Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Next potential looks to be just before the close of March. Timing issues are pretty significant at this point, with the GFS being much faster than the ECMWF. The GFS would pretty much be a one day potential, which doesn't look all that great for the Mississippi Valley area. On the other hand, the ECMWF is likely a two day event on Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday having the most potential and likely the highest ceiling for any Plains severe day this year to date. I'll leave it at that for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Stratus on the Euro looks potentially crippling. Also the LLJ axis is pretty veered and is outrunning the best instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 Stratus on the Euro looks potentially crippling. Also the LLJ axis is pretty veered and is outrunning the best instability.I'm not even worried about the cloud cover issues at this point, probably the least of my concerns. LLJ is an issue...But 850's don't look too bad across KS/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2016 Author Share Posted March 27, 2016 12z ECMWF came in faster, and is similar to the NAM regarding timing. It's also down to a one day event on Wednesday. The 18z GFS came in slower and is getting closer the the NAM/ECMWF timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 CIPS analogs strongly favors NE OK/S MO for severe weather on Wednesday. 90% probability for 1 severe report in NW AR/SW MO. Some very well-known events in the package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 CIPS analogs strongly favors NE OK/S MO for severe weather on Wednesday. 90% probability for 1 severe report in NW AR/SW MO. Some very well-known events in the package. Note the highest matches aren't all that impressive though. I really don't think Wednesday is going to be that great especially if the timing is faster, there are just too many issues with junk convection/cloud cover and also veering of the low level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Note the highest matches aren't all that impressive though. I really don't think Wednesday is going to be that great especially if the timing is faster, there are just too many issues with junk convection/cloud cover and also veering of the low level winds. Well... Leap Day 2012 and March 12, 2006 were some pretty big events. But I'd rather see more analogs that support severe weather than having one major event mixed among some modest/non-event events. But yeah, debris clouds could really throw a wrench in any analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 The GFS continues to be on the faster side, compared to the slower NAM and ECMWF. The overall threat on it would be much lower and further east. The NAM looks quite good, especially in KS, with the ECMWF to a lesser degree. The NAM however is likely too high with DP's, as it has been for most events so far this season. Sounding from the NAM for 0z out of E. KS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 SGF and TSA don't sound concerned about debris clouds or remnant showers .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2016An upper level low and associate surface low will spread northeastacross the Plains Tuesday night then into southern MinnesotaWednesday evening. As the system tracks east, large scale liftwill start to develop across Oklahoma and Arkansas early Wednesdaymorning and spread north into the Missouri Ozarks andsoutheastern Kansas Wednesday morning into the early afternoonhours. The lift will produce showers and thunderstorms which willlikely be scattered in nature at any given time but with liftcontinue to spread north across the area the decent coverage inrain will occur as scattered storms redevelop through out themorning into the early afternoon hours. There may be thepotential for hail with a few of the stronger storms in themorning/early afternoon, but the overall severe risk with thisactivity will be low.The morning/early afternoon storms will spread off to the east andshould see a break in activity during the mid to late afternoonhours. As the surface low spreads northeast a dry line will spreadeast across Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesdayevening. Clearing is expected to occur ahead of the dry line andbehind the convection expected early in the day. This clearingwill allow instability to increase late in the day withadditional storms expected to develop along the dry line as itspreads east into extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missourilate Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Deep layer shearwill be strong with this system and will allow organized updraftsand the potential for severe weather to occur. Will maintain theelevated severe weather risk for areas generally along and west ofHighway 65. Storms will continue to spread east across the easternOzarks Wednesday night as the cold front over takes the dry line.If line segments can develop a severe risk will occur into theovernight hours and will keep a limit risk for severe storms forareas generally east of Highway 65 Wednesday night. The showersand thunderstorms associated with this system should push off tothe east by Thursday morning as the system tracks off to thenortheast. .DISCUSSION...After a freeze this morning where FYV set a record low...tempshave rebounded nicely will full insolation. Though not as cool aslast night...our area will still be in close enough proximity tothe surface high with mostly clear skies to allow for temps todrop off into the 30s and 40s tonight.South winds increase on Tuesday beneath shortwave ridging aloftdownstream from a large upper low/trough over the western CONUS.The moisture return should be strong enough to avoid Red Flagconditions based on current forecast...however there will be anelevated fire danger across NE OK.The numerical guidance is now in good agreement in ejecting thewestern CONUS upper low/trough across the Plains midweek. Warmadvection storms will likely sweep across portions of the forecastarea early Wednesday in the warm conveyor ahead of the system. Byafternoon...a dryline and cold front will extend S and SWrespectively from a surface low near the mid MO valley. Thereshould be at least a glancing blow of QG forcing from thewave...and upper diffluence between the polar and subtropicaljets. Thus...odds are there will be storms east of thedryline/front Wed afternoon. A combination of moderate instabilityand strong vertical shear in the base of the ejecting upper troughwill yield elevated severe storm potential...with all severe modespossible from rotating storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 At least Wednesday looks like a