40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 This season would be a bit less of an abomination if I could make a late run at 40".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 12z NAM compared to 6z NAM increased the backside wind field up to 70knots at both 850mb and 925mb respectively. Cape Cod could gust to 60mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Maybe more like 36h, lol...RGEM is the model I'd probably watch the closest though once we get inside that timeframe. It's essentially a better version of the NAM for stuff like this. Agree...I meant more relative to globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 You can see in that image how its rapidly developing a commahead/CCB. Pretty impressive. The 4km NAM/WRF does it too but its much further south... so much so it doesn't have much of anything fall even BOS-ORH northward. This one crushes Tolland to even the RI coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 A little tick north on the NAM there. Another couple of those would be appreciated up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Just saw the NAM. Another NGW. I think the hi res models perhaps may be ones to pay attention too as far as the output from them. However, it's really the track that will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The 4km NAM/WRF does it too but its much further south... so much so it doesn't have much of anything fall even BOS-ORH northward. This one crushes Tolland to even the RI coast. untitled.png untitled1.png I assume it must track the vortmax much further south than other guidance. It's all about where that core vortmax tracks...for SNE as a whole, something over about LI would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 The NAM is straight up high level octane flying into this thing at the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Just saw the NAM. Another NGW. I think the hi res models perhaps may be ones to pay attention too as far as the output from them. However, it's really the track that will be important. I agree. Think this has legs, and will be larger than Monday for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 RGEM looks really good at 48h...a tick south of the NAM, but very similar in the potent vortmax and rapid development of MLs. Verbatim it would hit CT/RI the hardest. We'll see how these look in another 2 or 3 runs...by that point we'll be inside of 36 hours which is when they are more reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 RGEM looks really good at 48h...a tick south of the NAM, but very similar in the potent vortmax and rapid development of MLs. Verbatim it would hit CT/RI the hardest. We'll see how these look in another 2 or 3 runs...by that point we'll be inside of 36 hours which is when they are more reliable. This is a really tough one to communicate. There's a chance this produces a pretty epic 2-3 hour burst of wind, snow, thunder here in CT but a pretty good chance it does not. The track of that vort max is critical - if it ticks farther north like the 12z NAM did it's game over here but on for the Mass Pike. It's a really narrow band that gets into the goods. It's a really tough one to figure out how to communicate well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 This is a really tough one to communicate. There's a chance this produces a pretty epic 2-3 hour burst of wind, snow, thunder here in CT but a pretty good chance it does not. The track of that vort max is critical - if it ticks farther north like the 12z NAM did it's game over here but on for the Mass Pike. It's a really narrow band that gets into the goods. It's a really tough one to figure out how to communicate well. Yeah its like a 25-30 mile wide band that really goes nuts...with maybe a lesser moderate burst stretching another 10 miles either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2016 Author Share Posted April 1, 2016 This is a really tough one to communicate. There's a chance this produces a pretty epic 2-3 hour burst of wind, snow, thunder here in CT but a pretty good chance it does not. The track of that vort max is critical - if it ticks farther north like the 12z NAM did it's game over here but on for the Mass Pike. It's a really narrow band that gets into the goods. It's a really tough one to figure out how to communicate well. Would you use the 12k NAM over the 4K? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yeah its like a 25-30 mile wide band that really goes nuts...with maybe a lesser moderate burst stretching another 10 miles either side. Yup - I did a briefing this morning in the newsroom and said... there's like a 1 in 3 chance people wake up Sunday morning and go "holy f*#%" but it could just as easily shift north up toward the Mass Pike region. Hard to figure out how to staff it as it's such a high impact low probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 well i will need a straight jacket if i have to watch areas 5-50 miles south of me get the wicked snow and wind....north i wont care quite as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Would you use the 12k NAM over the 4K? I'm really not in the mood for your shenanigans today. But I use both to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Is the NAM showing a Phil like Tropopause Fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I also want to see what this lil clipper does over Michigan... looks interesting there on the 4K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 RGEM is a sweet look. Nice kink in the 700mb, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 GFS ticks a little south. Looks like we're getting a consensus across N MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 RGEM is a sweet look. Nice kink in the 700mb, rgem_T700_neus_17.png Snowgrowth...good temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Snowgrowth...good temps. Where was this look in Jan/Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 well i will need a straight jacket if i have to watch areas 5-50 miles south of me get the wicked snow and wind....north i wont care quite as much I am pretty much planning on that here. Why fight this year's pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 My largest concern in a Ginxy special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Where was this look in Jan/Feb? Quebec city and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 My largest concern in a Ginxy special. I actually thought the same thing. Certainly on the table. That trend will show up today if it's going that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 GFS ticks a little south. Looks like we're getting a consensus across N MA. Ukie seems to like that N MA zone as well...pike region up to the border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yup - I did a briefing this morning in the newsroom and said... there's like a 1 in 3 chance people wake up Sunday morning and go "holy f*#%" but it could just as easily shift north up toward the Mass Pike region. Hard to figure out how to staff it as it's such a high impact low probability event. Helps that it is a sunday am-not much traffic concerns, although I'm sure a few churches will close (not sure why exactly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Helps that it is a sunday am-not much traffic concerns, although I'm sure a few churches will close (not sure why exactly) I think this is the first time I've seen "snowstorm" on google weather since moving to Boston this past August. Definitely church hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 lol...nam is way south. Congrats weenie in tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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