Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Pretty sharp kink at H7 on a lot of guidance which suggests there could be a pretty good burst of steady snow near and just north of that...those unstable soundings would promote some intense pockets. Obviously this type of setup we'll know more about once we get it inside of 36 hours. can you tell me what exactly this kink is? (I feel like a novice in this discussion) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 can you tell me what exactly this kink is? (I feel like a novice in this discussion) Here's the 12z GGEM....I circled the kink in the H7 heights in red in the lower left...it's basically a mid-level center trying to form, but it's still an open wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah check out the GFS too. Has another mini comma head actually. Good graphic Will. Hopefully models hold onto look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Here's the 12z GGEM....I circled the kink in the H7 heights in red in the lower left...it's basically a mid-level center trying to form, but it's still an open wave thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I replied to you in the model thread since this is for Sunday morning. sorry, my bad, i will look there, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 2 questions. 1. Is it a WINDEX type setup? It seems different 2. Similar to Feb 2014 (I think) where we got brief white out conditions (for an hour or so). Not much accum (1-2") but crazy winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This has instability like a WINDEX event, but this is a little different. That's usually with a cold front or trough. This is low pressure forming along a boundary associated with very strong dynamics moving in aloft. You are actually generating some inflow aloft unlike a WINDEX event. I think any winds would occur at tail end of squall or more likely, after it departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This may be a good situation for hi res models. NAM looks nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Holy Cow. NGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This has instability like a WINDEX event, but this is a little different. That's usually with a cold front or trough. This is low pressure forming along a boundary associated with very strong dynamics moving in aloft. You are actually generating some inflow aloft unlike a WINDEX event. I think any winds would occur at tail end of squall or more likely, after it departs. Stinger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Holy Cow. NGW. Lol...was just gonna post...NAM was run from Ginxy's basement surrounded by all his BUFKIT images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NAM is very impressive. Basically a mini nuke comma head verbatim for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah that's a heck of a look, Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 Absolute Roardown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Holy Cow. NGW. thunderstruck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wow. Instability too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wow. Instability too. eta_66_500.gif eta_66_rh.gif eta_66_vv.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah that's a heck of a look, Will. Too bad it probably won't verify just like that....but if it did, we're talking like a 3-5 hour blizzard over most of SNE. Probably extremely high impact flash freeze type stuff...something most people wouldn't expect on April 3rd. Luckily, it would be about the most favorable time possible to avoid commute issues...early on a Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sick Steve. NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wow. Instability too. eta_66_500.gif eta_66_rh.gif eta_66_vv.gif Yeah that's hilarious...that's thunder pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's S++ with winds gusting to 50- 70+ in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Too bad it probably won't verify just like that....but if it did, we're talking like a 3-5 hour blizzard over most of SNE. Probably extremely high impact flash freeze type stuff...something most people wouldn't expect on April 3rd. Luckily, it would be about the most favorable time possible to avoid commute issues...early on a Sunday morning. It's going to depend on the strength of that s/w...but if that maintains...I certainly would respect the hi res in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Lol...was just gonna post...NAM was run from Ginxy's basement surrounded by all his BUFKIT images. Has a holy grail Trop fold look too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It's going to depend on the strength of that s/w...but if that maintains...I certainly would respect the hi res in this situation. Yeah if we maintain the shortwave strength and general track for another few cycles, then I agree the hi-res will probably do the best in this setup since we're definitely going to be dealing with non-hydrostatic processes in that setup...but obviously we're still out in that 60-66 hour timeframe where they aren't so useful yet. But the NAM shows you the type of potential this system has if things track "perfectly"...we've said it has potential for some pretty interesting stuff. That would probably be the higher end...like getting a quick 6" of snow in 4 hours or something. Obviously you have to put the probability at such an outcome pretty low in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Any chance that this can track more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Any chance that this can track more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah if we maintain the shortwave strength and general track for another few cycles, then I agree the hi-res will probably do the best in this setup since we're definitely going to be dealing with non-hydrostatic processes in that setup...but obviously we're still out in that 60-66 hour timeframe where they aren't so useful yet. But the NAM shows you the type of potential this system has if things track "perfectly"...we've said it has potential for some pretty interesting stuff. That would probably be the higher end...like getting a quick 6" of snow in 4 hours or something. Obviously you have to put the probability at such an outcome pretty low in this timeframe. Yeah of course. The track certainly will dictate the outcome. But I'm intrigued for sure. Even a tempered NAM solution would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Too bad it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NAM lights up the ORH hills...and the second system looks on track to follow about the same path lighting up the I-90 corridor and just north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's S++ with winds gusting to 50- 70+ in places lol you just can't help yourself. 50-70+ mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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