snowman19 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Gfs looks simuliar to 12zNot really, it took a trend towards the Euro/EPS IMO. Look aloft, not at the snow maps. 0z runs will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Not really, it took a trend towards the Euro/EPS IMO. Look aloft, not at the snow maps. 0z runs will be interesting I did. Looks similiar. Like you said 0z will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Nam has snow to the south of the area and then west of the area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Gfs is further north than the nam with the trough. Goes right through nyc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Great hit for inland areas on Gfs and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Great hit for inland areas on Gfs and ggem I must be looking at the wrong ggem model. I don't look at it that much, but it seemed south with the best precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I must be looking at the wrong ggem model. I don't look at it that much, but it seemed south with the best precip. Yeah you have to go to PA to get decent snow on the GGEM. It looks nothing like GFS. Don't know what he was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Again, these inverted trough type setups are impossible to rely on. The upper air pattern looks impressive, but a 50 mile or so band of snow and heavy precip (could be rain for much of it if it's daytime and near an urban area-the NAM at least keeps it well above freezing for the first part anyway) looks to be the result. Anyone either side of where that band sets up will get jipped. This probably ends up a nowcast event. These do tend to edge north at the end, so maybe that could be good for the immediate NYC area if models target I-195 now? Or it could be Rockland/Westchester/S CT? Impossible to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Yeah you have to go to PA to get decent snow on the GGEM. It looks nothing like GFS. Don't know what he was looking at. GFS is rain for 75% of it or more near NYC and along the coast. It all happens during the day, and heavy precip falls when it's 38-42F in NYC. The tail end might be some light snow/mix as it pulls away. Rocklnd/Westchester/I-287 look to have a better period of snow that can accumulate. This pretty much has to be a perfect setup with max dynamics around NYC and Long Island for there to be more than a slushy inch, since this will be during the daytime, and models suggest time to warm to 40F or higher before the real precip starts. I'd much rather be in the hills along I-287 or Rockland County. And even there depends a lot on where the 50 mile band parks itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 GFS is rain for 75% of it or more near NYC and along the coast. It all happens during the day, and heavy precip falls when it's 38-42F in NYC. The tail end might be some light snow/mix as it pulls away. Rocklnd/Westchester/I-287 look to have a better period of snow that can accumulate. This pretty much has to be a perfect setup with max dynamics around NYC and Long Island for there to be more than a slushy inch, since this will be during the daytime, and models suggest time to warm to 40F or higher before the real precip starts. I'd much rather be in the hills along I-287 or Rockland County. And even there depends a lot on where the 50 mile band parks itself. 0z GFS snowmap shows 4 to 5 inches for NYC, but I know those snowmaps are less likely to be accurate during borderline temps in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 0z GFS snowmap shows 4 to 5 inches for NYC, but I know those snowmaps are less likely to be accurate during borderline temps in April. Looking at the PSU meteo site for temps, they look to be marginal, and that's being very generous for around NYC. Precip falling at 40F is almost certainly rain, and temps don't really dip below that until the precip is ending. West of the city in the hillier elevations looks better for maybe a few inches. Maybe the GFS isn't being generous enough with dynamic cooling, but even the NAM is showing the front at least half of heavy precip falling well above freezing near the coast in NJ. This being during the day is bad for you, and also this being so localized. This isn't like a large CCB that can create a larger area of cooling, or this happening at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Looking at the PSU meteo site for temps, they look to be marginal, and that's being very generous for around NYC. Precip falling at 40F is almost certainly rain, and temps don't really dip below that until the precip is ending. West of the city in the hillier elevations looks better for maybe a few inches. Maybe the GFS isn't being generous enough with dynamic cooling, but even the NAM is showing the front at least half of heavy precip falling well above freezing near the coast in NJ. This being during the day is bad for you, and also this being so localized. This isn't like a large CCB that can create a larger area of cooling, or this happening at night. This may not get in here as fast as we think...especially to the east...and assuming it works in...after 3 PM, I think the sun factor really diminishes and if it really comes down...you might have a nice accumulation in spots. This thing has *a lot* of energy associated with it (including some very cold air aloft) and is potentially a *very* dynamic weather maker. I'm going to watch the factors gather...but those in the system's path could be in for quite a surprise...i.e. 5 to 10 inches of heavy wet snow...maybe even a bit more if it has all the elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 This may not get in here as fast as we think...especially to the east...and assuming it works in...after 3 PM, I think the sun factor really diminishes and if it really comes down...you might have a nice accumulation in spots. This thing has *a lot* of energy associated with it (including some very cold air aloft) and is potentially a *very* dynamic weather maker. I'm going to watch the factors gather...but those in the system's path could be in for quite a surprise...i.e. 5 to 10 inches of heavy wet snow...maybe even a bit more if it has all the elements. Ehh, Mt.Pamela in Smithtown's always good for at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 The Euro has some drizzle south of i84 and nothing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 The Euro has some drizzle south of i84 and nothing north. Now who are you going to believe...a flawed simulation...or Me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Models seems to be pulling off, for a weaker solution... 00z GFS looked really nice, 06z now looks similar to nam/euro, albeit still the snowiest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Models seems to be pulling off, for a weaker solution... 00z GFS looked really nice, 06z now looks similar to nam/euro, albeit still the snowiest most modeling now keeping most if not all of the QPF south and west of NYC...could end up dry north and east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 most modeling now keeping most if not all of the QPF south and west of NYC...could end up dry north and east of the city Good. Let's just get some warm weather in here already. Flag football starts on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Good. Let's just get some warm weather in here already. Flag football starts on Saturday my boys' little league starts tomorrow-don't need drizzle and light rain and 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 That's been the theme since early March when the big storms including the blizzard have slipped to our south Imagine if it didn't slip to our south...maybe JFK would have got 40 inches instead of 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Final model trends occur inside of 36 hours. Not 60+ hours out. The 1st 9z/12z model, srefs, just got much more organized and wetter for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 JFK already has 40 this year. Virtually the same as last year with much less cold. So this was the big warm up and snow winter for us. I think Pam is stating 40 from the storm itself, not for the season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Final model trends occur inside of 36 hours. Not 60+ hours out. The 1st 9z/12z model, srefs, just got much more organized and wetter for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Some historic snowfall statistics for April 9 and later: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 I think Pam is stating 40 from the storm itself, not for the season.... Detecting satire is a skill; some have it...some do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 Detecting satire is a skill; some have it...some do not. But how could that be since Richmond never had a 40" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 But how could that be since Richmond never had a 40" snowstorm. If you can draw a diagram of the hypothetical you are constructing (or attempting to formulate)...it might help. Everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 But how could that be since Richmond never had a 40" snowstorm. A 40 incher is almost reserved for places well inland that have some upslope effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 8, 2016 Share Posted April 8, 2016 A 40 incher is almost reserved for places well inland that have some upslope effect. It was just returning the humor in the original post.Though..a 40 incher would be nice if there wasn't a sudden melt afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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