pazzo83 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015. It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied. How many record cold months have we set in the past 16 years vs record warm months? This is close to the proof by example logical fallacy. Yes, we've had some abnormally cold months, but they've been few and far between. However, warm months in every season have been commonplace, sometimes significantly so. Of the 12 months of the year, three of them were at their warmest in NYC history just last year (Sept, Nov, Dec). In the past 20+ years, no month has seen its coldest reading on record. In fact, the last time NYC set a monthly record for cold (e.g. coldest January on record), Woodrow Wilson was president. In the past 20 years, NYC has 6 of its top 10 warmest months on record (including the top 2), but only one of the top 10 coldest (at #9, Feb 2015). We also have the single greatest positive temperature departure on record for any month in December of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 fwiw the gfs backed off big time on next week's cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 fwiw the gfs backed off big time on next week's cooldown As did the euro. Has 2 coolish days on Wednesday and Thursday but still around 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the Greenland Block. older run model seeing more ridge holding on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Maybe the NW shift in the Gulf Stream closer to the coast is allowing the ridge to hang on more just to our south than the models were seeing earlier? In any event, the ridge doesn't completely flatten out so the backdoor bounces back north more easily. It looks like a tug of war between the Western Atlantic Ridge and the Greenland Block. 160421.112.0654.n19.jpg midatl_oisst_anom_20160419.png older run A.png model seeing more ridge holding on ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png Been like this through the winter. The eastern ridge is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Been like this through the winter. The eastern ridge is too strong. It's a good thing that the record kara block built back across the pole and tanked the -AO. Otherwise we would have crushed 2001-2002 for the warmest winter. We are into the type of patterns in the 2000's where we need exceptional blocking just to temper the record warmth a bit before it eventually rebounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 It's a good thing that the record kara block built back across the pole and tanked the -AO. Otherwise we would have crushed 2001-2002 for the warmest winter. We are into the type of patterns in the 2000's where we need exceptional blocking just to temper the record warmth a bit before it eventually rebounds. Thank god we got that block. Otherwise, the blizzard would have missed the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Huh? February 2015 was one of the coldest months in NYC history at -11.4F, just slightly less impressive than January 1977 and February 1934. Jan-Mar 2015 averaged nearly 7F below normal. November was also below normal three seasons in a row, from Nov 2012 (which featured a major early season snowstorm) through Nov 2014. March was also below normal from 2013 to 2015. It is true, however, that very few months with cold anomalies have occurred in the warm season since the record-breaking chill of Summer 2009. This, though, is luck: climate models actually show the colder months warming faster than the summer in the long run due to additive albedo and radiative effects. So you can't sustain a substantive argument based on any of the points you have made or implied. You are taking an extremely rare anomaly and using it in your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 You know its been at record warmth when the only two week below normal temperature period here since March 2015 was the first two weeks of April. It only took a week to erase the cold departures and NYC is only -0.3 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 12z NAM much drier for Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 12z NAM much drier for Friday night BxEngine will be happy to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 BxEngine will be happy to know. still need it drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 12z NAM much drier for Friday night is this really a surprise? Tough to even buy an extra cloud these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 still need it drier.wet grass tips and dry ground is probably worse than a total deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 12z NAM much drier for Friday night Yep, it's amazing how many Friday's have trended drier in the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I wonder if anyone keeps RH stats for Central Park? Yesterday had a good shot at making it close to the driest hourly reading ever at only 9%. Don't recall seeing many hourly readings under 10% over the years. 17:51 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 67 6 RH 9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 if we stay clear enough tomorrow should hit 80 and erase the negative departure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Red Flag Warning up again for parts of the area .CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID BRUSH FIRE SPREAD THISAFTERNOON...NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-176-178-212200-/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.W.0003.160421T1600Z-160421T2200Z/WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-1057 AM EDT THU APR 21 2016...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A RED FLAGWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING.* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK CITY...ANDSOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY NEW YORK.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 30 PERCENT.* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONSARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOWRELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANTLYELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 RGEM even drier-what rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 RGEM even drier-what rain? If we can just hold this pattern though May, then we'll have our first top ten driest season since 01-02. But past dry stretches have folded after about two months recently so we'll see how much longer the streak can continue. Made it to D0 on the drought monitor this week. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast Driest springs in NYC 1st place 4.95 10th place 7.05 spring 2016 so far 2.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 We are in a dry pattern. No reason why it should be stopped right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Fortunately the winter was pretty wet...had 13.50" here for met winter...I know it was drier to the north however.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Fortunately the winter was pretty wet...had 13.50" here for met winter...I know it was drier to the north however.. Yep. I'm in the red on this map, which is the past 90 days, not met winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Yep. I'm in the red on this map, which is the past 90 days, not met winter though. Yeah once past the blizzard here on 1/23...only 7.27" since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 A rare dry nino. It's been fairly dry here the last 18 months overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 A rare dry nino. It's been fairly dry here the last 18 months overall. The strongest 500 mb ridge from April to March on record did the job deflecting the storm track away from our area. You can see how the historic rains wound up around Texas with the STJ butting up against record block over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 The strongest 500 mb ridge from April to March on record did the job deflecting the storm track away from our area. You can see how the historic rains wound up around Texas with the STJ butting up against record block over our area. 2016_2_3_12_5_5_2_90_-90_0_360.png I hope it changes in time for next winter and gives us a favorable set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 With today's 73°-49° temperature range, New York City's negative monthly temperature anomaly has been erased. New York City now has a +0.1° anomaly for April. The monthly anomaly had been negative from April 5 through April 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 I hope it changes in time for next winter and gives us a favorable set up We'll be fine as long as the blocking shifts back to the Arctic like it did this Jan into Feb. The record blocking shifting to the North Pole set us up for the historic blizzard and follow up storm. NYC is batting 12 near to above normal snowfall seasons out of the last 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 With today's 73°-49° temperature range, New York City's negative monthly temperature anomaly has been erased. New York City now has a +0.1° anomaly for April. The monthly anomaly had been negative from April 5 through April 20. Yeah, that was our longest cold anomaly stretch since March 2015. The only thing left to see is if all the strong blocking this month continues the cooler April max temperatures for NYC since 2013. We'll finish with a positive departure and perhaps the 4th April in a row with a high below 85 degrees. NYC April highs 2016...82 so far 2015...80 2014...77 2013...82 2012...88 2011...83 2010...92 2009...92 2008...84 2007...86 2006...83 2005...87 2004...85 2003...88 2002...96 2001...87 2000...75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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