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Spring/Summer Mountain/Foothills thread


Met1985

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I'm at 25.3 with wind. Even saw a flake or two around 6 this morning. This weekend looks especially brutal for April with night time temps in the mid teens and a high for Saturday in the mid 30's ! What?

 

Note to SnoJoe.. may have to revise that 45" snow total upwards.   :snowing:

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The last runs have:

 

GFS has KTNB going to 12 degrees Saturday Night.

 

Based on the 10 to 14 degree delta at 5200'+ on the last 2 cold air pushes, that could drop the higher elevations down to below 5 degrees.

 

j6RLmUP.png

 

The GFS grid has the lowest temp of 2 degrees in the NC High Country

 

yqkaCzT.png

 

 

 

ECWMF has KTNB going to 20 degrees Saturday night.

 

JIUyJDy.png

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The last runs have:

GFS has KTNB going to 12 degrees Saturday Night.

Based on the 10 to 14 degree delta at 5200'+ on the last 2 cold air pushes, that could drop the higher elevations down to below 5 degrees.

j6RLmUP.png

The GFS grid has the lowest temp of 2 degrees in the NC High Country

yqkaCzT.png

ECWMF has KTNB going to 20 degrees Saturday night.

JIUyJDy.png

I believe it.
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Morning AFD from KGSP

2" to 4" in favored areas

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ANOMALOUSLY

STRONG UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT

THE START OF THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY...BUT WITH

CONTINUED NW FLOW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A

SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/CHANNELED VORT MAXES DIVE DOWN THE NORTHWEST

FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE MOST PART...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK TO

CONTAINING THESE TO THE WESTERN SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM SIDE

OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE NEAR

TERM...HAVING PASSED JUST EAST AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM

PERIOD...WITH DEEP-LAYER CAA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

SECONDARY WAVE DIVES DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE IS TRENDING

DRIER ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THEY RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTH

OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT BY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WITH LARGE

NW FLOW SNOW RATIOS...EVEN THE LIGHT QPF MIGHT LEAD TO SOME DECENT

ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR APRIL THAT IS...WITH STORM

TOTALS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. NOT ENOUGH FOR

AN ADVISORY BUT MIGHT BE WORTHY OF AN SPS LATER TODAY OR THIS TIME

TOMORROW.

THE BIGGER STORY HERE IS OF COURSE THE RIDICULOUSLY COLD

TEMPERATURES THAT ADVECT IN FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE

WIDESPREAD FREEZE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY

MORNING...WITH FROST POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. AS

THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RIDGE IN ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL

STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE UPSTATE...REMAINING IN THE

30S OR AT BEST 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS...15-20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL

NORMALS...THOUGH NOWHERE NEAR RECORD LOW MAXES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL

SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT GRIDS ADVERTISE FREEZING

CONDITIONS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF

THE UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS

POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE IN THE HWO. CURRENT FORECAST IS ONLY A COUPLE OF

DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS AT AVL/CLT /23 AND 28 RESPECTIVELY/ BUT A

GOOD BIT HIGHER THAN THE GSP RECORD /24/. THIS IS AN IDEAL

RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND

LOWER 20S...WE COULD VERY WELL SEE EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN

CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IF THE WINDS DIE OFF MORE QUICKLY THAN

FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

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