HailMan06 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 m Have fun! Asbury film fest this weekend Thank you. I won't be there for the festival but will be in Asbury Park this June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Check out the 2m temps @ 20 hours for around N DE just W of Philly compared to the far N Burbs on the 00z NAM. They are around freezing because of the heavy precip over them. Tomorrow is going to be fun to watch from a meteorological standpoint. I really think someone around Lancaster/Chester counties will see 6-10" while around them gets White Rain. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Wow nam has nothing for nyc north. Alot of precip for south central NJ. The 1/2 inch isopleth is a stone's throw south of the South Shore of Long Island...and likely within the model's potential range of error. This thing is far from resolved...and chances are (as Johnny Mathis would say)...it could still get *very* snowy out over the Long Island late in the afternoon on Saturday, 9 April, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 The 1/2 inch isopleth is a stone's throw south of the South Shore of Long Island...and likely within the model's potential range of error. This thing is far from resolved...and chances are (as Johnny Mathis would say)...it could still get *very* snowy out over the Long Island late in the afternoon on Saturday, 9 April, 2016. There is another element to factor into the equation as well. Numerical modeling of the atmosphere does occasionally present us with minor biases; especially when large bodies of water are in close proximity to the area in question. One of these biases is the tendency to displace southward the main and heaviest zone of precipitation. This is because the effect of warm ocean water in conjunction with a developing cyclone in the hydrologic is not always precisely read; and this causes the area of greatest vertical motion (the place where there is the most lift and where the bulk of the precipitation is created) to invariably be nudged a bit north of where most numerical models would predict it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Wow, someone just west of Philly could pick up 6-8" under the band that sets up on the GFS/NAM. That area's been targeted for a few runs now. Unfortunately I think for most around NYC this will largely be light/mod rain or mixed rain and snow. The worst of the banding looks to stay just south, maybe over Monmouth County. There could be a small 1-3" area there under the heaviest precip for the longest duration. Too bad this is during daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 White rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Big shift north on the ukie compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 White rain Maybe not even white rain. The HRRR says plain rain. Maybe the NAM is wrong about it being cold enough for major accumulating snow south of NYC through NJ. RGEM looks pretty warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 The 1/2 inch isopleth is a stone's throw south of the South Shore of Long Island...and likely within the model's potential range of error. This thing is far from resolved...and chances are (as Johnny Mathis would say)...it could still get *very* snowy out over the Long Island late in the afternoon on Saturday, 9 April, 2016. After reviewing this morning's 8z RAP animation, I am absolutely convinced that a major Spring snowstorm will take place today, 9 April 2016 out over Long Island. Practically everyone will be caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 After reviewing this morning's 8z RAP animation, I am absolutely convinced that a major Spring snowstorm will take place today, 9 April 2016 out over Long Island. Practically everyone will be caught off guard. The HRRR is definitely north of most of the globals and high res models. The 06Z NAM and RGEM are north too. The thing is that the HRRR, which normally is good on ptype shows virtually zero snow. I'm not sure I buy that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 I agree with both of you. The look is wagons North on the precip but with some early morning sun, will it be cold enough for snow in lower elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 The new HRRR has zero snow, none. It shows all rain, start to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 The new HRRR has zero snow, none. It shows all rain, start to finish the .50 line is south of the city, so the rates won't be heavy enough to cool the column....that assumes anything gets to the city and north at all. In the meantime, it's totally clear here and 27 degrees-nice sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Overnight, things grew less favorable for accumulating snow from NYC northward. For example, unlike with the bullish 21z SREF, which had 56% of members with measurable snowfall and 48% with 1" or more, the 3z run slashed those figures to 41% and 33% respectively. Furthermore, ahead of the clipper, much of the region has started out partly to mostly sunny. The temperature will likely rise into the lower and middle 40s. With the heaviest precipitation missing to the south, the column very likely won't cool sufficiently to promote much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 After reviewing this morning's 8z RAP animation, I am absolutely convinced that a major Spring snowstorm will take place today, 9 April 2016 out over Long Island. Practically everyone will be caught off guard. Good luck with your forecast on this one. No model support to speak of for this outcome. Only way it happens is if a heavy band were to set up over your area during the day. For now that setup is expected over eastern PA / western / central NJ. Then again you folks on LI have been on a winning streak this winter with snow events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Temps are rising pretty quickly now, up to 32 here. I have my doubts on seeing much snow unless we get under the heavier banding. Certainly still a nowcasting event in my opinion but I would keep expectations low and see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 For those holding out a small hope: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY652 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072-074-075-078>081-176>179-092000-HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-652 AM EDT SAT APR 9 2016LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE DELMARVA COAST THIS MORNING...ANDTHEN TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLYINTENSIFIES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGIONLATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN SHOULD BEGINMIXING WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IFPRECIPITATION REMAINS LIGHT...LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONWOULD BE EXPECTED.THERE IS THOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVYPRECIPITATION BAND TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THISAFTERNOON BEFORE PULLING EAST THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...THERAIN AND SNOW MIX WOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO A MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOW WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOONINTO EVENING BE PREPARED FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND THE ACCOMPANYINGSIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.MONITOR NWS FORECASTS TODAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Temps are rising pretty quickly now, up to 32 here. I have my doubts on seeing much snow unless we get under the heavier banding. Certainly still a nowcasting event in my opinion but I would keep expectations low and see how things play out. This morning's sun will certain help temps move into the 40's and quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Temp now up to 38, very fast temperature rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Just seeing flakes will be a positive. Lets see what happens today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Rtd208, on 09 Apr 2016 - 07:56 AM, said:Temp now up to 38, very fast temperature rise. Yeah calm winds, clear skies early this am radiated down to 29, clouds increasing now, east wind blowing...temp up 10 degrees in past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Just seeing flakes will be a positive. Lets see what happens today If the RGEM is right, you won't see any precip at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 If the RGEM is right, you won't see any precip at all! That looks north of the recent runs. I am on thr south shore so any slight shift would be good for here .I dont care about accumulations. Just give me flakes flying in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Brian5671, on 09 Apr 2016 - 08:09 AM, said: If the RGEM is right, you won't see any precip at all! Sharp gradient...that map has my area in the 0.75"+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 That proximity of banding to the south shore of LI and NYC is exactly what the NWS was talking about in their special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 That proximity of banding to the south shore of LI and NYC is exactly what the NWS was talking about in their special weather statement. Won't take a big shift north to put most of the city and NNJ in the heavier banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 That proximity of banding to the south shore of LI and NYC is exactly what the NWS was talking about in their special weather statement. Close call and tough forecast-a 20 mile shift either way is the difference for millions of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Makes no difference. Hrrr is getting warmer every run. Even under the banding, it now shows little to no accumulations for almost anyone and in fact precip type maps are rain. Even under the 40dbz band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Makes no difference. Hrrr is getting warmer every run. Even under the banding, it now shows little to no accumulations for almost anyone and in fact precip type maps are rain. Even under the 40dbz band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 In Central Jersey and Mt holly forecast for my area is rain and 41...does not even mention snow in the forecast..only in their full disco release so they talk about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.