Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Looking for optimism going forward...so far we've seen some decent EML/steep lapse rate setups in this young season. Have had some moisture quality issues but it is March and more prone to that. At least the next week to 10 days looks like a hostile pattern to say the least in terms of severe prospects. Yeah the next 10 days look torched but the pattern will relax back and the later half of April into May looks prime. The strength of the EML thus far has been impressive and if we can maintain that with better moisture later next month we will be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 It is March and we have had 2 thunderstorms with a 3rd coming today, lower your expectations a touch. Not to mention how terrible the past few Marchs have been for severe weather. There was essentially no severe weather at all from the start of the year until the last 7 days of March. Severe weather is actually on the 10-year average this year, if not slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 There's a nice cluster of severe warned storms moving through Louisville right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Warning for just west of Grand Rapids, winds to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Now a tornado warned storm in Shelby Co, Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I hear BOOMS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, this event busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, this event busted. It is March and we have had 2 thunderstorms with a 3rd coming today, lower your expectations a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, this event busted. For our region, yeah... but you can't say there weren't warning signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 For our region, yeah... but you can't say there weren't warning signs. Did bust though, we are getting storms and we were in a marginal risk in MI. I mean that doesn't sound like a bust at all, if we got nothing and it was a sunny day, that would be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Did bust though, we are getting storms and we were in a marginal risk in MI. I mean that doesn't sound like a bust at all, if we got nothing and it was a sunny day, that would be a bust. I assume he's talking about the threat in Indiana and Illinois relative to his expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I assume he's talking about the threat in Indiana and Illinois relative to his expectations. I mean it was a slight risk and there have been a few reports in N IL/IN. It isn't exactly a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I mean it was a slight risk and there have been a few reports in N IL/IN. It isn't exactly a bust. And as I said, it's not like there weren't warning signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 And as I said, it's not like there weren't warning signs. Yeah like the MCS last night that disrupted the inflow into the region leaving us a bit lower in the instability department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 SMH... some people just aren't happy unless their house gets blown away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah like the MCS last night that disrupted the inflow into the region leaving us a bit lower in the instability department. That, and the dry air aloft actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Hmmmm... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI531 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...BAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...NORTHWESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...EASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 615 PM EDT* AT 531 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWESTOF MIDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...MIDLAND AROUND 540 PM EDT.AUBURN AROUND 545 PM EDT.KAWKAWLIN AND LINWOOD AROUND 555 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Keep on comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Keep on comin' Some solid gusts with this line when it rolled through. Hopefully it holds together for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 2015 continues on I've seen much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Another beauty on the MS/AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Did at least get one crack of thunder with the round coming through now. Better than nothing. Now it's time to grudgingly embrace the April snowfall on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I mean it was a slight risk and there have been a few reports in N IL/IN. It isn't exactly a bust. Yeah. Had two rounds of storms here with hail, one of which produced some 2" hail in Bourbonnais. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Yeah. Had two rounds of storms here with hail, one of which produced some 2" hail in Bourbonnais.Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference.I'm aware of the photos. It's just that there had to be something interesting going on. The storm was underwhelming structurally and one we would be unlikely to ever warn on, more likely an SPS for pennies or nickels. The digital VIL maxed at 32, which is not impressive at all. I'm really surprised there may have been sig severe hail with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 I'm aware of the photos. It's just that there had to be something interesting going on. The storm was underwhelming structurally and one we would be unlikely to ever warn on, more likely an SPS for pennies or nickels. The digital VIL maxed at 32, which is not impressive at all. I'm really surprised there may have been sig severe hail with it. Wasn't sure if you saw the pic since you mentioned being skeptical, my bad. There was a few decent scans of the VIL as the storm was over Bourbonnais. The storm itself didn't look impressive though. I witnessed about .88" hail where I was at. The sun was actually out for a bit while it was hailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 IND confirmed a brief tornado in LAF yesterday. This is a little south of the mall for anyone familiar with the area. ... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1125 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA... LOCATION...LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA DATE...MARCH 31 2016 ESTIMATED TIME...440 PM MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDS ESTIMATED PATH LENGTH...50 YARDS ESTIMATED BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.36N / 86.83W ENDING LAT/LON...40.36N / 86.83W * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ..SUMMARY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS IN HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA ON MARCH 31 2016. CAPTURED ON VIDEO A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3.5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE AT WABASH NATIONAL TRAILERS. A GUARD SHACK WAS DESTROYED...A CAR ROLLED OVER AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER WAS DAMAGED AND NEARLY ROLLED OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 It apparently hit the fan near LAF: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN1131 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0440 PM TORNADO 4 SSE LAFAYETTE 40.36N 86.84W03/31/2016 TIPPECANOE IN EMERGENCY MNGRCAPTURED ON VIDEO A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3.5MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE AT WABASH NATIONALTRAILERS. A GUARD SHACK WAS DESTROYED...A CAR ROLLEDOVER AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER WAS DAMAGED AND NEARLYROLLED OVER. TORNADO ESTIMATED TO BE AN EF1 WITH WINDSPEEDS NEAR 100 MPH. EDIT:Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 1, 2016 Share Posted April 1, 2016 Also, IWX sending a survey team down for some damage just north of Wabash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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