CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 18z GFS is really impressive for your area/BOS region. The little H7 closure slows it just enough to crank for another hour or two longer than other areas. That'll make a difference if you are getting 0.15" in the bucket every hour. I know, don't rip and read QPF but that's also impressive with 0.4-0.5" 24 hour totals between ORH and BOS. If you go to weather.cod and look at 925-850-700...you can see the inflow. We take the low level inflow, squeeze it out in strong convergence..and the cold air aloft provides instability to further accelerate lift. Pretty cool whereever that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 What about graupel? This type of convective set-up might also lead to just pounding dippin' dots, among dendrites and thunder, lol. I could see it just pouring graupel and the public thinking its sleeting or hailing. That's what we get a lot this time of year with convective orographic showers... I'd imagine the set-up is pretty good for that as well in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 What about graupel? This type of convective set-up might also lead to just pounding dippin' dots, among dendrites and thunder, lol. I could see it just pouring graupel and the public thinking its sleeting or hailing. That's what we get a lot this time of year with convective orographic showers... I'd imagine the set-up is pretty good for that as well in this one. I went from rain-hail-whiteout in Dec 2005. I'm pretty sure it was hail. It was cloudy looking and not like dip n' dots graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I had 0.5" of graupel in that Feb 2013 tstm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Rolling thunder in the rolling Litchfield Hills of CT (Washington Depot). Currently sitting under a dark red patch on the radar, skies pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 We sting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 As of right now I like where I am for this but that can definitely change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Nice summer evening out as we talk ofFebruary type stuff moving in here in a day or so. Marvelous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 00z NAM...pretty snowy for a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 RGEM def north from 18z...pretty good walloping for a chunk of SNE and even into S NH/S VT...this is just one frame from the early cruddy graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Here's the robust RGEM solution for snow precip...it actually has warning criteria snow for areas near the pike in central and W MA. Here's the key...remember when we said that you want to see those 5H height lines ripping back to the N and NW? Well here is how it looks at 33h....very nicely wound up even up at 5H...so it really gets the conveyor cranking as that traverses across the south coast of SNE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 And here's 850mb....look at the pike region on these maps...starting in C/W MA on the first image, and then E MA on the 2nd image...see the wind flags coming out of the east at 30 knots....that is the key for getting the big solution the RGEM has. Is it right? Hard to say...if it is, then we're gonna have a lot of surprised folks Sunday morning...but it's still a bit too early to start expecting >4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 GFS is quite robust as well...maybe a tick north of RGEM and not quite as crazy with the ML inflow, but these placements don't mean a ton yet when we're talking 10-20 miles. The trend at 00z is definitely more robust...you can see it both in the ML plots and the H5 plot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 GFS is probably close to warning level for the BOS-ORH corridor assuming it all falls as snow(Borderline on the run but I don't trust the GFS for temps). Nice trends so far on the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 RGEM blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Ukie looks awesome as well. There's also another tenth or so after this panel for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 RGEM blows. Huh? It looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Huh? It looked great.Maybe he was referring to its wind potential haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Huh? It looked great. The one frame I saw looked paltry out this way....but I don't have any graphics. UK looks best imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Maybe he was referring to its wind potential haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 AOOUT (As one of us thought) WINDS...INTENSE PRESSURE COUPLET YIELDING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT H925 ACROSS NJ / DELMARVA EXTENDING ON UP ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ASTHE STORM EXITS LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. WITH INCREDIBLY STEEPLAPSE RATES...UNDOUBTEDLY A MAGNITUDE OF SUCH WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TOTHE SURFACE. 35 TO 55 MPH WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND N TO SWITH 50 TO 70 MPH WINDS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS E/SE MASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 AFDGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 AOOUT (As one of us thought) WINDS...INTENSE PRESSURE COUPLET YIELDING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT H925 ACROSS NJ / DELMARVA EXTENDING ON UP ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AS THE STORM EXITS LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. WITH INCREDIBLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...UNDOUBTEDLY A MAGNITUDE OF SUCH WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 35 TO 55 MPH WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND N TO S WITH 50 TO 70 MPH WINDS ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS E/SE MASS. Yeah coastal areas should do well with winds...never been any doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Pretty good agreement with the 6z model runs so far. Again areas from say Near Hampshire border down to southern Connecticut southern Rhode Island and Cape Cod are in the zone. Today we will fine tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 GFSGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 Yeah coastal areas should do well with winds...never been any doubt about that. Thank you.Getting accused of hype only to actually see it likely occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Thank you.Getting accused of hype only to actually see it likely occurring This definitely looks intense. Best winds as usual though look SE of this location Those of us in interior valleys tend to be skeptical because we rarely see memorable winds, strong yes but for me memorable is significant damage and/or power outages. Nevertheless ,it will be a wild morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Power issues if the snow is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2016 Share Posted April 2, 2016 Nah snow won't be wet in most spots. I do see brief KGW potential on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2016 Author Share Posted April 2, 2016 Power issues if the snow is wet Not from the snow..but wide wide spread FTW (FROM the Wind and For the win) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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