Ralph Wiggum Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GGEM is north of the RGEM, GEFS is also a tick north of the 6z run.CRAS doesnt get a flake/raindrop North of the m/d line. Targets DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Through 18 hrs the S/W on the EURO is stronger compared to the 00z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 euro looks like the ukmet. btw last night's eps was south of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Through 18 hrs the S/W on the EURO is stronger compared to the 00z run... Dr. No strikes again...looks like the other foreign guidance more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Would not want to be Mount Holly or Upton now. But if I was I think I'd just go 2-4 everyone.You are not getting an area wide 2-4 inches tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Dr. No strikes again...looks like the other foreign guidance more south. It came well north and matches every model with the placement of the band. It's actually further north then a couple of the models. NYC is in the middle of banding on the euro. Euro just has less precip because it usually struggles with events that involve convection and synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Euro is north of 12z. Going towards the gfs once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You are not getting an area wide 2-4 inches tomorrow Just in the heavier banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Euro is north of 12z. Going towards the gfs once again. This new euro has been bad with a south and east bias. I would be more inclined to discount it if the RGEM and ukmet weren't also south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Euro is north of 12z. Going towards the gfs once again.0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It came well north and matches every model with the placement of the band. It's actually further north then a couple of the models. NYC is in the middle of banding on the euro. Euro just has less precip because it usually struggles with events that involve convection and synoptics. Here's to hoping the GFS and NAM are right against all the other models which are more south to some extent. Convection and p-TYPES make this a high bust potential forecast either way with a small shift north to the more southern guidance or south on the American in later runs. Accumulations will be based on where the band sets up since light precip won't cool the column enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You are not getting an area wide 2-4 inches tomorrow Agreed. 12z GFS also has bad timing, 1"-1.5" of wet slush is my call. Gone in an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It came well north and matches every model with the placement of the band. It's actually further north then a couple of the models. NYC is in the middle of banding on the euro. Euro just has less precip because it usually struggles with events that involve convection and synoptics. Do we know if this banding that the Euro is showing over the area is snow on this run? I would assume since it's not as heavy on the Euro that it's showing more of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Do we know if this banding that the Euro is showing over the area is snow on this run? I would assume since it's not as heavy on the Euro that it's showing more of a mix. Probably a mix or non-accumulating snow on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Sref? .5" line to Staten Island. About 25-40 miles north of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 NAM has no QPF for NYC and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 NAM has no QPF for NYC and north So within 40 miles, IF under the band, somone can jackpot with half foot of snow while someone to he north may see sprinkles and a few flakes!. Lovely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Upton forecast update shows they don't think really much of anything snow wise happens. Everything shifted south. Time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This is the type of system where small errors can have a large impact. Right now, there remains a possibility of measurable snow in the New York City area, but it appears that the probability of such snowfall is higher from Newark and southward. The NAM has had poor run-to-run continuity, which highlights the amount of uncertainty. The most recent SREF plumes for LGA had an increase in expected mean snowfall from the 9z run. The 15z mean snowfall figure was 1.6" vs. 1.2" at 9z. However, the percentage of SREF members showing measurable snowfall decreased from 59% on the 9z run to 52% on the 15z run. There was an increase in the percentage of plumes showing 1" or more (37% vs. 26%). Finally, reflecting what may be an increase in uncertainty despite the shrinking forecast horizon, the 95% confidence range continued to widen. In sum, even as we're less than 24 hours from the event, the idea that NYC will see measurable snowfall remains a fairly low confidence proposition. If the SREF plumes are reasonably representative, it's almost a coin toss so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Euro just has less precip because it usually struggles with events that involve convection and synoptics. That pretty much covers everything. Not good for a weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Upton forecast update shows they don't think really much of anything snow wise happens. Everything shifted south. Time will tell.. they have a 70% chance of rain and snow here, yet most models show SW CT to be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 gfs is south. enjoy the light rain showers tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 gfs is south. enjoy the light rain showers tomorrow!The NAM and GFS have trended to the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 gfs is south. enjoy the light rain showers tomorrow!Good that means I don't have to cancel my date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Good that means I don't have to cancel my date.mHave fun! Asbury film fest this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Looks like Sref bumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Good that means I don't have to cancel my date. I don't think I would cancel anyway for a slushy inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Wow nam has nothing for nyc north. Alot of precip for south central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 9, 2016 Share Posted April 9, 2016 Wow nam has nothing for nyc north. Alot of precip for south central NJ. Seasonal trend continues into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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