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April 3, 2016 Snowblitz Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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I was a bit surprised how much qpf was wasted at the onset near and east of 128...I knew it would be some, but I expected a bit quicker accumulation than what happened.

 

But regardless, hard to complain too much about this event given how lightning fast it was moving.

 

I was surprised too... thought we would do a little better given the snow rates.

 

In retrospect, I wonder if this was an underestimate of specific heat capacity of all that warm water already accumulated on a warm road (ie takes longer for wet ground surface to cool enough to allow accumulation than would otherwise occur on a dry surface with same 2m temps). I assume guidance has no way to factor that in, so it will overestimate snow accumulation that follows heavy rain. And we really had only 4 hours to get the job done, so that could have been a more significant factor than usual.

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I was surprised too... thought we would do a little better given the snow rates.

 

In retrospect, I wonder if this was an underestimate of specific heat capacity of all that warm water already accumulated on a warm road (ie takes longer for wet ground surface to cool enough to allow accumulation than would otherwise occur on a dry surface with same 2m temps). I assume guidance has no way to factor that in, so it will overestimate snow accumulation that follows heavy rain. And we really had only 4 hours to get the job done, so that could have been a more significant factor than usual.

I've got no scientific capability to prove it, but I've always had that theory as well.

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Well at least it was something...I thought you'd do better early this morning. Seems like even when things look decent, the radar just falls apart when it gets to NW MA, lol...every time.

But it won't stop me for next system...I think you'll do decent tomorrow.

Well, I had just under 1" in the 4am burst.

Up in MPM land now and looks like about 2" here.

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Surprised my old hood in Brookline Village per wxniss did poorly. Here I have a winter wonderland with encrusted trees and crushed daffodils....did not measure but it's at least 3. Elevation ftw? Just a couple of hundred feet made the difference I guess.

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I am not sure if I am more amazed with your location, Kevin's or Steve's over the past fifteen years or so....it's like the bermuda triangle for heavy snow, in a good way lol

I know....its driving me $hithouse.

 

As soon as I saw the models converge on that area, it was over.

I said like 2 days ago, Ginxy special.

I let some mid level myths of northerly shifts sway me.......not sure why.

One guess at where the relevance tmw will occur.....withoiut eve looking at guidance.

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