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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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the April 1976 heat wave was the longest of the year...the 96 on the 18th was the hottest for the year...2002 was just the first wave and the 96 on the 17th was exceeded a few times during the summer months......

some early heat in NYC...

4/16-18/2002...92 96 91

4/17-19/1976...91 96 92

4/16-18/1896...87 88 90

4/25-27/1915...91 72 92

4/25-29/2009...88 92 84 90

4/27-29/1962...91 89 80

5/01-04/2001...87 90 90 92

5/02-03/1913...89 89

5/06-09/2000...89 93 91 91

5/04-06/1949...84 90 92

5/05-07/1930...89 91 91

5/09-10/1979...94 94

5/09-13/1970...90 93 88 85 85

5/09-11/1896...91 92 91

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Through April 15 (incorporating today's high temperature as of 1 pm), April has been averaging 2.9° below normal. Assuming that the MOS through 4/22 is reasonably accurate, April remains on course for a cooler than normal temperature.

 

April201604152016.jpg

 

However, in recent days there has been a small decrease in the probability of a monthly temperature anomaly of 1° or more below normal. If some of the recent guidance is accurate, the closing week of April could still feature enough warmth to eliminate the cool anomaly altogether. Yesterday's 18z GFS was exceptionally warm in the extended range.

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Three consecutive frosts/freezes here; better than December. 13th: 33.1F, 14th: 29.6F, and this morning: 29.9F. Not bad. I'm at 9 sub freezing nights for the month of April.

 

 

4th consecutive frost/freeze here.

 

31.7F this morning. Love this weather with warm days and cold nights. 

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Radiating well here also with 33,34,34 and 37 last four mornings...big differences with the urban stations.

 

The first two week below normal temperature streak in NYC since March 2015.

Places like Alaska got all the warmth while we were cooler the last few weeks

as Anchorage set a new record high temperature streak.

 

 

Anchorage with 11th record high in 24 days. No other similar length time period with as many records. #akwx pic.twitter.com/O54hdXpEk0

 

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Very dry outside today. Dew points in the teens.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=OSO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Explains this:

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-162100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
409 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

...ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD TODAY...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH CREATING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD

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The probability of a warmer than normal April, at least using the MOS has increased quite a bit over yesterday. Assuming the extended range of the GFS is reasonably accurate, I still think it is more likely than not that April will ultimately wind up warmer than normal. As of now, including today's 66° high temperature through 3 pm, the monthly anomaly is -2.4°.

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The probability of a warmer than normal April, at least using the MOS has increased quite a bit over yesterday. Assuming the extended range of the GFS is reasonably accurate, I still think it is more likely than not that April will ultimately wind up warmer than normal. As of now, including today's 66° high temperature through 3 pm, the monthly anomaly is -2.4°.

I won't be surprised if we see temperatures push 85 before the months end...

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Radiating well here also with 33,34,34 and 37 last four mornings...big differences with the urban stations.

 

Yep. Just keep racking them up. 5th consecutive frost/freeze. 31.7F again this morning. Now 10 nights < 32F for April. Pretty impressive. Definitely well above normal for the amount of April freezes. I'd have to check how many I had in December, but I'd imagine it may be getting close.

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Wow, didn't even know March was that low.

 

If we can extend this into May without reversing, then we'll be on track for one of our driest springs around here.

But in recent years, two dry months have been followed by a rebound in the third month. It's been tough

to string three very dry months together recently. 

 

Driest springs in NYC

1st   place   4.95

10th place   7.05

 

First half of spring 2016  2.33

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