bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Kind of looks like the blizzard's snowfall pattern...with some obvious differences. You can see that the convective band shifting a few miles can make a big difference for any given point on the map. Almost like a summer thunderstorm forecast with a low pressure system involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 12z GFS is nearly identical to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That dark blue dot in south west Morris County on the 48hr 12z is right over my house. Not that it will happen, but it would be nice to be leading the state in snow fall from a storm. I always upvote Morris County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You can see that the convective band shifting a few miles can make a big difference for any given point on the map. Almost like a summer thunderstorm forecast with a low pressure system involved. namconus_ref_frzn_neus_11.png Yeah or like an inverted trough. Going to be fun / aggravating to see where this band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 GFS goes nuts with storm/precip as well in C/N NJ and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 i love that its ripping snow in southern LI and raining on the north shore. Unless its the fall and the sound is 60 degrees and the wind is from the NE, that isnt happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I know surface is a problem but it's really cold aloft and gfs and Nam really hit those bands hard. I could see a few surprises tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 wow @ GFS for JUST W/NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 i love that its ripping snow in southern LI and raining on the north shore. Unless its the fall and the sound is 60 degrees and the wind is from the NE, that isnt happening. It's the location of the 40dbz IVT band. If you're not under it, you're raining or non-accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This reminds me of November 7-8 2012 in a sense. Snowfall accumulations are going to vary all over the place because of mesoscale banding. Someone is going to get really lucky & someone is going to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Chances are increasing for someone in this forum (NW NJ, NE NJ, NYC, S NY, W NJ) to see 3-6" from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That 12" blob on the GFS is going to move every model run and is going to be really hard to pinpoint. Obviously I'd cut it in half to be more realistic, but I think someone in PA/NJ gets 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That there is the best model fantasy run for my region in April in the history of the internet, half would be awesome and match my greatest April snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That's a wicked band on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This reminds me of November 7-8 2012 in a sense. Snowfall accumulations are going to vary all over the place because of mesoscale banding. Someone is going to get really lucky & someone is going to get screwed. That event came to mind regarding this system however cold air was a bit more entrenched and we didn't have the high sun angle/bad timing we do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Just look @ this, if it was winter right now we'd be hella-excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 i love that its ripping snow in southern LI and raining on the north shore. Unless its the fall and the sound is 60 degrees and the wind is from the NE, that isnt happening. It's very easy for that to happen if the GFS is correct, if. The intense lifting under the heavy meso band causes dynamic cooling of the column, so it snows. In the areas adjacent to the band, with light to moderate precip, it's rain. Plus, this occurs during the day and there will be big time boundary layer temp issues tomorrow to top it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 You can't take the amounts the gfs is showing in PA and W NJ lightly. This will be a 2003 redox if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This reminds me of November 7-8 2012 in a sense. Snowfall accumulations are going to vary all over the place because of mesoscale banding. Someone is going to get really lucky & someone is going to get screwed. The convective banding signal is great with midlevel lapse rates looking more like a Midwest summer EML severe than a late season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Waiting patiently for the Brazilian, MAM and the Panasonic to weigh in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Ukie has heavy banding just to the south of NYC. Slight shift north would be good for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I wonder if that blob on the UKIE @ 36 hours is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 RGEM south the American guidance also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 RGEM south the American guidance also. PR_000-048_0000.gif SN_000-048_0000.gif GGEM is north of the RGEM, GEFS is also a tick north of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GGEM is north of the RGEM, GEFS is also a tick north of the 6z run. Big bust potential tomorrow either way with the convective banding combined with p-TYPE changeover locations and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Big bust potential tomorrow either way with the convective banding combined with p-TYPE changeover locations and timing. It would be insane if central Jersey ends up the winners here with the intense banding. Here is the navgem. Banding into NYC and inland areas. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_atlantic&dtg=2016040812∏=prpτ=036&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Would not want to be Mount Holly or Upton now. But if I was I think I'd just go 2-4 everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Would not want to be Mount Holly or Upton now. But if I was I think I'd just go 2-4 everyone. I would go with coating to 2" for NYC and LI, 2"-4" for west of the city. They can always adjust up or down after the 18z and 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I would go with coating to 2" for NYC and LI, 2"-4" for west of the city. They can always adjust up or down after the 18z and 0z suite. Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 It would be insane if central Jersey ends up the winners here with the intense banding. Here is the navgem. Banding into NYC and inland areas. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_atlantic&dtg=2016040812∏=prpτ=036&set=All 4KM NAM would make the CNJ crew very happy also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.