WEATHER53 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Very Hot 50 90+ readings 3. 100+ All 3 months +1 to +3 Rainfall below average but not drought conditions Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Active tropical season not surprising given the likely Nina conditions and warm Atlantic SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Great. If there is one thing we always do well, its heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I view long range summer forecasting in the same light as long range winter forecasting. Easy to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I'm pumped for a hot tropical season. It's been really lame for a long time. I like to at least track a few hurricanes. Im tired of wind shear and dust from Africa. If we can get some exciting weather, that would be a bonus imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 had a feeling this summer would blow. More canes would be the only interesting feature to watch for. Its the "we're due!" thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Lets do this. Epic torch with a Mid Atlantic tropical cyclone that will make Isabel look like a passing shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Really hoping this is the year we record legit hurricane sustained at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Prepping the AC teninch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted May 2, 2016 Author Share Posted May 2, 2016 Cosgrove likes it becoming really hot late July and thru September June and July around average and then August +3 Tropical 7 hurricanes and 2 majors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 God I hate summers here. I loathe the heat & humidity with every fiber of my being. I'm generally fine living here during the fall, winter, and spring, but oh how I wish I could live in Seattle from approximately mid May - mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 God I hate summers here. I loathe the heat & humidity with every fiber of my being. I'm generally fine living here during the fall, winter, and spring, but oh how I wish I could live in Seattle from approximately mid May - mid September. Do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 i can get down with some epic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted May 4, 2016 Share Posted May 4, 2016 Do it. Wish I could. Can't work remotely for 4 months, nor can I take 4 months off. Best summer ever was 2010 when I had to travel to San Diego every other week for work. Walking out of the San Diego airport and feeling the refreshing ocean breeze made me so happy. I loved waking up each morning with the coastal stratus overhead, only to see it burn off each afternoon. The sunrays were certainly strong, but the ocean breeze helped moderate the air temperature. I dream of West Coast summers, whether it be San Diego, Seattle, or somewhere in between. (outside of summer I enjoy the variability of spring & fall here on the East Coast, as well as the occasional big nor'easter and/or blizzard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 Cosgrove nailed this trough being historically slow to leave and lets see if his idea of after June 20 for any sustained summer weather and late July before the torrid heat machine sets in come true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Here's my summer outlook. Think we largely return to a 2010-2012 type summer overall in the US. July or August (favoring July) for the warmest departures relative to normal, though I think all three months are above normal. Enhanced 90F days vs the past three summers. Precip sub normal, but convection could occasionally be interesting if we position the mid-level ridge in the Mid-west at times. We'll see on that. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Would probably go 45-50 90F days in DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Your stuff was great during the winter. I learned a lot. I can only hope you're spot on about this summer. I'm looking for a classic DC torch. It's also interesting that you're going with additional precipitation in the southeast due to tropical activity. Like you, I think I'm favoring more "homebrew" development with a more active Gulf and western Atlantic/Caribbean with decreased wind shear as a result of our transition to Nina conditions. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the overall pattern shifts as a result of this ENSO transition. With the strength of the NINO, my wag is normal to above precip. Wet or dry, though, this summer should be miserable unless we fluke with well AN precip to hold down temps, but a sauna nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Your stuff was great during the winter. I learned a lot. I can only hope you're spot on about this summer. I'm looking for a classic DC torch. It's also interesting that you're going with additional precipitation in the southeast due to tropical activity. Like you, I think I'm favoring more "homebrew" development with a more active Gulf and western Atlantic/Caribbean with decreased wind shear as a result of our transition to Nina conditions. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the overall pattern shifts as a result of this ENSO transition. Thanks Wxwatcher - appreciate the kind words! I agree w/ you concerning the enhanced tropical development potential closer to the US mainland this year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a named storm pop up within the next couple weeks as we see lowering of heights underneath anomalous ridging in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 1, 2016 Author Share Posted July 1, 2016 Good start with June +1 so edge of bullseye Tropic was busy but 90+ short so far Cosgrove still thinks real and lengthy heat 2-3 weeks away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Good start with June +1 so edge of bullseye Tropic was busy but 90+ short so far Cosgrove still thinks real and lengthy heat 2-3 weeks away Real and lengthy heat.... not a bold statement since the average then is around 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 4, 2016 Author Share Posted July 4, 2016 We have not had any real and lengthy heat yet so it is a solid prediction to forecast the onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2016 Share Posted July 5, 2016 We have not had any real and lengthy heat yet so it is a solid prediction to forecast the onset My point is that around average to slightly above would be hot this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 29, 2016 Author Share Posted July 29, 2016 On March 31, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Very Hot 50 90+ readings 3. 100+ All 3 months +1 to +3 Rainfall below average but not drought conditions Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212 Looks like July is going to be a dead center bullseye. Number of 90+ on track and even a 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 28, 2016 Author Share Posted August 28, 2016 On March 31, 2016 at 2:47 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Very Hot 50 90+ readings 3. 100+ All 3 months +1 to +3 Rainfall below average but not drought conditions Most interesting is that he thinks the tropical season will come back with a vengeance with the eastern seaboard being very active from late August into October As an aside our forecasting services have now expanded into a dozen states. When the phone company discontinued we were hired by DCCOG and now Pepco is a major sponsor We took over an active number which was getting 2,500 to 5,000 calls per day and that number is now up to 20,000 on routine days and over 50,000 during snow or severe events. You can reach us at 202-589-1212 Just about perfection. This month will be outside the +1 to +3 but bullseyed the previous two and the overall 47 90+ so far so the 50 call looking very good. Called for 3 100+ and there have been 4 rainfall around average in general and he thought drier , the tropical reference also looks to be right on winter outlook coming together and will have in about 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 Definitely nailed the summer call. A+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 7, 2016 Share Posted September 7, 2016 Just about perfection. This month will be outside the +1 to +3 but bullseyed the previous two and the overall 47 90+ so far so the 50 call looking very good. Called for 3 100+ and there have been 4 rainfall around average in general and he thought drier , the tropical reference also looks to be right on winter outlook coming together and will have in about 3 weeks Excellent call. For long range outlooks, this is about as good as it gets in my opinion. Applying some leeway for the uncertainties of summer mesoscale convection, I think this forecast deserves an "A" grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 7, 2016 Author Share Posted September 7, 2016 Excellent call. For long range outlooks, this is about as good as it gets in my opinion. Applying some leeway for the uncertainties of summer mesoscale convection, I think this forecast deserves an "A" grade. Yours was stellar also and Z of CWG again too. There was a lot of hot outlooks but it confirmed. I think 3-5 long rangers here hit 65-70% of the time and we've seen it long enough to know that. Nobody cant get 100 so not even really working off of that scale. 85% would be unreal and no one can do it so 65-70 % is really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 This year's verification (post 10): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Really hope this happens. It's our first summer in a house and that pool is calling! Would be amaze balls to get a 3-day period with 100+ reading regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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