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April 2016 General Discussion


IWXwx

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If we wouldn't have had that intense period of very heavy snow last week I would have been pretty salty about barely missing out on the squall action today.  

 

MLI peak gust was 58mph today.  

 

HRRRX shows us reaching 75 tomorrow, with Hawkeye reaching 77.  That will be an amazing turnaround compared to today.  Also about a 45-50 degree rise over the morning low temps.

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HRRR is even more ahead of the HRRRX for temps.  HRRRX has temps about 4 degrees lower than the HRRR through 19z, and still gets us to the mid 70s.  HRRR might make a run at 80 if trends continue lol.  Since we're already down to 28, and still dropping we would have a shot at a 50 degree rise.

 

EDIT:  RAP has us pushing 80 by late afternoon.  That would be pretty amazing.  Also looks like some more 45mph+ gusts by afternoon.

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Can see why the RAP has temps so warm.  Mixes well above 700mb.  Guessing the HRRR is similar.  12km NAM retains a warm layer up around 850 that hasn't fully mixed out, and results in temps about 7-10 degrees cooler compared to the RAP/HRRR.  I'm guessing we'll see full-on mixing with full sunshine, very dry low-levels, and high momentum west-southwest wind fields in the lower 3km.  This screams over-achieving temps.  Don't know if we will make a solid run at 80, but think mid 70s are quite doable.

 

RAP

03_RAP_018_41.5,-90.63_severe_ml.png

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Probably overdone a bit, but HRRR is getting it down near 20° by 8z. 25° currently.

 

sfct.us_mw.png

 

50s tomorrow, I'll take that.

 

sfct.us_mw.png

 

You may have a good shot to overachieve even up there by the lake with such strong westerlies.  60+ may not be out of the question.

 

Down to 27 here.  Dead calm out there.  Hard to believe that just 12hrs ago we were getting consistent gusts over 50mph.  Winds already turning southerly just to the west.

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You may have a good shot to overachieve even up there by the lake with such strong westerlies.  60+ may not be out of the question.

 

Down to 27 here.  Dead calm out there.  Hard to believe that just 12hrs ago we were getting consistent gusts over 50mph.  Winds already turning southerly just to the west.

 

I'm going to be a little farther north in/near Milwaukee tomorrow, but here it should hit 60°.

 

Huge contrast over WI.

 

sfct.us_mw.png

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New 06z HRRR has DVN and MLI both at 79 at 21z.  Currently they're at 28/29 respectively.

 

That's just an amazing swing. Even a person who is not a weather hobbyist should be amazed at this weekends' shenanigans. 

 

I'll be happy with my 30+° rise today. Gonna be freakin' windy again though. We were lucky yesterday in that very few people lost power, although two trucks got blown over out on I 69. After all of the snow squalls, I ended up with 0.2" of accumulation overnight.

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I'm going to be a little farther north in/near Milwaukee tomorrow, but here it should hit 60°.

Huge contrast over WI.

sfct.us_mw.png

Wow @ that spread.

Should remain in the mid 20's for a high today after a low of 2. Finished with a tad under 10" yesterday. 3 day total of 15.7" and another 5-7 today tonight.

Love this fast clipper pattern!

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The weather for the next week here looks horrific for early April.

Well, it's Michigan. We had a nice stretch of mild weather now it's time for a stretch of colder weather. I don't know why people are so stunned by this weather. You live in Michigan. If you thought back in March 12th winter was over! Well, you haven't learned.

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Well, it's Michigan. We had a nice stretch of mild weather now it's time for a stretch of colder weather. I don't know why people are so stunned by this weather. You live in Michigan. If you thought back in March 12th winter was over! Well, you haven't learned.

 

I think people are more so just sick of the string of non-above average and/or snowy Aprils we've had lately. 

 

 

I guess I should say horrific after a mostly snowless and warm winter and an above average March.

 

 

^That too.

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6z NAM almost up to 6" of snow for Toronto for tonight. If that pans out it'd be the biggest April snowfall in decades.

Also...if that amount falls + an inch or two from the generally cold pattern ahead, there's a chance the snowiest month in the "winter" of 2015-16 ends up being April. That'd be nuts.

On top of all this, the euro has an April 2012 style appalachian bomb at D5.

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I guess I should say horrific after a mostly snowless and warm winter and an above average March.

You'll be ok. Everything will be just fine and dandy. In a week from now it will be over and we will likely go back to around normal to above normal temps.

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6z NAM almost up to 6" of snow for Toronto for tonight. If that pans out it'd be the biggest April snowfall in decades.

 

Also...if that amount falls + an inch or two from the generally cold pattern ahead, there's a chance the snowiest month in the "winter" of 2015-16 ends up being April. That'd be nuts.

 

 

On top of all this, the euro has an April 2012 style appalachian bomb at D5.

Exciting times for sure. I'm already hearing people both say, as well as post on Facebook, that snow in April is "crazy". When you're like us, and know weather history, it's hard to listen to!

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