Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NAM lights up the ORH hills...and the second system looks on track to follow about the same path lighting up the I-90 corridor and just north. nam_3hr_snow_acc_neng_29.png Looking at soundings and VV's, for once that snow map is way underdone in EMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 lol you just can't help yourself. 50-70+ mph?Ummm. Yes. It's a trop fold. Stop looking at qpf outputs and snow maps. Thought that was proven with the last snowstorm last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looking at soundings and VV's, for once that snow map is way underdone in EMA They are really sensitive to sfc temp, so they probably punish E MA for being like 33F and snow when in reality those types of rates are just going to overwhelm the sfc if it actually panned out as modeled. When you have 3 hr qpf near half an inch, it's not gonna matter if the sfc is 33F or 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 They are really sensitive to sfc temp, so they probably punish E MA for being like 33F and snow when in reality those types of rates are just going to overwhelm the sfc if it actually panned out as modeled. Yes, the soundings show just an ideal snow growth zone too. As depicted thats a quick punishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yes, the soundings show just an ideal snow growth zone too. As depicted thats a quick punishing. The H5 temps drop to like -33C...lol. That is just sick lapse rates. Hard not to salivate at the NAM even though it's probably not going to verify. It's trying to nuke the atmosphere over BID/MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Ummm. Yes. It's a trop fold. Stop looking at qpf outputs and snow maps. Thought that was proven with the last snowstorm last weekWhat do QPF and snow maps have to do with wind?I asked about 50-70+ and you say Umm yes stop looking at snow maps. And last week's event the QPF was pretty good if not too-high. It verified a little drier than progged if you looked at the melted obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looking at soundings and VV's, for once that snow map is way underdone in EMA Yup, just a piece of guidance and a conservative place to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yup, just a piece of guidance and a conservative place to start. We'll start with 6" in ORH and adjust upward if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 What do QPF and snow maps have to do with wind? I asked about 50-70+ and you say Umm yes stop looking at snow maps. Im not sure what you mean. On that NAM solution it would gust over 50 everywhere and 70+ over the coast.Ryan has gusts over 50mph on his telecast this eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 What do QPF and snow maps have to do with wind? I asked about 50-70+ and you say Umm yes stop looking at snow maps. And last week's event the QPF was pretty good if not too-high. It verified a little drier than progged if you looked at the melted obs. And qpf was awful . It was discussed adnauseum on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yup, just a piece of guidance and a conservative place to start. Bufkit has an insane 2 hour period of near 4 inch snows each hour at BED 160403/1300Z 67 34014KT 32.8F SNOW 18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202 18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 86| 0| 14 160403/1400Z 68 33022KT 31.5F SNOW 22:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167 20:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 We'll start with 6" in ORH and adjust upward if need be. I'll admit part of me posted that because of the difference between TOL and ORH, haha. And sure enough it was followed up with a "don't look at snow maps" in response to the wind discussion....though I'm sure if that 5" was further south there'd be no objections . We wait now, as we know someone will be posting snow maps from Twitter if any look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 18z GFS really impressive too...it's a bit further north with the best dynamics, but it has the same very potent look....it has definitely trended a bit more toward the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I think today will end up windier than Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Im not sure what you mean. On that NAM solution it would gust over 50 everywhere and 70+ over the coast. Ryan has gusts over 50mph on his telecast this eve Look at the model data on the NAM... its not that impressive for wind. It would be with snow falling and 30mph but every sounding I'm seeing is showing the coast with gusts to 50mph (30kts sustained) while the interior is 15-25kts. I'm not trying to be a dick, but you won't find a NAM prog showing those winds you are talking about verbatim. Bufkit has an insane 2 hour period of near 4 inch snows each hour at BED 160403/1300Z 67 34014KT 32.8F SNOW 18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.202 18:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 86| 0| 14 160403/1400Z 68 33022KT 31.5F SNOW 22:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167 20:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 Yeah that's insane that is hourly...I saw that and thought it was a 3-hour snapshot. And to DIT's comments, the winds there are 14kts and 22kts. That's plenty of breeze to add effect if its snowing whiteout, but its not some sort of ridiculous wind event verbatim on that 18z run that has been being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Look at the model data on the NAM... its not that impressive for wind. It would be with snow falling and 30mph but every sounding I'm