ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 FWIW... HRRR continues to look really good for Illinois and the west half of Indiana. Rain completely out by 12z. Illinois was barely touched by rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 FWIW... HRRR continues to look really good for Illinois and the west half of Indiana. Rain completely out by 12z. Illinois was barely touched by rain Huh? It looks worse.. There is less hint of a secondary sfc low and the front is already to DVN by 12z tomorrow on the 21z HRRR where the 18z NAM has the front between DSM and IOW at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Huh? It looks worse.. There is less hint of a secondary sfc low and the front is already to DVN by 12z tomorrow on the 21z HRRR where the 18z NAM has the front between DSM and IOW at 12z. I was only talking about the rain/clouds and the prospective destabilization. You may be right that it's worse based on what you said, I dunno, but it's hard to be worse than the 18z NAM. Perhaps the HRRR would just shift a higher threat further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 FWIW, the 00z HRRR is a little slower with more of a secondary low than the 23z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Nice mild t storms here since 6 p.m. EDT. Nice lightning display which was colorful. Thursday looks more intense. Good luck to all who will chase or spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Comparison between the 23z and 00z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 FWIW, the 00z HRRR is a little slower with more of a secondary low than the 23z run. Yep, looks slower overall compared to the 23z. Also, it has 60 dews into E Illinois at 15z while the skies begin to clear and quickly destabilize. Hopefully we're not being HRRR'd. OT: Looks like there was a tornado just N of Tulsa, Oklahoma tonight. Heard there's 9 injured so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 that shortwave over Nebraska looks hot....will be some excellent forcing with that. as long as we can get some surface based instability, we should see supercells popping up near or just west of chicago by late morning. probably a wind and hail threat but we will certainly have to watch surface winds for any backing. that's not impossible given all the boundaries that could be around after tonight's convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 00z NAM looks slightly faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 that shortwave over Nebraska looks hot....will be some excellent forcing with that. as long as we can get some surface based instability, we should see supercells popping up near or just west of chicago by late morning. probably a wind and hail threat but we will certainly have to watch surface winds for any backing. that's not impossible given all the boundaries that could be around after tonight's convection. There also looks to be a bit less rain right now on radar then the models progged. Could be a good sign for clearing hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 There also looks to be a bit less rain right now on radar then the models progged. Could be a good sign for clearing hopefully. Jinxed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 NAM a little sluggish with recovery, especially with eastward extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sounding for central Illinois at 16z. Gross unidirectional winds and dry boundary layer... but might have a few hours for things to change before storms kick off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 ^Man, awful forecast sounding there with terrible moisture aloft (and thus a big difference between SBCAPE and MLCAPE) but who knows if it's just some unrealistic model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Veered H85 winds advecting dry air in the low levels, that would essentially be game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I clicked other locations around central/eastern IL that has 850 mb dewpoint near 10C at the same time, so I wonder if Cliche just found some weird localized spot. Would help if the HRRR had 850 mb dewpoint maps but I'm not sure they exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 ^Man, awful forecast sounding there with terrible moisture aloft (and thus a big difference between SBCAPE and MLCAPE) but who knows if it's just some unrealistic model output. I was just gonna say, that ML CAPE sucks for moisture retention for storm initiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I clicked other locations around central/eastern IL that has 850 mb dewpoint near 10C at the same time, so I wonder if Cliche just found some weird localized spot. Would help if the HRRR had 850 mb dewpoint maps but I'm not sure they exist. I clicked on a STP maximum. I clicked around on other high STP points (>2), and there's an MLCAPE problem all across the state. But Pivotalweather's HRRR now includes MLCAPE parameter... it's deceiving because it's showing 1000+ MLCAPE, but the sounding shows <500 MLCAPE. Am I right that the sounding is probably the correct one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I clicked other locations around central/eastern IL that has 850 mb dewpoint near 10C at the same time, so I wonder if Cliche just found some weird localized spot. Would help if the HRRR had 850 mb dewpoint maps but I'm not sure they exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Thanks...definitely something to keep an eye on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yep, looks slower overall compared to the 23z. Also, it has 60 dews into E Illinois at 15z while the skies begin to clear and quickly destabilize. Hopefully we're not being HRRR'd. OT: Looks like there was a tornado just N of Tulsa, Oklahoma tonight. Heard there's 9 injured so far. G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time) G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 That's brutally unfortunate haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time) G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice. Yeah I saved a Radarscope gif of that mean beauty. Glad I did. Sad to hear about injuries though, but not surprised. That had a debris ball for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 G2G on that scan was 110mph with a decent TDS. I don't have the velocity because I'm to lazy to download the scans. (as in, I took these in real time) G2G on that one was only 70 mph, but structure was nice. Yea, the tornado looked nice in the pictures on Twitter. Not an HP "wedge" for once: https://twitter.com/NikolaiStophel/status/715339921276346369 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah I saved a Radarscope gif of that mean beauty. Glad I did. Sad to hear about injuries though, but not surprised. That had a debris ball for a while. Absolutely awesome storm right next to the radar! Unfortunately being that close to the radar generally means the storm is in close proximity to a populated area as was the case here, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Most recent HRRR run shows a 1000 MLCAPE sounding just east of Springfield (I think it's east of Springfield... not good with Illinois counties). The previous run showed 500 MLCAPE in the same spot. So I'm not sure if HRRR is sniffing out a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Most recent HRRR run shows a 1000 MLCAPE sounding just east of Springfield (I think it's east of Springfield... not good with Illinois counties). The previous run showed 500 MLCAPE in the same spot. So I'm not sure if HRRR is sniffing out a real problem. Bit of a veer-back signature there in the low-mid levels, but it's at 16z so it may not be there after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Bit of a veer-back signature there in the low-mid levels, but it's at 16z so it may not be there after that. And it's hour 15 of HRRR... as I said earlier, that's probably only slightly more reliable than hour 84 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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