bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 NYC through April 13th is still colder than the December 2015 average temperature was. So far this month the average temperature in NYC is 47.0 vs 50.8 for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 NYC through April 13th is still colder than the December 2015 average temperature was. So far this month the average temperature in NYC is 47.0 vs 50.8 for December. That's incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 That's incredible The -EPO/-AO pattern focused the coldest temperatures relative to the means for the whole Northern Hemisphere into Eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 NYC through April 13th is still colder than the December 2015 average temperature was. So far this month the average temperature in NYC is 47.0 vs 50.8 for December. That is some stat. That would be the equivalent of having the first half of October warmer than all of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Long range GFS has widespread 80s and 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 April 1915 had a 10" snowfall on the 2nd and a heat wave at the end of the month with two days over 90 degrees... 1915... 4/2 http://chroniclingam...-04/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-05/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333374/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333375 http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333396/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333401 4/25 http://bklyn.newspap...image/52910802/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52911107 4/28 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/54334216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 While 90's look like a stretch, both the EPS and GEFS finally bring back the WAR pattern for the last week of April with 80 or higher certainly possible. gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_11.png 80 is possible monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 While 90's look like a stretch, both the EPS and GEFS finally bring back the WAR pattern for the last week of April with 80 or higher certainly possible. gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_11.png 80s look possible late next week. The ridge at the end of the month looks even stronger. Early May has heat wave potential, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 This is one of the driest long range looks I've seen in a long time. There can always be one of those sneaky cutoffs to muck that scenario up this time of year, but this certainly could set the stage for a historic drought heading into the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 GFS says we push 80 April 25-27 time frame, looks close, jersey seems certain for upper 70s possible 80 If the high temperature here stalls around 60 (again) while points west are at 80 I'm going to scream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 This is one of the driest long range looks I've seen in a long time. There can always be one of those sneaky cutoffs to muck that scenario up this time of year, but this certainly could set the stage for a historic drought heading into the summer. Anything is possible. We've seen countless dry spells end in deluges but I agree we will be impacted again by a major drought sometime in the future. It's not a matter of if but when and how the states respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 80 is possible monday 80s look possible late next week. The ridge at the end of the month looks even stronger. Early May has heat wave potential, IMO. It really won't take much to hit 80 this time of year as the warm days have exceeded guidance recently. The funny thing is that it has been easier for NYC to reach 70 in December since 2010 than hit 90 in April. NYC made it to 70 in December in 2015 and 2013. The last 90 degree day during April was back in 2010. April high temperature in NYC since 2000: 2016...79 so far 2015...80 2014...77 2013...82 2012...88 2011...83 2010...92 2009...92 2008...84 2007...86 2006...83 2005...87 2004...85 2003...88 2002...96 2001...87 2000...75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Long range GFS has widespread 80s and 90sWill be interesting to see if the warmth gets established and our monthly average temp ends up around normal. I guess snow to start and 90 to end is one way to get to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Will be interesting to see if the warmth gets established and our monthly average temp ends up around normal. I guess snow to start and 90 to end is one way to get to average. We only need to average +3 or a high around 65 so definitely doable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Anything is possible. We've seen countless dry spells end in deluges but I agree we will be impacted again by a major drought sometime in the future. It's not a matter of if but when and how the states respond. Historic is a bit of a stretch, but we've definitely been flirting with a longer term trend towards drier conditions. We're at our lowest 3 year precipitation moving average since 2003. If the long term forecast becomes reality, you'll start seeing areas throughout the northeast approaching D1 conditions by the end of the month given the dry start to the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Historic is a bit of a stretch, but we've definitely been flirting with a longer term trend towards drier conditions. We're at our lowest 3 year precipitation moving average since 2003. If the long term forecast becomes reality, you'll start seeing areas throughout the northeast approaching D1 conditions by the end of the month given the dry start to the year. Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001. As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001. As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it. Most of long island was in major/severe drought last year for a decent stretch if my memory is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 GFSx only has 70 for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Most of long island was in major/severe drought last year for a decent stretch if my memory is correct.I think drought on Long Island has less of an impact on people than in other areas. All of the drinking water comes from deep aquifers that aren't like resivoirs that get impacted by short term drough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Most of long island was in major/severe drought last year for a decent stretch if my memory is correct. Just low end D1 for the most part last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Drought has been the one weather extreme that we have been able to avoid since the last top ten driest year in 2001. As soon as it looks like a dry pattern may begin to take hold, we get a big precip event or series of events to end it. Yup. No way of knowing for sure due to the limited amount of recorded data, but this latest moist regime is probably one of the wettest stretch of years in the last 2-300 years. I think we're starting to turn the corner on that given the drier weather we've been having the last few years, though. That being said, it's still difficult to imagine any kind of scenario in which drought would have a significant impact on the way of life around here. At the very worst we still manage 30" of precip/year. This area of the globe just doesn't really favor sustained drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Yup. No way of knowing for sure due to the limited amount of recorded data, but this latest moist regime is probably one of the wettest stretch of years in the last 2-300 years. I think we're starting to turn the corner on that given the drier weather we've been having the last few years, though. That being said, it's still difficult to imagine any kind of scenario in which drought would have a significant impact on the way of life around here. At the very worst we still manage 30" of precip/year. This area of the globe just doesn't really favor sustained drought. Yeah, we went form the driest period in hundreds of years during the 60's to the wettest from the 1970's to now. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Yeah, we went form the driest period in hundreds of years during the 60's to the wettest from the 1970's to now. https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/ Wow. Cool article. I know the 60s were bad precip wise, but how much of an impact did it have on life around here? I've never really heard the family elders mention anything drastic, if at all about that drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 It really won't take much to hit 80 this time of year as the warm days have exceeded guidance recently. The funny thing is that it has been easier for NYC to reach 70 in December since 2010 than hit 90 in April. NYC made it to 70 in December in 2015 and 2013. The last 90 degree day during April was back in 2010. April high temperature in NYC since 2000: 2016...79 so far 2015...80 2014...77 2013...82 2012...88 2011...83 2010...92 2009...92 2008...84 2007...86 2006...83 2005...87 2004...85 2003...88 2002...96 2001...87 2000...75 That 2002 early heat wave was very impressive...from the 16th thru the 19th had high Temps of 91,91,96 and 91 here...sure put up the ac early that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 April monthly max/min and average max/min... decade.....max...min...ave max ave min.1870's........na...20..........na........na........1880's........84...21.........77.6.......27.4..... 1890's........90...24.........79.1.......28.2.....1900's........84...24.........77.7.......30.4.....1910's........92...22.........79.6.......29.3.....1920's........90...12.........82.6.......28.3.....1930's........89...28.........79.0.......31.9.....1940's........91...24.........79.7.......31.5.....1950's........85...23.........81.1.......31.7.....1960's........91...28.........82.9.......31.8.....1970's........96...25.........84.2.......29.1.....1980's........88...21.........79.9.......31.8.....1990's........91...23.........81.3.......32.4.....2000's........96...29.........86.3.......32.0.....2010's........92...31.........83.3.......34.9.....2010-15 2016..........79...26.........79.0........26.0....as of 4/14 1870-2009.............................80.8.......30.4.....1980-2009.............................82.5.......32.1..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 Best shot at hitting 80 looks to be Saturday the 23rd time frame... The 25-27th hat had wide spread 80s vanished at 12 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 That 2002 early heat wave was very impressive...from the 16th thru the 19th had high Temps of 91,91,96 and 91 here...sure put up the ac early that year. Yeah, that followed our famous year without a winter. The Long Beach boardwalk was full of bike riders and joggers all winter with crowds more common for mild spring days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 If the high temperature here stalls around 60 (again) while points west are at 80 I'm going to scream. You need to move to south Florida or maybe just central Jersey. That is typical spring weather out on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Wow. Cool article. I know the 60s were bad precip wise, but how much of an impact did it have on life around here? I've never really heard the family elders mention anything drastic, if at all about that drought. I Can't remember the exact year Central Park recorded a little ove 31 inches of rain but I recall backyard well digging occuring in my part of Brooklyn at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 I Can't remember the exact year Central Park recorded a little ove 31 inches of rain but I recall backyard well digging occuring in my part of Brooklyn at that time. Interesting. Drinking the water underneath my backyard would be a death sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.