets kind of screwed, only getting a coating to an inch save for the northwest part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Getting some pretty decent gust here currently w/mod rain...dark/low clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 Getting some pretty decent gust here currently w/mod rain...dark/low clouds. whole bunch of nothing here. just a brief period of moderate rain. we split the uprights perfect between the two cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 whole bunch of nothing here. just a brief period of moderate rain. we split the uprights perfect between the two cells. Been down that road...uggh. Clearly up rather nicely now....maybe a grilling session in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z EURO has a really nice look for the surface low. Stays south of the area so we don't warm up. I don't have access to precip maps anymore, but I have to imagine it brings advisory level snows to a majority of the area based on the low track. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Looks like myself and most of Easton is without power atm. Went out a couple times, even came back for a decent period... seems to be out for good now until repairs are completed. Goes to show what adding water to the equation can do, lights didn't even flicker in that last wind storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Can't seem to edit my previous post via mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Dr false snow all winter is Dr No with Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 12z EURO has a really nice look for the surface low. Stays south of the area so we don't warm up. I don't have access to precip maps anymore, but I have to imagine it brings advisory level snows to a majority of the area based on the low track. Can anyone confirm? I dont see anything close to advisory level snows on any of the models with surface temps the way they are progged and April 9th sun angle. Slushy flakes with perhaps a coating is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 7, 2016 Author Share Posted April 7, 2016 I dont see anything close to advisory level snows on any of the models with surface temps the way they are progged and April 9th sun angle. Slushy flakes with perhaps a coating is my call. better double check the GFS. even if ratio's are 5:1 it would still be an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Yeah even 8" forecast is 1-4" accum IMO Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Had a brief but vigorous thunderstorm 4-4:15pm. A good 5 minutes of BB to maybe peas size hail, peak wind gust of 41mph, .17" rainfall. Lightning & thunder not as bad as would be expected for the intensity. Over all pretty neat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 WU updated LV to 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Slushy flakes with perhaps a coating is my call. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 DittoHey Ralph,You and Haz are gonna love the 18z NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Hey Ralph, You and Haz are gonna love the 18z NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 18z NAM and GFS with 6-8" LV and poconos Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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