decent day. GFS has trended somewhat closer to the NAM as far as timing with the dryline/frontal position, and moisture return as well. But the GFS continues to maintain the idea that lingering morning convection will ruin things for later on (like Andy has brought up several times). NAM is still advertising much higher instability (since it does not show as much lingering morning convection), a better wind profile, and higher quality moisture return. All of which have been things it has overdone recently. A blend between the GFS/NAM seems like the best bet at this point to me. Best case scenario to me is for a broken line of severe storms with a variety of storm-modes (supercells/clusters) from E KS into E OK and down into TX in the late afternoon into the evening. As far as a tornado threat goes, we probably are not looking at much of anything, veered low-level winds in the plains almost never bodes well for tornado potential. With that said, if the wind profile the NAM is showing were realized, we could see a somewhat decent tornado threat. IF things do not just change dramatically between now and Wednesday, I would bet on a 5% TOR, 15-30% Hail, and 15% dmgg wind. EDIT: The breadth of the warm-sector could be a concern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 0z NAM was still on the slower side and the most robust in 0z guidance. The ECMWF also stayed on the slower side, but is not as impressive as the NAM. On the other end, the GFS stuck with its faster and much less impressive solution. We're also getting into range of hi-res guidance...The NMM and ARW are in the middle ground between the faster (GFS) and slower (NAM/ECMWF) sets of guidance. 0z NAM in E. KS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 The same caveat being held by FWD down here in the Metroplex, extensive cloud cover in the afternoon. They keep mentioning though that if any breaks develop, explosive development is possible along the dryline with a fairly unstable atmosphere and favorable shear profiles to keep cells breathing for a while. Just a wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Wednesday might be a good day to keep it simple and target just east of the surface low in northeast Kansas. Warm front should make it as far north as Iowa, but nah. Morning rain in western Missouri should add an outflow boundary to work with in eastern Kansas. I favor the OFB intersection with dry line. Eastern Kansas should have more instability than points farther north. Moisture return may be impacted by rain farther south, and lingering clouds could delay instability. Still deep layer shear should be adequate though not robust; and, low level shear is forecast to improve somewhat late day. Finally the dry line will not be impacted by the cold front, a nice change. Watch storm motions, esp if they go into the KC Metro. While this is not a travel set-up in my opinion, it is probably a local chase day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Near Topeka, Kansas tomorrow evening off today's 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Near Topeka, Kansas tomorrow evening off today's 12z NAM... That looks nasty... But it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 That forecast 65 degree dewpoint is over done a bit. Might be looking at something closer to 60. If that even. Going to take a lot of moisture advection to get a DP from 30 to 65 in about 24-30 hours. Suppose the 50+ knot overnight LLJ will do the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 12z ECMWF is still on the slower side of guidance. It's actually the furthest west with the dry line at 0z. And as like the past few days, the GFS continues to be much faster and with a lower overall threat. One issue that is showing up more and more is activity across the Arklatex expanding northward into OK/SE. KS/MO during the day now, which could hinder and threat outside of near the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 0z NAM still looks good from the SLP down into N. TX. Sounding from E. KS at 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 If I were chasing tomorrow I'd probably set up shop near Abilene, or Junction City KS. This area will be on the north side of some of the best buoyancy, and the NAM shows surface winds backing pretty nicely by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 00z 4km WRF from SPC looks quite concerning along the I-35 corridor in OK. I definitely haven't bought in just yet, and I haven't taken this threat very seriously at all over the past week. If this turns out to be a significant day, it might be one of the most surprising "anti-busts" I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 SWODY1 with an enhanced risk ago the Red River on east into the Arklatex, for mostly activity through the day, and especially tomorrow night... With 10% hatched tor in place. Mentioned concerns of veering 850's in OK and moisture/bouncy issues in NE/KS seems to be preventing any higher probs across those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 12z OUN and TOP soundings look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 12z OUN and TOP soundings look decent. Any chance you could post them both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Any chance you could post them both? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/16033012_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 30, 2016 Author Share Posted March 30, 2016 A little over an hour out from DSM, trying to figure out if I want to play the triple point feature in NE/IA or the dry line in KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 A little over an hour out from DSM, trying to figure out if I want to play the triple point feature in NE/IA or the dry line in KS. In recent years similar setups have yielded overperforming triple points and underperforming dryline setups. I'd hang tight as long as you can because if the wind fields can get sorted I think there will be opportunities along the I35 corridor...otherwise, I go triple point if I'm you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 A little over an hour out from DSM, trying to figure out if I want to play the triple point feature in NE/IA or the dry line in KS. If the 12Z HRRR verifies I'd say the triple point would be the obvious play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 On I-35 just south of Eagleville MO and IA/MO state line. Plan on targeting dryline by heading to EMP but we should be getting there early enough to adjust back northward if need be. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Well this is a bit different from what we've been seeing this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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