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Mar. 27-31 Severe Threats


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FWIW... HRRR continues to look really good for Illinois and the west half of Indiana. Rain completely out by 12z. Illinois was barely touched by rain

 

tPLHrJU.png

 

Huh? It looks worse..

 

There is less hint of a secondary sfc low and the front is already to DVN by 12z tomorrow on the 21z HRRR where the 18z NAM has the front between DSM and IOW at 12z.

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Huh? It looks worse..

 

There is less hint of a secondary sfc low and the front is already to DVN by 12z tomorrow on the 21z HRRR where the 18z NAM has the front between DSM and IOW at 12z.

I was only talking about the rain/clouds and the prospective destabilization. You may be right that it's worse based on what you said, I dunno, but it's hard to be worse than the 18z NAM. Perhaps the HRRR would just shift a higher threat further east

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FWIW, the 00z HRRR is a little slower with more of a secondary low than the 23z run.

Yep, looks slower overall compared to the 23z. Also, it has 60 dews into E Illinois at 15z while the skies begin to clear and quickly destabilize. Hopefully we're not being HRRR'd. 

 

OT: Looks like there was a tornado just N of Tulsa, Oklahoma tonight. Heard there's 9 injured so far. 

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that shortwave over Nebraska looks hot....will be some excellent forcing with that.  as long as we can get some surface based instability, we should see supercells popping up near or just west of chicago by late morning. probably a wind and hail threat but we will certainly have to watch surface winds for any backing.  that's not impossible given all the boundaries that could be around after tonight's convection.

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that shortwave over Nebraska looks hot....will be some excellent forcing with that.  as long as we can get some surface based instability, we should see supercells popping up near or just west of chicago by late morning. probably a wind and hail threat but we will certainly have to watch surface winds for any backing.  that's not impossible given all the boundaries that could be around after tonight's convection.

 

There also looks to be a bit less rain right now on radar then the models progged. Could be a good sign for clearing hopefully.

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I clicked other locations around central/eastern IL that has 850 mb dewpoint near 10C at the same time, so I wonder if Cliche just found some weird localized spot.  Would help if the HRRR had 850 mb dewpoint maps but I'm not sure they exist.

I clicked on a STP maximum. I clicked around on other high STP points (>2), and there's an MLCAPE problem all across the state. But Pivotalweather's HRRR now includes MLCAPE parameter... it's deceiving because it's showing 1000+ MLCAPE, but the sounding shows <500 MLCAPE. Am I right that the sounding is probably the correct one?

 

yDk6ptf.png

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I clicked other locations around central/eastern IL that has 850 mb dewpoint near 10C at the same time, so I wonder if Cliche just found some weird localized spot. Would help if the HRRR had 850 mb dewpoint maps but I'm not sure they exist.

5b02706108172df87ab210114a42838f.jpg
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Yep, looks slower overall compared to the 23z. Also, it has 60 dews into E Illinois at 15z while the skies begin to clear and quickly destabilize. Hopefully we're not being HRRR'd. 

 

OT: Looks like there was a tornado just N of Tulsa, Oklahoma tonight. Heard there's 9 injured so far. 

 

G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time)

 

a8b11e6ed7291d08574a9ae06aa6dec5.jpg

 

 

G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice.

 

792d7022612f663769e1ce386de7281d.png

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G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time)

 

a8b11e6ed7291d08574a9ae06aa6dec5.jpg

 

 

G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice.

 

792d7022612f663769e1ce386de7281d.png

Yeah I saved a Radarscope gif of that mean beauty. Glad I did. Sad to hear about injuries though, but not surprised. That had a debris ball for a while.

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G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time)

 

a8b11e6ed7291d08574a9ae06aa6dec5.jpg

 

 

G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice.

 

792d7022612f663769e1ce386de7281d.png

Yea, the tornado looked nice in the pictures on Twitter. Not an HP "wedge" for once: https://twitter.com/NikolaiStophel/status/715339921276346369

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Yeah I saved a Radarscope gif of that mean beauty. Glad I did. Sad to hear about injuries though, but not surprised. That had a debris ball for a while.

Absolutely awesome storm right next to the radar! Unfortunately being that close to the radar generally means the storm is in close proximity to a populated area as was the case here, unfortunately.

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Most recent HRRR run shows a 1000 MLCAPE sounding just east of Springfield (I think it's east of Springfield... not good with Illinois counties). The previous run showed 500 MLCAPE in the same spot. So I'm not sure if HRRR is sniffing out a real problem.

 

il9zRvG.png

il9zRvG.png

 

Bit of a veer-back signature there in the low-mid levels, but it's at 16z so it may not be there after that.

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