seeing is showing the coast with gusts to 50mph (30kts sustained) while the interior is 15-25kts. I'm not trying to be a dick, but you won't find a NAM prog showing those winds you are talking about verbatim. I haven't seen any prog with the winds he said, the best winds are south of the vort max by a hundred miles, if he wants winds its congrats you on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I think today will end up windier than Sunday Probably right. Two days ago when this was progged further north and SNE was in the hot seat for high winds it looked better. But with the whole thing coming south, the wind moves south too. The wind on that NAM prog down in the mid-Atlantic is pretty impressive. The highest winds are going to be SW of the vort max on the backside. The NAM has some fairly impressive sustained 30-40mph moving through the Baltimore area and mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Probably right. Two days ago when this was progged further north and SNE was in the hot seat for high winds it looked better. But with the whole thing coming south, the wind moves south too. The wind on that NAM prog down in the mid-Atlantic is pretty impressive. The highest winds are going to be SW just behind the vort max. The NAM has some fairly impressive sustained 30-40mph moving through the Baltimore area and mid-Atlantic. nam_mslp_uv10m_neng_22.png the 66 and 69 frames do slam EMA and the Cape but the interior even on all other model data is meh. Gusts to 50 might occur but again not seeing the 60-70 stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I haven't seen any prog with the winds he said, the best winds are south of the vort max by a hundred miles, if he wants winds its congrats you on snow. Yeah that's what I was seeing too. Cool. The winds on the Mass coast look decent as I'm sure BOS will have some fun obs but that's sort of run of the mill there for a developing ocean storm. Here are the later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 18z NAM shows 60knot winds at 925 and 850mb within northwesterly winds on backside of arctic jet low pressure center that produces a blizzard for three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 the 66 and 69 frames do slam EMA and the Cape but the interior even on all other model data is meh. Gusts to 50 might occur but again not seeing the 60-70 stuff lol we are leapfrogging posts. Agreed on EMA and Cape...CHH gets wrecked. But the interior threat seems greatly diminished from some of the progs a couple days ago. Like I said though, 30mph in 2"/hr snows is plenty for effect... you don't need trees down for the wind to have an impact if that blitz of snow develops. Its not like its going to be calm, but its also probably not uprooting trees throughout CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 You and your model progs lol. Try looking bigger picture outside what a model shows verbatim. There's a reason why a conservative met like Ryan has gusts over 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I agree, the coastline looks to get blitzed big time with the NAM and now the GFS coming into line with one another. I looked at the best site in my opinion for accurate winds on twisterdata.com and it shows northwest winds at 60 knots just about 2,000-5,000 feet agl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 JUst imagine if future runs would show this H5 low closing off in time to prolong the blizzard conditions? Just imagine, I have been so busy writing my novel and now I have a few days to watch the weather now, because my book is in the editing process. Anyways, this has potential, but as WIll and Scott said, it probably won't be as intense as NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 You and your model progs lol. Try looking bigger picture outside what a model shows verbatim. There's a reason why a conservative met like Ryan has gusts over 50mph "Could surpass 50mph" does not equal "50-70+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 18z NAM shows 0 to -1C LIs over Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Im not sure what you mean. On that NAM solution it gusts over 50 everywhere and 70+ over the coast. You and your model progs lol. Try looking bigger picture outside what a model shows verbatim. There's a reason why a conservative met like Ryan has gusts over 50mph lol you are the master of spin. Why does it matter what Ryan has? He might not be basing his forecast off the NAM. You specifically stated the NAM and then when someone actually posts a NAM graphic you say "you and your models." Its a trip in here sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 lol you are the master of spin. Why does it matter what Ryan has? He might not be basing his forecast off the NAM. You specifically stated the NAM and then when someone actually posts a NAM graphic you say "you and your models." Its a trip in here sometimes. Ryans forecast says gust TO 50 and maybe some a little higher and lets not forget thats probably near the coast so Tolland might see 40? http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sunday AM looks much windier in CT than today was . Not even close.Trees are going to come down even in Moosup. Sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Ryans forecast says gust TO 50 and maybe some a little higher and lets not forget thats probably near the coast so Tolland might see 40? http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/ I don't know why I took a bite of the hyperbole. Its going to be a breezy day but the whole death and destruction 50-70+ stuff is just too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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