April 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Yes, the May contest thread is in this same menu but it's pinned at the top of the page for now.

 

Meanwhile, here's the update on the Extreme Forecast situation ...

 

April has produced three results. SEA for DonSutherland.1, ORD for Tenman Johnson and DEN for OHweather after penalty reductions took two slightly closer forecasts below his score (Normal also scores a win there). 

 

For inclusion in this table, most extreme forecast or second most extreme (correct end of spectrum) needs to take high points. Several other locations just missed. BOS needed to finish -1.5 or lower. ATL would require +2.3 or higher. IAH needed to end up --0.7 or lower.

 

So here's the updated table.

 

Month __ Loc'n ____ Anomaly ____ Extreme fcst ___ 2nd most extreme ___ W-L decision

 

Jan ___ NYC ________ +1.9 _______ +4.5 Maxim ____ +2.0 wxallannj _____ W wxallannj L Maxim

Jan ___ BOS ________ +3.5 _______ +4.0 Maxim ____ +2.2 _____________ W (Maxim)

 

Feb ___ NYC ________ +2.4 _______ +3.5 debeaches _ +1.5 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ BOS ________ +3.0 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +2.1 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ ORD ________ +2.7 _______ +2.0 dmillz25 ___ +1.6 ____________ W dmillz25

Feb ___ ATL _________+1.3 _______ +4.2 debeaches _ +1.0 Midlo _______ W Midlo, L debeaches

Feb ___ IAH _________ +2.7 _______ +2.1 RodneyS ___ +0.4 ___________ W RodneyS

Feb ___ DEN ________ +5.3 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.5 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ PHX ________ +6.0 _______ +2.0 Tenman J ___+1.2 ___________ W Tenman Johnson

Feb ___ SEA ________ +4.0 _______ +2.6 wxallannj ___ +2.5 ___________ W wxallannj

 

Mar ___ DCA ________ +6.7 _______ +5.0 Damage ____ +4.6 ___________W for Damage

Mar ___ NYC ________ +6.4 _______ +5.1 Don S ______ +4.6 ___________W for DonS

Mar ___ ATL _________+6.2 _______ +3.5 Blazes ______+3.3 __________ W for Blazes

Mar ___ PHX ________ +4.3 ________+5.0 (Midlo) _____ +4.5 Roger _____ W for Roger, L for Midlo

Mar ___ SEA ________ +2.9 ________+3.0 Midlo _______+2.3 __________ W for Midlo

 

Apr ___ ORD ________ --1.1 ________--2.5 Roger _____ --0.9 Tenman ___ W for Tenman, L for Roger

Apr ___ DEN ________ --0.2 ________ --0.5 OHweather _ 0.0 (two with pen) _ W for OHweather*

Apr ___ SEA ________ +6.4 ________ +4.1 Don S ______ +3.9 __________ W for Don S

 

* also a W for Normal. RodneyS and Quincy had higher gross scores but finished lower on penalty adjusted scores (to both OHweather and Normal) so I am calling that a "no decision" for them.

 

Also please note, I don't dare edit the scoring table for April which proved very balky, but I notice that RodneyS has been edited out of the western contest (just in April, not the annual update). This is the missing line for RodneyS in that table:

 

RodneyS _______________ 96 _ 76 _ 26 _ 198

__________ (-7%) ________ 89 _ 71 _ 24 _________ 184 __________ 635 (= 5)

 

Position in table is equal to Consensus therefore would be placed between Maxim and Consensus.

 

 

 

Updated forecaster records in extreme forecasts

 

Midlo Snow Maker ____4-1

 

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

 

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 2-0

 

RodneyS ___________ 1-0*

dmillz25 ____________ 1-0

Damage in Tolland ____1-0

Blazess556 __________1-0

OHweather __________1-0

 

Normal _____________ 1-0

 

Roger Smith _________1-1

Maxim ______________1-1

 

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus one "no decision" __ RodneyS and Quincy

[Roger Smith]

April scoring is updated, congrats to wxallannj for winning the "main" contest and the all nine, and to Don Sutherland for winning the western contest.

