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April 2016 General Discussion


IWXwx

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I woke up thinking this was a April fools joke but definitely no joke and just to add salt to the wound another 4-8" of snow on the way. 

 

12938361_10205866668885434_3132841255086

You'd better get use to late Springs.  The 2 Winter's I lived around there, snow was on the ground until early and mid April both years. And being sandwiched between Huron and Mich, N Lower is very slow to warm up in the Spring.... as you already know I'm sure! :D

BTW...Nice new toy you got the other day!

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You'd better get use to late Springs.  The 2 Winter's I lived around there, snow was on the ground until early and mid April both years. And being sandwiched between Huron and Mich, N Lower is very slow to warm up in the Spring.... as you already know I'm sure! :D

BTW...Nice new toy you got the other day!

Yea I am "used" to it for the most part since living up this way for the past 3 years but it doesn't make it any easier that's for sure especially when you have new summer toys :) ! Mid-Range is looking better temp wise.

 

Still have about 5" OTG probably be close to 10-12" by Thursday, maybe even some LES this weekend.

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The lake effect setup off of southern Lake Michigan on Friday into Saturday looks better than what happened yesterday (colder 850 mb temps, higher inversion heights, etc.), and I could definitely envision some accumulations if things hold.  Might be able to get a respectable plume going if things work out.  A little early for details but looks like it may tend to favor northwest Indiana more than northeast Illinois at this point.

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I woke up thinking this was a April fools joke but definitely no joke and just to add salt to the wound another 4-8" of snow on the way. 

 

12938361_10205866668885434_3132841255086

 

-5°!!!!

 

19° here this morning. A low that is common in late January. Had ice on the pond. Still flipping cold out even with the sun.

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The lake effect setup off of southern Lake Michigan on Friday into Saturday looks better than what happened yesterday (colder 850 mb temps, higher inversion heights, etc.), and I could definitely envision some accumulations if things hold. Might be able to get a respectable plume going if things work out. A little early for details but looks like it may tend to favor northwest Indiana more than northeast Illinois at this point.

Agreed, it looks fairly impressive for this time of year, mid minus teens at 850 down most of the lake. Although yesterday wasn't a phenomenal setup, it wasn't too bad thermodynamically- I think dry air advecting down the lake kept flake size small. Also I recall reading on NWS Buffalo AFDs that for late season events the strong sun disrupts attempts at an intense single band. I wonder if had yesterday's setup had happened at night, it may have produced more. Of course it's just tougher to accumulate during the daytime this time of year in general.

I think that in addition to being better thermodynamically, Friday into Saturday could be helped by part of it occurring at night and early Saturday when a good single band could get going. We'll see if the very dry air mass is a negating factor at all. But overall, think some accumulations are definitely possible with this one.

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Agreed, it looks fairly impressive for this time of year, mid minus teens at 850 down most of the lake. Although yesterday wasn't a phenomenal setup, it wasn't too bad thermodynamically- I think dry air advecting down the lake kept flake size small. Also I recall reading on NWS Buffalo AFDs that for late season events the strong sun disrupts attempts at an intense single band. I wonder if had yesterday's setup had happened at night, it may have produced more. Of course it's just tougher to accumulate during the daytime this time of year in general.

I think that in addition to being better thermodynamically, Friday into Saturday could be helped by part of it occurring at night and early Saturday when a good single band could get going. We'll see if the very dry air mass is a negating factor at all. But overall, think some accumulations are definitely possible with this one.

 

 

Good points.  The most favorable factors coming together at night should help.  *Could* have lake-850 mb delta Ts around 20C and lake-700 mb delta Ts around 30C, both of which are good benchmarks to get a pretty robust response. 

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Only time I could find in about the past 10 years that LOT or IWX issued a lake effect snow advisory in April was April 6-7, 2007, when IWX issued one.  Quick glance at that setup shows some similarities as far as 850 mb temps. 

Interesting thing is you mention 07, 85 also had a cold snap around this period and some locations broke records that dated back to 1991 which also had a cold snap in early April. All 3 years ended up huge severe weather outbreaks though once the pattern broke, something to look toward later this month.

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I posted about it earlier today.

MQT:

As of 5am ET, the low temperature at NWS Marquette is -6F. This is the second lowest temperature this late in the "cold" season over the past 50 years.

Cool...trying to make up for a crappy winter, at least a little bit. :)

MQT hit -9 on 4/6/2003...the only colder temp on record so late in the season.

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Interesting thing is you mention 07, 85 also had a cold snap around this period and some locations broke records that dated back to 1991 which also had a cold snap in early April. All 3 years ended up huge severe weather outbreaks though once the pattern broke, something to look toward later this month.

I'd take another 2007 summer. 90's all the way into October.

-5F in April...that is just brutal. And I thought it was awful stepping outside at 19F this morning.

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