IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 refd_1000m_f20.gif Well, alrighty then. Any difference in the timing between that and the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, alrighty then. Any difference in the timing between that and the NAM? Timing is pretty close. Sometimes there's a bit of a slow bias with this model so it's possible the timing could move up. Another image...one hour precip and winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 3z HRRR has SBCAPE up to 2000 all the way to Lake Michigan at 18z. Temps don't look all that unreasonable but it has low 60s dewpoints there which may be a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 3z HRRR has SBCAPE up to 2000 all the way to Lake Michigan at 18z. Temps don't look all that unreasonable but it has low 60s dewpoints there which may be a bit aggressive.I do know that dewpoints have rapidly risen here in the last couple hours. It is now pretty muggy outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I do know that dewpoints have rapidly risen here in the last couple hours. It is now pretty muggy outside. Yep, dew point rapidly went from from the mid 40's to mid 50's down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I do know that dewpoints have rapidly risen here in the last couple hours. It is now pretty muggy outside. Been sitting at 56° for the past couple hours here. 58/56 and humidity at 92%. Still, feels good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Ouch.. https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/severe-southern-storms-impacts-march-30-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Low level clouds are screaming north in Dekalb. Definitely impressive moisture transport.I think purduewx summed it up nicely that unless you get locally backed winds or a right turning (that happens to be discrete) cell that turns right, you won't get much low level helicity to work with for a solid tor threat. And bulk shear vectors not being orthogonal to the initiating boundary and hodographs with quite the crosswise vorticity, lots of splitting, it'll get messy quite quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Something I noticed on the HRRR/RAP is that they have stronger 850 mb flow than the other models over ne IL/nw IN tomorrow in the late morning/early afternoon. This would only add to the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 On HRRR, the mixed layer problem exists only up until 17z more toward Springfield. But the mixed layer moistens in the next 2 hours for east Illinois and west Indiana. Some nasty parameters showing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wonder if they might tug the ENH northward on the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Wonder if they might tug the ENH northward on the new outlook. Might wait til morning but I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 05z HRRR initialized poorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Might wait til morning but I wouldn't be shocked. Yeah maybe. I think you could argue for a 50+ mile northward expansion but we'll see. Directional shear issues/questions aside, some of these forecast soundings are fairly impressive...you don't see that much CAPE and 100 kts at 500 mb on the same sounding all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Yeah maybe. I think you could argue for a 50+ mile northward expansion but we'll see. Directional shear issues/questions aside, some of these forecast soundings are fairly impressive...you don't see that much CAPE and 100 kts at 500 mb on the same sounding all the time. I would argue expansion eastward a bit as well. Models seem to be keying in on whatever formed congealing into a line into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, the ENH got pushed south. Shows how much I know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I would argue expansion eastward a bit as well. Models seem to be keying in on whatever formed congealing into a line into the evening. And they literally pushed the Slight out of MI and killed the Indiana Enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Well, the ENH got pushed south. Shows how much I know lol SPC relies heavily on the SREF suite.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 SPC relies heavily on the SREF suite.... If this winter was any indication, then the SREF should be killed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 When you think about why it was downgraded, it's a little bit puzzling. I don't really think anything got markedly worse in terms of severe chances compared to earlier in the day when the day 2 outlook was issued, and they didn't mention anything about why it was downgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 If this winter was any indication, then the SREF should be killed off. Are you familiar with the SPC's SREF? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 New outlook: all ENH probabilities are from Paducah KY southward to the middle of Mississippi. Personally, I still think model soundings and NAM-4km reflectivity point to an active severe weather possibility in mid-Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Meanwhile, sounds like a game of tornado roulette with the outflow boundaries down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Are you familiar with the SPC's SREF? Probably not. Erm, yes. I am. The SREF plumes for snowfall did horribly this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 SREF....now compare to the enhanced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 When you think about why it was downgraded, it's a little bit puzzling. I don't really think anything got markedly worse in terms of severe chances compared to earlier in the day when the day 2 outlook was issued, and they didn't mention anything about why it was downgraded. If anything some of the short range models were more alarming, if the squall line they are picturing develops then a widespread threat would appear. Worst of all is we can't see there reasoning, if someone from one of our local CWAs does something, we can ask as they post here. The inner thinking of the SPC always alludes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 Erm, yes. I am. The SREF plumes for snowfall did horribly this winter. We're not forecasting for snowfall, they really aren't comparable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I think the 10% tornado zone on this outlook in MS, AL, and TN could really get a lot of severe weather reports tomorrow. Unfortunately this part of the south got hit hard on Dec. 23rd. Also, night-time tornadoes are always worse, because people aren't ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 I think while not specifically mentioning it, the primary reasoning was concern for things getting too messy with no capping and storm mergers/interference, as well as poor directional shear. This is basically what did in the Kansas potential today. With such impressive speed shear/kinematics you can't rule out a more substantial event, but for the LOT CWA specifically I wouldn't be shocked if there were only a few severe reports. We're in St. Louis for the night and have to decide whether to gamble over IL/IN that something will produce or head south to where the better potential appears to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 31, 2016 Share Posted March 31, 2016 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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