 

The annual races are very competitive, BKViking has moved into the lead in the main contest with Don Sutherland in second. The western and all nine annual contests are particularly close. In the all nine leaderboard, only 18 points separate first and fourth places. Midlo Snow Maker has a two point lead there over Don and six points over wxallannj. Meanwhile the western leader overall is Damage in Tolland who is 15 points ahead of both Don and wxallannj.

 

My only accomplishment is to manage to finish the scoring tables without going insane (my story anyway).

 

RodneyS, if you happen to notice you were edited out of the western contest scoring for April, I have listed your scores in the post above.

[Roger Smith]

Contest results -- winter snowfall 2015-16

 

 

It seems highly unlikely that more snow will fall at any of the locations except possibly DEN, and there we have no significant changes in the outcome possible. Only BKViking has any snow left to receive before going into red figures -- 2.7" to be precise, and if we get that or any part, I will adjust the table and edit this post, but it would only move BKViking up from current  15th place to as high as 12th place. Beyond 2.7" at DEN, all forecasts will fall in lock-step.

 

The results can be seen back at post 24.

 

Congrats to MALLOW as our winner with an overall station error of  27.9" (plus any further snow at DEN). Close second was MAXIM whose total error is 36.1" (plus later DEN). These were the only two forecasters to beat our consensus where the total error was 39.6" ... eight more of us managed to beat 1981-2010 normal values with OHWEATHER in third at 43.8".

 

For individual stations, these were the three best forecasts:

 

 

LOCATION ___ FIRST PLACE ______________ SECOND PLACE ___________ THIRD PLACE

 

 

DCA (22.2") __ wxdude64 at 22.0" (-0.2) _______ hudsonvalley21 at 21.1" (-1.1) __ Midlo Snow Maker at 21.0" (-1.2)

 

NYC (32.1") __ MidloSnowMaker at 34.0" (+1.9) _ Mallow at 30.0" (-2.1) ________ H2OTown_Wx at 28.4" (-3.7)

 

BOS (36.1") __ DonSutherland.1 at 36.5" (+0.4) _ Roger Smith at 35.5" (-0.6) ____ Maxim at 35.0" (-1.1)

 

ORD (31.2") __ Tom at 31.2" (zero error) ______ OHweather at 31.0" (-0.2) _____ Stebo & wxallannj at 32.0" (+0.8)

 

ATL (0.3") ____ Roger Smith at 0.3" (zero) _____ ksammut at 0.1" (-0.2) ________ RodneyS at 0.0" (-0,3)

 

IAH (0.0") ____ Six tied for first with 0.0" ... (OHweather, hudsonvalley21, ksammut, wxallannj, Rjay, RodneyS)

 

DEN (72.8")* __ BKViking at 75.5" (+2.7) _______ Rjay at 70.0" (-2.8) __________ Dmillz25 at 69.1" (-3.7)

 

PHX (0.0") ___ all but four had that correct

 

SEA (0.0") ___ hudsonvalley21 at 2.9" ________ RodneyS at 3.5" _____________ H2OTown_Wx at 3.7"

 

* For DEN, next 2.7" reduces BKViking and increases 2nd and 3rd. Anything beyond 2.7 then increases them equally from zero, 5.5 and 6.4 errors.

 

Lowest total errors for groups:

 

Eastern 3 _____ Mallow (10.8") _____________ Maxim (11.4") _______________ H20Town_Wx at 11.5"

 

Central-s.e. 3 __ wxallannj (1.9") ____________ Roger Smith (3.4") ___________ OHweather (4.4")

 

Western 3*____ BKViking (8.7") ____________ Mallow (9.0") ________________ Dmillz25 (11.4")

 

* For DEN, BKViking can drop 2.7" with more snow at DEN while Mallow and Dmillz25 would add to their totals, after 2.7" all three would rise equally from 6.0, 11.7 and 14.1.

[Mallow]

I know DEN could still get more, but as of now I believe I'm sitting at less than 5" of error at all 9 stations. That's just pure luck more than anything.

[Roger Smith]

You were Mr Consistent that's for sure. Our group consensus was pretty good, we should maybe go commercial -- a 20-way split of Weather Pro-Am USA (not sure if I can lose my amateur status in this sport). About half of us are pros, I think. We need to get Isotherm back in though.

[dmillz25]

I over did it for BOS and NYC but it looked good in late Jan. Oh well better luck next winter