40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NB is subjective anyway. For some, if it doesn't involve 6"+ of snow then it's all the same. For others, looking at the extremely unstable soundings and maybe some good snow squalls is pretty fun. Regardless, there's some potential for a heavy burst of snow if things work out. So worth keeping an eye on at least until it we see where that shortwave will track. Fair enough. Thanks for explaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 It's an actual tropopause fold. When those happen..wild, wild things happen. Regardless of Will seeming to downplay the wind aspect. This is going to be a memorable day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This is going to be a memorable day Early April Fools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 Early April Fools?Sure will be if folks are thinking 30 mph winds and flurries in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Given how the season has gone, I'm guessing Sunday's cold air arrives just as the moisture has departed (as depicted in PF's #21, above) - maybe see some flakes while driving to church. Then the next system becomes a colder, drier version of 3/21, perhaps a full whiff for the foothills rather than the few tenths received from that earlier event. Might see some single-digit lows, though - only had two of those since moving out of Ft. Kent 30 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It's an actual tropopause fold. When those happen..wild, wild things happen. Regardless of Will seeming to downplay the wind aspect. This is going to be a memorable day Not all trop folds are created equal. It may get wild for a time but I'm not sure about memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 Not all trop folds are created equal. It may get wild for a time but I'm not sure about memorable. Well it's not going to blow to 100MPH on CC with 1-2 feet of snow inland no...but heavy snow for a few hours, thunder, winds gusting to and past 60mph..that's something most wx nuts look forward to and would remember vividly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well it's not going to blow to 100MPH on CC with 1-2 feet of snow inland no...but heavy snow for a few hours, thunder, winds gusting to and past 60mph..that's something most wx nuts look forward to and would remember vividly. That sounds really wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 That sounds really wild. Glad you are on board with us Tyler Jankoski @TylerJankoski 1h 1 hour ago Wild start to April includes wind, rain, thunder and snow » http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Wild-Start-to-April-Includes-Wind-Rain-Thunder-and-Snow-374120911.html … 2 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet 2 Like 2 More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Some of the modeling has placed the highest windfield to our SW with the southward shift in the track, I think 40-55 is where I'd go with the wind in CT until I saw some more data on 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Ukie and GGEM are quite deep with the Sunday s/w as well...likely a nice burst of accumulating snowfall over a good chunk of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Ukie and GGEM are quite deep with the Sunday s/w as well...likely a nice burst of accumulating snowfall over a good chunk of SNE. Now you are stealing our clippers too! Nice southern trend on that one for you guys here in the late innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Now you are stealing our clippers too! Nice southern trend on that one for you guys here in the late innings. Everything has found a way to fail up here this year. I don't see why it would be different now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro is even further south than 00z...that would put the best snows in CT/RI Sunday morning. It is the furthest south of any guidance...but it seems that a decent chunk of SNE is likely to see some accumulating snow early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 What is the general timeframe of the snow.. Pre-dawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 What is the general timeframe of the snow.. Pre-dawn? Yeah mostly...might linger into mid morning, but it looks like the best potential is between 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Euro is even further south than 00z...that would put the best snows in CT/RI Sunday morning. It is the furthest south of any guidance...but it seems that a decent chunk of SNE is likely to see some accumulating snow early Sunday. Sounds like what the GGEM had. Best lift in RI/CT/SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 How much on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 How much on Euro? Probably a couple inches. When you get really unstable soundings like this though you have to watch for pockets of higher amounts that models may have trouble picking out...because it almost may be convective for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 How much on Euro? Maybe inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 guys regarding Monday night, Tuesday event, when can we "lock" any type of amounts?? Friday or Saturday computer runs?? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 Maybe inch or so.I'll take Will's response for $1,000. Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I'll take Will's response for $1,000. Alex Well that's what the euro had. But it's one of those things where maybe someone gets C-1" and another area gets 3". It may not be widespread, but a narrow area in a E-W band could do quite well. I wouldn't cry over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 guys regarding Monday night, Tuesday event, when can we "lock" any type of amounts?? Friday or Saturday computer runs?? Thanks I replied to you in the model thread since this is for Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I'd rather see some big winds than a car topper that melts in 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2016 Author Share Posted March 31, 2016 We are getting both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 We are getting both It gonna be really really wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This may be another ignore QPF and look at mid level features. I know QPF is south on euro, it I like the look overall for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 This may be another ignore QPF and look at mid level features. I know QPF is south on euro, it I like the look overall for SNE. Pretty sharp kink at H7 on a lot of guidance which suggests there could be a pretty good burst of steady snow near and just north of that...those unstable soundings would promote some intense pockets. Obviously this type of setup we'll know more about once we get it inside of 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 We are getting both Give me a crack of thunder, some more 50 MPH winds (The other night was awesome) and a snow squall. Does look like an interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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