snowlover2 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 SPC did adjust everything slightly NW on the latest outlook for today. And more so to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Yep, they extended the slight up through FWA to TOL and added a 2% tor threat. Now just wait and see what develops. Perhaps I'm biased from what happened the other day in a very weakly unstable environment, but I kinda like the tornado chances today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Definitely have a lot of sun and overachieving temps. Presently already up to 71 around Dayton and looks like a good bet to see 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 HRRR now showing storms further west in eastern IL near where my target triangle was. Gonna really be kicking myself if this thing ends up producing there lol. Arrrg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Mid-70s common across the Ohio River vicinity as of 18z. Models were close, if not a touch conservative with temperatures today. (12z NAM was slightly cooler than observed) I'm setting up near EVV for today's chase. Storms should initiate by 4 p.m. or so based on mesoscale trends and patchy cu field on a SSW to NNE axis from the Missouri bootheel into SE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro sped up for Thursday, there is basically no instability into the sub-forum this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro sped up for Thursday, there is basically no instability into the sub-forum this run.Yea, Thursday looking like a non-event...and Tuesday continues to look like the same out west.Wednesday continues to show potential, especially on the NAM and ECMWF. Still several issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro sped up for Thursday, there is basically no instability into the sub-forum this run. Hopefully it slows down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro sped up for Thursday, there is basically no instability into the sub-forum this run.Can't have model consistency, 3 models slow down and the slow model speeds up 6 to 12 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0223 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2016AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN IL...IND...WRN KY AND TNCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 271923Z - 272130ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TODEVELOP NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAYALSO MATERIALIZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THEREGION WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S F AS FAR N AS SWRN OH ANDCNTRL INDIANA. DEWPOINTS FURTHER RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S F FROM WRNTN INTO NRN MS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KGMLCAPE.AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASESNEAR THE COLD FRONT...THE CAPPING INVERSION JUST BELOW 700 MB WILLBE BREACHED...ALLOWING SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS TOFORM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE COOL WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURESAROUND -20 C. THIS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ANDGENERALLY LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR CELLULARACTIVITY...PERHAPS WITH A FEW SPLITS. LARGE HAIL IS A DISTINCTTHREAT...AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANYTORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF/WEAK GIVEN A DECIDED LACK OFLOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A FEWDAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 03/27/2016ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LAT...LON 35798746 35818900 36318942 37298936 38878856 4066876341418653 41698497 41568428 40798407 38938456 3693858235798746 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Everything seems to be over performing well, even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 This afternoon appears to be going to plan. Large hail still sticks out like a sore thumb as the main threat. Damaging winds with time, especially if storms merge and/or once stronger forcing nudges in early this evening. The tornado threat is non-zero, in two main areas, as I see it. Western Kentucky - Where low level moisture and wind fields are currently the most favorable. Now through late afternoon. Central to east-central Indiana - Hinges upon moisture return, but may have a narrow window around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Thanks for confirming my thoughts Quincy. I have been considering IND and east a mini tornado threat area, good for maybe a spin-up or two. I mentioned to Indystorm (northeast of Indy) earlier that the HRRR was showing a pocket of higher CAPE over his head. Last I checked, dews were running in the mid to upper 50's in Central IN. Good luck down there in the Evansville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looks like things are getting started in W Kentucky and SE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Thanks for confirming my thoughts Quincy. I have been considering IND and east a mini tornado threat area, good for maybe a spin-up or two. I mentioned to Indystorm (northeast of Indy) earlier that the HRRR was showing a pocket of higher CAPE over his head. Last I checked, dews were running in the mid to upper 50's in Central IN. Good luck down there in the Evansville area. Thanks. Cu field popping in all directions, literally, new towers to the north now. (I'm near the I-64/I-69 interchange) The terrain/road network is much better up here than KY, so I'll probably hang tight until something really captures my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Good development South of Fort Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Good development South of Fort Wayne Yes indeed. That string of cells between Fort Wayne and Indy blew up nicely. Nice core on the leading cell north of Marion, IN specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC issue that watch for Northern Indiana soon. That storm near Fort Wayne especially the southern edge is packing some decent hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I rest my case, latest MD SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PROBABLY WILL INCREASE FURTHERACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN INDIANA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN AREAS NORTH/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH WILLCONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVEREWEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 I wonder if IWXwx is chasing that nasty hail core just to his SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Ping pong sized hail reported in Warren Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Two nice looking supercell a, one near Vincennes and the other near Carlisle, IN. They're still out ahead of the cold front, but might get undercut eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Surprise Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Honestly, was not expecting any Michigan counties to be in it as were in the Marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Looking pretty strong with the storm near Fort Wayne, not surprised about the large hail report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Those storms heading toward's Angola look to be trying to get together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Environment has to move north or these storms won't make it to 75. Currently LI of -3 to -4 on the Fort Wayne storm is allowing it to thrive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Storm forming over my head and to my south are great thunder producers, they are trying so hard to get severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Lightning is getting more frequent with those cells moving out of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Decent damage being reported out of Huntington County from the hail earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 27, 2016 Share Posted March 27, 2016 Was happy the dirt roads were dried out... this better yield some boomers or else it's a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.