Zelocita Weather Posted April 6, 2016 Share Posted April 6, 2016 12z NAM depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted April 6, 2016 Author Share Posted April 6, 2016 Looks like GFS has something similar forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Discuss...Image Courtesy of Board member NorthShoreWx...whose permission to borrow images I hope I still have: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Is the Nam really saying possible 6 to 8 inches ? Amazing if this happens,,,ps if it did happen it would be " the best " for certain parts of the area this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Is the Nam really saying possible 6 to 8 inches ? Amazing if this happens,,,ps if it did happen it would be " the best " for certain parts of the area this year Yes Brazil it looks good...until the next model run at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Is the Nam really saying possible 6 to 8 inches ? Amazing if this happens,,,ps if it did happen it would be " the best " for certain parts of the area this year And close to 10" for central LI. Meanwhile, it shows 1" for High Point NJ. How long has that been the case? You can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 And close to 10" for central LI. Meanwhile, it shows 1" for High Point NJ. How long has that been the case? You can't make this stuff up. The temperatures at 850 mb look to be around -5 C on the NAM...that's pretty cold...if the snow can hold off till about 3 PM Saturday...we've got a pretty fair shot for it to pile up...especially in the countryside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 The temperatures at 850 mb look to be around -5 C on the NAM...that's pretty cold...if the snow can hold off till about 3 PM Saturday...we've got a pretty fair shot for it to pile up. Idk Pam. This looks very marginal. 850 temps of -5 in April are "meh" but they could get the job done if surface temps are below freezing. The NAM verbatim seems to be above freezing at the suface. White rain is the most likely outcome if the NAM is correct. There I go discussing the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 GFS is very nice for NWNJ and the far NW suburbs in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Morris, on 06 Apr 2016 - 11:59 PM, said:GFS is very nice for NWNJ and the far NW suburbs in NY. You aint kidding. Pretty much 5-7 inches for areas 15+ miles north, west, or northwest of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Idk Pam. This looks very marginal. 850 temps of -5 in April are "meh" but they could get the job done if surface temps are below freezing. The NAM verbatim seems to be above freezing at the suface. White rain is the most likely outcome if the NAM is correct. There I go discussing the NAM... It would help if the onset of precip is delayed by about 4 hours from what the NAM is showing...so the sun can get low in the western horizon. The further east you are; the later it will start...as is par for the course. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160407+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Beautiful closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 In fairness, the April 1, 1997 storm was better than the April 10, 1996 one in northern NJ and interior SE NY...where more than 20 inches fell in the high spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 In fairness, the April 1, 1997 storm was better than the April 10, 1996 one in northern NJ and interior SE NY...where more than 30 inches fell in the high spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Results looks better than when I ran through the animation site... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Looks as if all models now showing appreciable snow here in NE PA. I'm not too worried about temps at 1600' with -10C 850s but rather whether this blossoms in time from a clipper to a coastal. Could throw back a lot of moisture with the temperature gradient in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Looks to be a small coastal that gets going a little to late for us. SNE looks the place to be for this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Idk Pam. This looks very marginal. 850 temps of -5 in April are "meh" but they could get the job done if surface temps are below freezing. The NAM verbatim seems to be above freezing at the suface. White rain is the most likely outcome if the NAM is correct. There I go discussing the NAM... Sort of disagree here. This is a strong arctic airmass with -20C 850s into New England. Temperatures will cool down comsiderably Friday night in preparation for this event. You have a very impressive shortwave with a nearly closed 700mb low and big temperature gradients. Probably mostly snow in all suburbs, City starts as a mix and ends with a slushy coating. Could be OK for Central Park, too, if it trends a little deeper/organizes faster. Again, this is a very unusual airmass and pattern for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Sort of disagree here. This is a strong arctic airmass with -20C 850s into New England. Temperatures will cool down comsiderably Friday night in preparation for this event. You have a very impressive shortwave with a nearly closed 700mb low and big temperature gradients. Probably mostly snow in all suburbs, City starts as a mix and ends with a slushy coating. Could be OK for Central Park, too, if it trends a little deeper/organizes faster. Again, this is a very unusual airmass and pattern for April. I was speaking of the NAM verbatim which you won't often see me do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 FWIW, Upton going with 1 to 3 inches of snow for NYC on Saturday. Would work for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 FWIW, Upton going with 1 to 3 inches of snow for NYC on Saturday. Would work for me... A Suffolk JP would match the seasonal pattern if the current forecast verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Upton A LATE SEASON SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND ARE SIGNALING LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSING OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...THE WET BULB EFFECT FROM FALLING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN LIGHT ACCUMULATING WET SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 What happened to the GFS solution of higher snows in the suburbs? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Nam is nice for interior areas. Nothing on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 Nam is nice for interior areas. Nothing on the coast. Need a little elevation for snow on April 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 7, 2016 Share Posted April 7, 2016 This is a very fragile system that could easily collapse to nothing for people near the coast. I never liked these inverted trough type setups. Plus, obviously it's April now. But if it does come together there could be surprises. This one might come down to a now cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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