ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 We are now getting inside of 4 days for this thread and guidance has been remarkably consistent on a wave developing along the thermal boundary that is left behind the arctic cold front this weekend. The dynamics are not exceptional in this in terms of mid-level centers but there is some solid ML fronto and a slight bit of inflow from the south. Here is the 00z Euro plot.... Right now, this doesn't look like a really big system, but it could drop perhaps low end warning criteria snow in a stripe where the best ML forcing occurs...which at the moment looks to be somewhere near the pike region perhaps into S VT/NH.... I'll note that the GGEM and UKMET are further north than this...though they have been drifting south. If they are closer to correct then this would favor more CNE than SNE. Guidance has also sped up the timing versus a couple days ago...now mostly a Monday/Mon night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yeah I think north of 90 into SVT/SNH is the sweet spot..probably closer to the MA border of VT/NH. We'll see how this goes over the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 While not the jack. I'm expecting snow here 10 miles from the Mass border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Hopefully I can sneak a third warning event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 MPM and GreenFieldHippie's biggest event of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The hubb man jacks again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Not sure how much everyone actually gets seems it will be above freezing its early april and rates may not be that great so probably a lot of melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Not sure how much everyone actually gets seems it will be above freezing its early april and rates may not be that great so probably a lot of melting I think during the event the temps will be aob freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 sounds meh, sunday sounds more interesting right now anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 MPM and GreenFieldHippie's biggest event of the year? Would not surprise me if it was. 4.1" would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Two days ago, models were showing low-end warning criteria for the foothills. Now it's a whiff. awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Good luck guys...glad you've been able to salvage some events in the worst winter ever, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Two days ago, models were showing low-end warning criteria for the foothills. Now it's a whiff. awt Winter 2015-16...the one that keeps on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 12z NAM looks south with the main precip shield and low placement compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Two days ago, models were showing low-end warning criteria for the foothills. Now it's a whiff. awt Yeah, It was apparent to me it was slip sliding away over the course of the last couple days, I did not make the investment in it, But good luck to the ones that are in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Winter 2015-16...the one that keeps on taking. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 firstly, lots of possibilities still in the table with this event - no one from BTV to PHL (really...) is out of the game entirely. there is really no room here for grousing. secondly, the governing mechanics are still safely out over the open ocean of the far east Pacific, and securely NOT in the more dense empirical part of the initialization grid. regardless of what modelers and/or proud nws employees may argue, a-priori experience has shown that systems sometimes do morph rather abruptly when that relay over land actually happens. in their favor ...not that often - no. but, it does happen sometimes enough to argue assimilation can have holes. having said that, said relay begins in earnest 24 hours from this morning's 12z initialization. as is it probably doesn't matter much for determinism because every ensemble there is known to the technology of this science has persisted with at least a minor to perhaps low end moderate snow event. BUT, should something more robust get relayed than that could/would likely up the ante here. one thing I am also noticing though is that the season's plague of wave interference could become an issue here, as the next wave is already pressing east out of the west just 84 to 96 hours from now. that feature is the one the models have been toying around with being a more important closed event here in the E... the flow is fast and loaded energetically and things can mutate quickly in the runs; don't be surprised if mutations occur through this weekend - they will anyway, but bigger ones too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Two days ago, models were showing low-end warning criteria for the foothills. Now it's a whiff. awt It's not a wiff yet because Forky hasn't showed up to state such. That is the only reason he posts in the New England Forum. I would expect to see him in here soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 who cares about a few inches of snow when bufkit shows 50 kts in a deep mixed layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 who cares about a few inches of snow when bufkit shows 50 kts in a deep mixed layer shhh - don't bring up meteorology in here; you do so at own risk. j/k... i think there is a thread for the 'wild' weather this weekend - no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 12z Euro is south of 0z for the monday event nice hit for the pike region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 Euro looks solid again...esp pike region. Might be a tick south vs previous runs, so better for N CT/N RI than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 Pretty decent thermal gradient at the sfc near the S MA border...its in the 20s pike northward at 18z on Monday...that is impressive this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Euro looks solid again...esp pike region. Might be a tick south vs previous runs, so better for N CT/N RI than previously. Yup. I'm afraid of the S tics. I get out of the best, and its crap pretty fast. Is the best south of me there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Verbatim Euro is probably too warm here in Death Valley for big issues on Monday though we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 Verbatim Euro is probably too warm here in Death Valley for big issues on Monday though we'll see. 28F and snow for codfishsnowman and 34F with non-accumulating snow in West Hartford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 28F and snow for codfishsnowman and 34F with non-accumulating snow in West Hartford? How we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Quite the needle threader for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 28F and snow for codfishsnowman and 34F with non-accumulating snow in West Hartford?Hiw was it for hill towns,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 28F and snow for codfishsnowman and 34F with non-accumulating snow in West Hartford? Am I in trouble that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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