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April 2016 obs/ discussion


2010 extreme

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Close to Mega front criteria with a 25 degree drop in 12 hours likely

For those unfamiliar a mega front produces

15 degree drop in 1 hour or

20 degree drop in 2 hours or

25 degree drop in 12 hours or

35 degree drop in 24 hours

I can rember the numeric of my greatest 24 hour drop being 52 degrees but not the date and the greates 2 hour drop was november 1995 of 24 degrees which kicked off the great 95-96

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Anyone with access know if there is precip associated with this?

 

 

a little over the mtns and southern va at that pt. moves through here during the day but temps are in the 40s.

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a little over the mtns and southern va at that pt. moves through here during the day but temps are in the 40s.

 

The weekend setup in general is fairly potent for an outside shot at some snow. I'm neutral on the idea either way but it's an intriguing look.  

 

Once the ul trough digs in Fri there looks to be one or several pieces of energy turning the corner. Something can pop under or over us with a sharp trough like that. It doesn't favor progressive with the pretty nasty ridge poking into GL. Probably cold rain of course but some wet snow shouldn't surprise anyone. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_6.png

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The weekend setup in general is fairly potent for an outside shot at some snow. I'm neutral on the idea either way but it's an intriguing look.  

 

Once the ul trough digs in Fri there looks to be one or several pieces of energy turning the corner. Something can pop under or over us with a sharp trough like that. It doesn't favor progressive with the pretty nasty ridge poking into GL. Probably cold rain of course but some wet snow shouldn't surprise anyone. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_6.png

yeah it's not a bad setup. needs some work at the sfc plus the trough just scoots a bit too far east but have had some bigger runs too. this one goes off like the third wave in the longwave trough tho so who knows how it would get that right form here. :P   need something at night either way unless you're looking for 38 and mangled.

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yeah it's not a bad setup. needs some work at the sfc plus the trough just scoots a bit too far east but have had some bigger runs too. this one goes off like the third wave in the longwave trough tho so who knows how it would get that right form here. :P   need something at night either way unless you're looking for 38 and mangled.

 

You would think any snow this late during the day would have to have some sort of closed ul feature taking a nice (perfect) track. Without some dynamic ul support I just don't see much chance. WAA precip won't get the job done unless it's some sort of freak event. Backside of a bowling ball could probably get the surface temps down enough. 

 

Night seems like a requirement even for snow tv. It's a shame the lw pattern we are seeing set up is coming in April.

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You would think any snow this late during the day would have to have some sort of closed ul feature taking a nice (perfect) track. Without some dynamic ul support I just don't see much chance. WAA precip won't get the job done unless it's some sort of freak event. Backside of a bowling ball could probably get the surface temps down enough. 

 

Night seems like a requirement even for snow tv. It's a shame the lw pattern we are seeing set up is coming in April.

yeah probably.. or early day. averages are nearing the mid-60s for highs at least around here.

 

sucks all around.. hurting spring severe season now. :P   seems we like getting these northeast vortexes to lock in by spring these days.

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