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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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Because the impression from your posts is that its been cool the last 2 months ..not to mention overrelying on indexes to forecast..70s yesterday and will notch another 80 plus today before cooldown..but not the cold week you were talkng about

 

LOL. I pointed out that March was among the warmest with some of the earliest 80's on record. So I am not

sure where you are pulling that fiction out of. April started out with the coldest readings since

1995 and the first two week of below normal temperatures for NYC since March 2015.

While temps have come back to more days AN since then, the blocking kept a lid on

major warmth potential for this time of year. 70's to low 80's is gorgeous weather, but it's

nothing remarkable for late April. The bigger story for March and April will turn out

to be the number of days without rain and overall lack of rain. This also makes

it great for outdoor activities.

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Latest hrrr really skunks most of NYC and Long Island with the afternoon tstorms

east of the hudson was never really in the game imo. however i like the area just sw of manhattan as a focus for storms with the front sitting overhead. up to 73 in springfield now

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Nothing about the outside air here in Newark "feels" like a stormy afternoon. I see the radar and yes it's sunny about 65 but meh. Prove me wrong is what I'm saying

Well, that's a silly thing to say.  To the extent you don't get on the right side of the boundary at the surface, you'll just have elevated convection.  At this point the stable layer near the surface is very shallow, there's tons of unstable air being advected just above the surface. Besides, I'm not sure the surface wont be unstable from about Newark south by the time the storms get here.

 

If this was 3 months later, we'd probably have a TOR risk along the surface boundary.  As is, we'll have some nice elevated storms. 

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And just like that, some deeper cumulus starting to build overhead in downtown manhattan, even though the surface boundary is still right overhead and we haven't gotten into the really good juice at the surface.   Funny how that works.

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Well, that's a silly thing to say.  To the extent you don't get on the right side of the boundary at the surface, you'll just have elevated convection.  At this point the stable layer near the surface is very shallow, there's tons of unstable air being advected just above the surface. Besides, I'm not sure the surface wont be unstable from about Newark south by the time the storms get here.

 

If this was 3 months later, we'd probably have a TOR risk along the surface boundary.  As is, we'll have some nice elevated storms. 

Plus the warm front is still clearing the area. Some areas will jump 10 degrees in a short period of time

 

temperature720.png

 

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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 107
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   155 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     DELAWARE
     NORTHERN MARYLAND
     NEW JERSEY
     THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF PENNSYLVANIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
     900 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...SHORT LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF W-E COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS PA AND NJ LATER
   TODAY...WHERE WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENTS SUGGEST A
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST
   OF LATROBE PENNSYLVANIA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKEHURST NEW
   JERSEY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
   WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106...

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 30040.

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