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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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Looks like a colder than average first 7-10 days of the month based on LR guidance

Even with tomorrow's warmth, it looks reasonable that the first week of April will wind up around 4° +/- 1° below normal. There may be multiple days on which the temperature falls to 32° or below in April for the first time since 2007 and possibly the coldest April temperature since the 1990s.

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Looks like Sunday at 1am or 6z may get a bit snowy around here. Nothing crazy but at least a few snow showers.

GFS 0z depiction

0de253bddbaaa896e149d982fe1c905d.jpgcf80227f9f76d30c135e15f863d7c3b8.jpg

Nam 32k 0z run

013508cac8be351954f8f936860659ec.jpg

nam 12k oz run

1358f15f75ded2189b9da9fcb8684a56.jpg24fb9509a9eb5c71d52291cc4f99b618.jpg

Nam 4K 0z run

4d71ba4a41c2958c4f7f0a3f600b2090.jpg843f864ce4ded0642ca436de4b4d783b.jpg

GFS and NAM 0z both trended south with this mini bomb so let's see how far we can get this and how much snow we can squeeze out of this.

Sent from MAM

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Looks like Sunday at 1am or 6z may get a bit snowy around here. Nothing crazy but at least a few snow showers.

GFS 0z depiction

0de253bddbaaa896e149d982fe1c905d.jpgcf80227f9f76d30c135e15f863d7c3b8.jpg

Nam 32k 0z run

013508cac8be351954f8f936860659ec.jpg

nam 12k oz run

1358f15f75ded2189b9da9fcb8684a56.jpg24fb9509a9eb5c71d52291cc4f99b618.jpg

Nam 4K 0z run

4d71ba4a41c2958c4f7f0a3f600b2090.jpg843f864ce4ded0642ca436de4b4d783b.jpg

GFS and NAM 0z both trended south with this mini bomb so let's see how far we can get this and how much snow we can squeeze out of this.

Sent from MAM

In the MAM we trust!
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It's like a late May day out there.    With not as much rain today, looks like another over performer.   I liked Craig Allen's FB post this AM-3 months of weather in the next 5 days

My forecast today is calling for rain to start in the afternoon with thunderstorms :raining:

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My forecast today is calling for rain to start in the afternoon with thunderstorms :raining:

look at radar, it's a quick shot of rain and maybe a t-shower.  (and it's possible we split the uprights)  Big area on the DELMARVA looks to mostly miss south.  HRRR bone dry:

hrrr_apcpn_neus_15.png

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how cold will it get in April 2016?...last year was 32 on the 1st...32 times the temperature hit 25 or lower since 1869...the last time it was that cold in April was 1995...

lowest temp...date...

12.....4/01/1923

20.....4/04/1874

21.....4/07/1982

21.....4/06/1982

21.....4/05/1881

22.....4/19/1875

22.....4/02/1919

22.....4/01/1919

22.....4/12/1874

23.....4/07/1881

23.....4/06/1881

23.....4/05/1995

23.....4/04/1954

23.....4/01/1874

24.....4/20/1897

24.....4/11/1909

24.....4/07/1943

24.....4/04/1896

24.....4/03/1954

24.....4/02/1911

25.....4/18/1875

25.....4/13/1874

25.....4/12/1976

25.....4/09/1977

25.....4/08/1982

25.....4/05/1943

25.....4/04/1881

25.....4/03/1896

25.....4/03/1894

25.....4/01/1883

 

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The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for: Cape May County in Southern New Jersey. Western Atlantic County in Southern New Jersey. Southeastern Cumberland County in Southern New Jersey.


  • Until 11:00 AM EDT.
  • At 10:12 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from near Fortesque to 7 miles north of Cape Henlopen State Park to near Henlopen Acres, and moving northeast at 60 mph.
  • Locations impacted include: Vineland, Millville, Ocean City, Cape May, Cumberland. Pleasantville, Somers Point, Northfield, Margate City, Egg Harbor City, North Wildwood, Laurel Lake, Wildwood Crest, Weymouth. Woodbine, Sea Isle City, Estell Manor, Avalon, West Cape May and Longport.
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So crazy it's cold raw and wet on the island and has been since I got home last evening. Not my favorite time of year on the south shore.

When is it not cold on the south shore? I do a job in july in patchogue and i swear its 20* colder than everywhere else
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uncle W, on 01 Apr 2016 - 10:18 AM, said:

how cold will it get in April 2016?...last year was 32 on the 1st...32 times the temperature hit 25 or lower since 1869...the last time it was that cold in April was 1995...

lowest temp...date...

Yeah only made it down to 30 here last April...lowest it got here this March was 24...may beat that this coming week.

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General disco thread?

 

With the clouds clearing out late morning and the abundant warm moist air, I guess there was potential for some severe weather.  Pretty good line came through here in Whitehouse Station.  A few vivid bolts of lightning and some heavy rain, maybe 0.50".

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