blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Another bump north on the 12z NAM. Kuchera ratios yield about 7.5" for Toronto. Looks like it'd be mostly sleet here in London. Getting interesting. EC may need to adjust the snowfall warning axis north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Getting interesting. EC may need to adjust the snowfall warning axis north. Even with the 2-4" they currently have in their forecast I would have issued a SWS. OB is right. A scary segment of the population is oblivious to the fact that it can snow in April. This is going to catch people by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I guess I should say horrific after a mostly snowless and warm winter and an above average March.I can think of a lot of not nice words to describe the winter we just had (forgettable probably tops the list), but snowless is not one of them. There were plenty of snowfalls, they didn't last long due to the frequent thaws. Sans big dog, this is the kind of winter some wanted when we were buried the last few years. Get a snowstorm, watch it melt, wash rinse repeat. Without any official data, DTW only 6" below normal, and a very north to south gradient winter, I'd say everyone in the metro area north of Detroit had an average-ish snow season, with above to even well above average from the far northern suburbs into flint. Cold and snowcover may not be the popular choice for weather junkies who like it active, but its a huge part of what makes or breaks a MI winter whether you love it or hate it. Guarantee people in Flint could have seen 30" less snow than they did this year but if it was cold and constantly white they would call it a much much more severe winter than this one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Even with the 2-4" they currently have in their forecast I would have issued a SWS. OB is right. A scary segment of the population is oblivious to the fact that it can snow in April. This is going to catch people by surprise. The city won't be ready for it and a lot of people have taken snow tires off already. Should be fun. It looks like the best omega coincides with an area near -10c so there is good reason to believe that the mean ratio is above 10:1. The fact that this occurs at night also helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Upper 20s in the arrowhead today and low 70s in SW MN. Classic April setup. Should push 60 here but need these dang clouds to get out of the way. I have yard work to do today since yesterday was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Short range modelling(HRRR/RAP) seem to be supporting QPF numbers near 0.6" for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Already a 16 degree swing today, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Short range modelling(HRRR/RAP) seem to be supporting QPF numbers near 0.6" for Toronto. Seems the last 10 years or so then short-term trends would be mostly south with these type of clippers. This little feller looks like it'll break that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 13z HRRR has a good handle on temps as of 15z, and has the area in the low-mid 70's this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Seems the last 10 years or so then short-term trends would be mostly south with these type of clippers. This little feller looks like it'll break that trend. I'm going with a 4-6" range for the city. Thinking QPF will be around 0.5"... with mean ratio ~12/13:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Have already risen 31 degrees to 57, after a low of 26. Cedar Rapids has already gone up 37 degrees to 62, after bottoming out at 25. About 6 more hours to go till high temps are reached. WAA continues atop the mixing layer through sunset, so late day highs should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Thinking north 59 ends up with a couple inches from this today/tonight. Hopefully enough to get us to 70" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 15z HRRR through hour 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Had a lot of clouds before 10am this morning here. Lagging behind at 42° right now. Low 23° this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Iowa is pushing the heat up..last ob was 54F...i;d imagine we'll be pushing 60F in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 15z HRRR through hour 15 hrrr_ref_toronto_16-1.png hrrr_t_precip_toronto_16.png It's been superseded by the short range models but the 12z GFS came in juicier too. I like your call of 4-6". I'll go with it as well although given trends lately it may end up being a bit conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 It's been superseded by the short range models but the 12z GFS came in juicier too. I like your call of 4-6". I'll go with it as well although given trends lately it may end up being a bit conservative. I dug up some April snow data at YYZ. Were in relatively rare territory. 4"+ events since 1970 4/2/05-4/3/05: 6.4" 4/3/96-4/4/96: 5.5" 4/6/94: 4.2" 4/8/79-4/9/79: 6.5" 4/25/76-4/26/76: 6.1" 4/2/75-4/3/75: 9.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I dug up some April snow data at YYZ. Were in relatively rare territory. 4"+ events since 1970 4/2/05-4/3/05: 6.4" 4/3/96-4/4/96: 5.5" 4/6/94: 4.2" 4/8/79-4/9/79: 6.5" 4/25/76-4/26/76: 6.1" 4/2/75-4/3/75: 9.9" Cant speak to most of them except for the 2005 event. That was a phantom snowstorm. That 6.4" of snow never actually accumulated more than 1/2" at any one time. This will actually be a powdery snow that'll not only actually accumulate, blow and drift a bit. So assuming the 1996 event actually legitimately accumulated, we're going to witness something that hasn't happened in 20 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Highest totals from Event 1 in WNY were 4-7" across the southern 3 counties, another max over Niagara county of 3-4". Only got 1.3" here. Did get some thunder snow though, which was cool. Looks like another decent event coming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Up to 49° now. Looks like once you get from Saukville on north you're out of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I'll go with 6" for tonight's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Cant speak to most of them except for the 2005 event. That was a phantom snowstorm. That 6.4" of snow never actually accumulated more than 1/2" at any one time. This will actually be a powdery snow that'll not only actually accumulate, blow and drift a bit. So assuming the 1996 event actually legitimately accumulated, we're going to witness something that hasn't happened in 20 years! Interesting... I don't remember that event. Thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 I'll go with 6" for tonight's event. It'll be interesting to see if there actually ends up being that SW-NE gradient across the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 64 here. 38 degree rise so far. HRRR shows we reach 79-80 depending on which run you look at. Muscatine and Moline could both get into the low 80s. So far it's pretty much been spot on with temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Man, this is a real rocket-ship day. Cedar Rapids hit the 20s early this morning, but after 8am it really took off. We are currently at 74 with a good shot at a 50 point swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Interesting... I don't remember that event. Thanks for the insight. If my memory serves me correctly, the 1996 event was on Easter Sunday. My family was driving back to Toronto from Kitchener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 It'll be interesting to see if there actually ends up being that SW-NE gradient across the city. If there is, I would assume that areas further southwest will get slightly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 HRRR continues to advertise a 6-8" swath from Grimsby through the GTA(including N/E burbs). Amounts drop off once you hit Pickering/Ajax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Man, this is a real rocket-ship day. Cedar Rapids hit the 20s early this morning, but after 8am it really took off. We are currently at 74 with a good shot at a 50 point swing. 68F at 12;53...some clouds have stopped some of the progression..but i think 70F is in the bag...we started at 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 17z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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