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March 29-31st Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

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Higher surface-based CAPE values are developing in central Oklahoma. SPC says there is a 80% chance of a watch being issued. Here is abbreviated SPC meso discussion. (Read the full discussion at the SPC web page if you want to.)

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.   FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS   INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.    BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON... THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF   WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.   THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A   VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE 
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Solid instability, but veering wind profiles and meager low level wind shear suggest more of a hail threat than anything. We'll see how this evolves through the afternoon. (also veer-back issues noted with the 18z soundings from LMN and OUN) Models have struggled a bit with convective evolution thus far too.

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Solid instability, but veering wind profiles and meager low level wind shear suggest more of a hail threat than anything. We'll see how this evolves through the afternoon. (also veer-back issues noted with the 18z soundings from LMN and OUN) Models have struggled a bit with convective evolution thus far too.

well a lot of the low-level winds will back a bit more toward 00Z.
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Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO.

Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity.

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Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO.

Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity.

 

There's a couple cells SE of Wichita that could produce if they manage to stay somewhat discrete. However the main show is probably going to be across the Arklatex for this one.

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Dry line is quickly mixing east in KS/OK towards the broken line of severe storms from OKC up to ICT and EMP. East of there is stable air from convection that has been ongoing across E. OK/SE. KS/MO.

Will be interesting to see what kind of threat evolves there with such a narrow window of opportunity.

Had some supercell structures in that activity, with large hail.

Nice tor warned sup west of Bartlesville, OK currently. Storm is moving into an area that was recently affected by storms/debris, but is rapidly destabilizing in the wake of that activity and has locally backed winds to the SE.

47d46c385d1d325725f351024618ebaf.jpg

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Had some supercell structures in that activity, with large hail.

Nice tor warned sup west of Bartlesville, OK currently. Storm is moving into an area that was recently affected by storms/debris, but is rapidly destabilizing in the wake of that activity and has locally backed winds to the SE.

47d46c385d1d325725f351024618ebaf.jpg

 

Did you end up setting up at the IA/NE border?

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its a mess but some storms over S AR developing hooks and couplets including this one

 

TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM CDT  
 
* AT 553 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPARKMAN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
ARKADELPHIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  

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another

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
618 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 618 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER RISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

621 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

  SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

  SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

    

* AT 620 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

  WAS LOCATED OVER IDA...OR 15 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST

  AT 40 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

 

LAT...LON 3316 9325 3302 9374 3302 9401 3308 9404

      3347 9348

TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 232DEG 37KT 3304 9391 

 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

HAIL...<.75IN

 

$$

 

VII
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4 separate tornado warned  cells now

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
614 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
EASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 614 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR HAINESVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINEOLA...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

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Didn't make it that far. Decided to sit in Atlantic, IA.

Have had a few towers make an attempt to the W and SW, but that's about it thus far.

Looking like that was a good call, all things considered for this. That cell west of Guthrie Center looks to be riding the warm front/triple point and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a wall cloud right now.
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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0292  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0615 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ARK-LA-MISS  
 
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 60...  

 
VALID 302315Z - 310045Z  

 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 60 CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF WW 60 HAVE BEEN LOCALLY EXTENDED IN CNTRL/SRN  
AR AND A NEW TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS  
REGION.  
 
DISCUSSION...TRANSIENT ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN  
A MESSY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS  
EVOLVING WITHIN VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CHARACTERIZED BY 50-60  
KT 1-KM AGL FLOW PER 21Z LZK RAOB AND LZK VWP DATA. DESPITE THE  
PRESENCE OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...21Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS  
CONVECTION NEAR/N OF THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE  
TO HAVE APPRECIABLE STRETCHING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...FARTHER SE WHERE  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...THE  
RISK FOR AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL PRODUCING A TORNADO SHOULD DEVELOP E  
INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY.  

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