powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 lol...nam is way south. Congrats weenie in tolland. CT/RI/SE MA special on that one...the best lift is actually a bit south of Tolland, lol. The 12z 4km NAM was way south too so not surprising the 18z went that way. Ginxy jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z RGEM came north.... Gonna have to really wait until probably tomorrow's runs to figure out the exact track of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yea, worried abut a Ginx special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z RGEM came north.... Gonna have to really wait until probably tomorrow's runs to figure out the exact track of this. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z RGEM came north.... Gonna have to really wait until probably tomorrow's runs to figure out the exact track of this. Yeah that 12z run was really far south... best lift in Long Island sound, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yea, worried abut a Ginx special.. No one worries about a Dendrite special anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 This is like a poor mans 12/9/2005. That can still be fun for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 This is like a poor mans 12/9/2005. That can still be fun for a short time. Hopefully...you need to really get that ULL deepened very quickly as it passes almost over us or just under us. What we don't want is for it to get too strung to the southeast...have the height lines get too stretched SE...then it'll just give a period of steady snow...but probably not all that heavy...,maybe only briefly. It's kind of a tightrope to walk. You want to really see those 5H heights come back N right as it goes under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 That's still a good look up to pike on the 18z NAM looking at H7 and H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 That's still a good look up to pike on the 18z NAM looking at H7 and H5. It actually has pretty good lift into NH too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Can someone pull 4" from this? I just am hoping for a few minutes of wind and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 That's still a good look up to pike on the 18z NAM looking at H7 and H5. Do you buy the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It actually has pretty good lift into NH too... Ray, that was a Ginx special, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Can someone pull 4" from this? I just am hoping for a few minutes of wind and heavy snow. Someone could def pull that much if things go right...but there's obviously a chance it ends up less robust too. But the deeper look in the upper levels is encouraging. Hopefully it maintains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Do you buy the NAM? I buy the potent look. But the question is where does it track. 10-15 miles will mean a ton..and there is no way to narrow that down. I do believe in the narrow area getting hit good...I also believe I would not rip and read QPF in this scenario. Basically right now...everyone from like a KASH latitude to KHVN latitude is game. E-W in that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I buy the potent look. But the question is where does it track. 10-15 miles will mean a ton..and there is no way to narrow that down. I do believe in the narrow area getting hit good...I also believe I would not rip and read QPF in this scenario. Basically right now...everyone from like a KASH latitude to KHVN latitude is game. E-W in that corridor. That's all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 That's all we can ask for. We jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I buy the potent look. But the question is where does it track. 10-15 miles will mean a ton..and there is no way to narrow that down. I do believe in the narrow area getting hit good...I also believe I would not rip and read QPF in this scenario. Basically right now...everyone from like a KASH latitude to KHVN latitude is game. E-W in that corridor. It's smaller scale, but reminds me a little of Feb 15 last year...just a very potent ULL look with big instability. That ended up as a big disaster forecast for the QPF queens. Obviously this isn't as large of scale as already mentioned, but you could easily see a nice little swath of solid advisory snows...and if everything went right, you couldn't rule out a 6 or 7 spot in 4 hours somewhere. But so much depends on how well this deepens as it crosses over the south coast or nearby. It could also just end up as a meh 1-3" in spots if the core of that vortmax/ULL doesn't deepen sharply and ends up stretchs too much to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It's smaller scale, but reminds me a little of Feb 15 last year...just a very potent ULL look with big instability. That ended up as a big disaster forecast for the QPF queens. Obviously this isn't as large of scale as already mentioned, but you could easily see a nice little swath of solid advisory snows...and if everything went right, you couldn't rule out a 6 or 7 spot in 4 hours somewhere. But so much depends on how well this deepens as it crosses over the south coast or nearby. It could also just end up as a meh 1-3" in spots if the core of that vortmax/ULL doesn't deepen sharply and ends up stretchs too much to the southeast. Yeah you don't want it to stretch SE and not close off. Would be nice if this began to close off over Forky. It just looks like a potent bugger right now. Even if you look at the theta-e at H7...it has that classic tuck in look of warmer and more moist air right into ORH practically...with a dryslot/lower theta-e south of SNE. Just has the look of something nice. Have to hope it maintains a very strong look and can try to close off just south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z NAM suggests given southern movement in the low's track south of the islands, Cape Cod sees 3-5" of snow. Also wind core is now up to 70 knots just east of Cape Cod, CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Scott I really think 60+ mph winds are possible over me. H5 closes off south of MVY on the latest NAM. I wouldn't be surprised to see a High wind warning issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 NAM shows even more instability at hour 42 with LIs of -2C to -3C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 GFS ticking south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z GFS actually closes off that H7 low for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z GFS actually closes off that H7 low for a while. It's helacious over nrn MA and SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I buy the potent look. But the question is where does it track. 10-15 miles will mean a ton..and there is no way to narrow that down. I do believe in the narrow area getting hit good...I also believe I would not rip and read QPF in this scenario. Basically right now...everyone from like a KASH latitude to KHVN latitude is game. E-W in that corridor. Models are never going to resolve something to that type of scale... total nowcast. I picture like a one to two county wide swath getting the best stuff, within a larger area of 1-3". Almost like a summer MCS with a light rain shield around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Models are never going to resolve something to that type of scale... total nowcast. I picture like a one to two county wide swath getting the best stuff, within a larger area of 1-3". Almost like a summer MCS with a light rain shield around it. It will be neat to watch. I love these little critters that pack a punch. GFS is throwing -LI values into SNE at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It's helacious over nrn MA and SNH. It has a really nice stinger to it as it exits. Might be more impressive than the meso models surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It will be neat to watch. I love these little critters that pack a punch. GFS is throwing -LI values into SNE at that time. 18z GFS is really impressive for your area/BOS region. The little H7 closure slows it just enough to crank for another hour or two longer than other areas. That'll make a difference if you are getting 0.15" in the bucket every hour. I know, don't rip and read QPF but that's also impressive with 0.4-0.5" 24 hour totals between ORH and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It has a really nice stinger to it as it exits. Might be more impressive than the meso models surprisingly. I thought the same. Impressive look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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