Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I think while not specifically mentioning it, the primary reasoning was concern for things getting too messy with no capping and storm mergers/interference, as well as poor directional shear. This is basically what did in the Kansas potential today. With such impressive speed shear/kinematics you can't rule out a more substantial event, but for the LOT CWA specifically I wouldn't be shocked if there were only a few severe reports. We're in St. Louis for the night and have to decide whether to gamble over IL/IN that something will produce or head south to where the better potential appears to be. Thanks for chiming in. Since you brought up Kansas, would point out that the deep layer flow/speed shear in our area looks better than it did out there. The veered boundary layer flow isn't something that suddenly popped up, so was just surprised to see the ENH removed from IL/IN. Would've actually understood it more if there hadn't been that ENH area to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Thanks for chiming in. Since you brought up Kansas, would point out that the deep layer flow/speed shear in our area looks better than it did out there. The veered boundary layer flow isn't something that suddenly popped up, so was just surprised to see the ENH removed from IL/IN. Would've actually understood it more if there hadn't been that ENH area to begin with. That's a very good point about the speed shear being much stronger being right under the H5 jet. I think I came across as too pessimistic almost with my first response- you can easily envision a way in which there are fairly widespread reports. It just gives me pause with strong forcing, little capping, and early initiation and the high res guidance really lighting up with convection, which is probably not a good thing in terms of getting dominant cell (s) to produce higher end severe weather.It's also a good point about the removal of the ENH on the first day 1 outlook. It demonstrates subjecitivty forecaster to forecaster with these outlooks when it could have been valid to be more conservative and at least wait til 13z for instance. I do think that it probably at least partially came down to the outlook forecaster assessing things, deciding that the southern target had a higher threat level than farther north but not wanting to designate any MDT areas, so as a result wasn't comfortable having the two areas in the same categorical risk level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 On another note, temps staying up nicely to potentially allow for a good starting point. Still 59 at O'Hare with widespread readings AOA 60 farther south in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 On another note, temps staying up nicely to potentially allow for a good starting point. Still 59 at O'Hare with widespread readings AOA 60 farther south in IL. Can vouch for this. 59/57 here. Up from 58/56 an hour or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 59/56 here with the low level flow ramping up here. 60% chance of storms tomorrow in my grid forecast. Have already had a couple nice rumblers tonight. EURO showing a moderate risk of severe weather from roughly Champaign to GRR around 18z. Showing some convective elements in NE IL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Visible satellite shows a zone of clearing moving northeast in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Visible satellite shows a zone of clearing moving northeast in IL. g13.2016091.1345_EVV_vis.jpg I was wondering about that - how this morning's precip was going to affect atmospheric recovery to allow for convection later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Visible satellite shows a zone of clearing moving northeast in IL. g13.2016091.1345_EVV_vis.jpg Pretty obvious OFB in Mississippi/Alabama too. Keeping an eye on that for later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I was wondering about that - how this morning's precip was going to affect atmospheric recovery to allow for convection later... I think the closer temps get to 70, the better. May be optimistic for northern IL/IN to reach that but any sun should allow for a quick spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sun breaking through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Sun is out here in Oak Brook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Temps popping up quickly under full sun. 62/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Craven Sig Svr up to 25 along MS River. 57/54 and cloudy here but liking the prospects for later today with clearing occurring over IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 nice to get some clearing, should see initiation more or less overhead later today which is only fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Watching that cluster in N AR as HRRR has it coming up the Ohio River. ILN said something about this in their mid-morning AFD update SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- BIG KEY IS WHETHER SUNSHINE CAN BREAKOUT OR NOT AND INDUCE DESTABILIZATION AT A QUICKER RATE THAN SEENRIGHT NOW IN GUIDANCE. RIGHT NOW...NWP FCST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWINGMUCH CHANCE FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE WHICH KEEPS AFTN DESTABILIZATIONFROM GETTING OUT HAND...INSTEAD FOCUSING BEST BUILD OF CAPE BACKALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN IND. IN COMPARISON TO DATAYESTERDAY...SEEMS MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO LESS DESTABILIZATION.HOWEVER...CONTINUED WAA AS VEERING SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS LOWDEEPENS AND MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL COMBINE WITH DWPTS INTHE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TO PROMOTE WEAK MLCAPE AMIDST STRONGTROPOSPHERIC SHEAR PROFILES /MOSTLY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR AND LESSERCONTRIBUTIONS FROM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE BACKALONG COLD FRONT IN WRN IND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY BECOMESEVERE. SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDOF STORMS THAT MAY FIRE OVER SRN IND INTO KY...RACING NORTHEASTTOWARD TRI STATE BY EARLY EVENING. THIS CONTINUES TO BE DUPLICATEDOVER MANY RUNS OF EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...HI-RES WRF WINDOWS...AND SOME NCAR DART MEMBERS. CAMS SHOWINGDISCRETE/SPLITTING CELLS AS STORM MODE IN THE LATTER AREA WHICHFITS THE LONG/RATHER STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SEEN ON FCST SOUNDINGS.ALSO SEEING DISCRETE STORMS/SPLITS EMANATING FROM WRN INDIANAACTION...SO THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT RIGHT MOVERS MAY PROVIDEBRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY IN THE TRI STATE PORTION OFTHE CWA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AS MENTIONEDABOVE. HAVE SEEN LOCAL MAXIMUM OF UPDRAFT HELICITY IN THIS AREAFOR SEVERAL RUNS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH DISCRETE STORMSTRUCTURES IN SIM REF. HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH EITHERDISCRETE/SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. WIND A BETTER THREAT FOR CONGEALEDLINE SEGMENTS COMING OUT OF INDIANA/KY A LITTLE BIT LATER IN THEEVENING BUT WOULD BE SLOWLY RUNNING OUT OF THE MARGINAL INSTBYONCE CROSSING THE OHIO LINE. SO THREAT WINDOW SEEMS TO RESIDE FROM~4 PM TO ABOUT 9 PM BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILLFORCE STORMS TO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND RUNNING AWAYFROM POSI-TILTED INSTBY GRADIENT WITH SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAYFROM REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 On the downside, seeing where the 60 degree dewpoints are now makes me think it will be tough to get them to southern Lake Michigan as last night's HRRR runs were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 HRRR has some potentially nasty supercells down south later today. Yikes. Looks like a show stealer. But that squall in S IN might be worth watching in case there's an embedded supercell in there; parameters are favorable for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 On the downside, seeing where the 60 degree dewpoints are now makes me think it will be tough to get them to southern Lake Michigan as last night's HRRR runs were showing. 65/59 here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 ILX is doing a 16Z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Anyone think they'll go moderate risk for tornadoes for central/north Mississippi? It's obvious that an outflow boundary has set up, and there's obviously sun breaking through to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 64/57 here at ORD after the dew point dropped to 51 right after the earlier storms ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 naso sure about widespread severe but storm coverage with some marginal hail should be solid over the metro area later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 First warning out by the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Mesoanalysis showing that punch of relatively dry air at 850 mb in central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Good thunderstorm environment about to be nixed here, except maybe elevated. Hybrid-pneumonia/outflow boundary moving down the lake - almost here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 90-100 kt mid level speed max punching into IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Short deluge of small hail (pea sized) as this storm moved overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Watching the cell just east of Pontiac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Mini-supercell along the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Had a downpour with no thunder. Temp just fell 12° in the last 15 minutes. Another cell coming, maybe some hail will make it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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