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La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Seems like 83-84 will be a good enso analog this winter..outside shot of 95-96

outside of February that winter was pretty good...we got a little snow for Christmas with record cold...A good January...A terrible February...A great March...February was the warmest on record at the time and March was four degrees cooler than February and had the largest snowfall of the season...

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dmillz25

dmillz25

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Negative, but not strongly negative. I think -5 to -12 or so is ideal. Huge negative numbers are bad. There is a tricky part though, I want to say that under El Niño conditions blocking is also likely with a positive QBO. Under neutral or La Niña though I think a positive QBO, even a weakly positive one supports a +NAO. Some forecasters, I think maybe DT is one, think the QBO is overrated and that anything between +12 to -12 is insignificant.

Thank you for the information.
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Isotherm

Isotherm

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outside of February that winter was pretty good...we got a little snow for Christmas with record cold...A good January...A terrible February...A great March...February was the warmest on record at the time and March was four degrees cooler than February and had the largest snowfall of the season...

 

Interesting discrepancy in totals that winter. NYC recorded 25", Newark 29", and 38" in New Brunswick. That's a very good winter in CNJ. Must have been quite a few coastal huggers/Miller B's I'm guessing. New Brunswick had 16" of snow in January with a mean temperature of 25.5F, a very cold/snowy month.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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Interesting discrepancy in totals that winter. NYC recorded 25", Newark 29", and 38" in New Brunswick. That's a very good winter in CNJ. Must have been quite a few coastal huggers/Miller B's I'm guessing. New Brunswick had 16" of snow in January with a mean temperature of 25.5F, a very cold/snowy month.

January 1984 had almost 12" of snow and an average temperature 29.9...March had almost 12" of snow with and average temperature of 36.7...There are not many March's that had 12" of snow with an average temperature under 37...

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
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Negative, but not strongly negative. I think -5 to -12 or so is ideal. Huge negative numbers are bad. There is a tricky part though, I want to say that under El Niño conditions blocking is also likely with a positive QBO. Under neutral or La Niña though I think a positive QBO, even a weakly positive one supports a +NAO. Some forecasters, I think maybe DT is one, think the QBO is overrated and that anything between +12 to -12 is insignificant.

Found this link to Joe D'Aleo's book on the QBO and ENSO, someone posted on twitter. The research shows that positive (westerly) QBO and La Niña or La Nada/neutral strongly supports +NAO winters. Just the opposite holds true for negative (easterly) QBO and La Niña, that favors -NAO winters. Here is the link so everyone can read it for themselves: https://books.google.com/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=d'aleo+qbo+nina+west&source=bl&ots=IYwxIqyHNi&sig=HgOqTd_Q2EZOgo1V5N_xjH6zc6M&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiD9dyNldzNAhWCqB4KHS1TC0MQ6AEIKTAB#v=onepage&q=d'aleo%20qbo%20nina%20west&f=true
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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

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Wanted to add that Snowgoose is correct about El Niño as well. If you read the excerpt from that book, positive (westerly) QBO and El Niño favor -NAO winters and negative (easterly) QBO with El Niño favors +NAO winters

There have been easterly QBO that have had cold and snowy winters in the east..again it's just one out of many factors

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snowman19

snowman19

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There have been easterly QBO that have had cold and snowy winters in the east..again it's just one out of many factors

There are exceptions and other factors that go into everything, but as a general rule, and it's supported by research, if you want high latitude winter blocking with a Niño, you want a +QBO to go along with it and if you want blocking with a Niña or a Nada/Neutral you want a -QBO in place
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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
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There are exceptions and other factors that go into everything, but as a general rule, and it's supported by research, if you want high latitude winter blocking with a Niño, you want a +QBO to go along with it and if you want blocking with a Niña or a Nada/Neutral you want a -QBO in place

 

 

The QBO state in and of itself isn't a very efficacious predictor of high latitude blocking. It's most useful when coupled w/ solar forcing. It isn't a A+B=C / linear pathway whereby +QBO (-QBO) ---> insignificant (significant) blocking. I have found that - depending upon the solar state - the QBO signal is either amplified or muted. We also have to consider the magnitude and trend of the QBO (more negative / less negative). I'm of the opinion that the QBO influence on blocking is quite a bit more convoluted than mere correlations between its mode and NAM/NAO states.

 

No slam dunks either way for next winter right now. Need to watch QBO behavior as its oscillations are rather unprecedented currently.

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
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Very weak La Nina or neutral cold La Nada.

 

July run

 

attachicon.gifCm24mvpXEAAfNbT.jpg-small.jpg

 

June run

 

attachicon.gifps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-gizrXK.png

Last winter folks like JB were already writing off winter 16/17 with all the talk of a strong Nina. Now with the prospects of a weak Nina in the offing, that's one piece of the puzzle for a cold/snowy one. If we can couple that with a -NAO regime, it will be a snow weenies dream with thoughts of 95/96 dancing in their heads. Myself included.  :snowing:

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
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Last winter folks like JB were already writing off winter 16/17 with all the talk of a strong Nina. Now with the prospects of a weak Nina in the offing, that's one piece of the puzzle for a cold/snowy one. If we can couple that with a -NAO regime, it will be a snow weenies dream with thoughts of 95/96 dancing in their heads. Myself included. :snowing:

Weak Niña does not automatically mean cold and snowy winter, I don't know where people are getting this from. 2010-2011 was a high end moderate, borderline strong Niña
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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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winters since 1950 with an oni -0.5 or higher for the Dec-Feb tri monthly period...

weak negative...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1962-63..............-0.4.......30.0....-2..........28.6..........16.3"..........4.2"

1967-68..............-0.4.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6"

2013-14..............-0.5.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5" 11.5" 8.0" 6.4" 5.0" 4.0"

1964-65..............-0.5.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3" 4.6"

1985-86..............-0.4.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5" 4.5"

1966-67..............-0.4.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5" 9.8" 7.1"

1983-84..............-0.5.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9" 5.1" 4.6"

1956-57..............-0.3.......35.6.....0..........27.8..........21.9"..........6.4" 4.9"

2012-13..............-0.4.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"..........11.4" 4.7"

1974-75..............-0.5.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8"

1996-97..............-0.5.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5"

winters in red followed an el nino...I left out winters like 1960-61 with an oni -0.1 for DJF...80-81 too...

 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

winters since 1950 with an oni -0.5 or higher for the Dec-Feb tri monthly period...

weak negative...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1962-63..............-0.4.......30.0....-2..........28.6..........16.3"..........4.2"

1967-68..............-0.4.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6"

2013-14..............-0.5.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"..........12.5" 11.5" 8.0" 6.4" 5.0" 4.0"

1964-65..............-0.5.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3" 4.6"

1985-86..............-0.4.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5" 4.5"

1966-67..............-0.4.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"..........12.5" 9.8" 7.1"

1983-84..............-0.5.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9" 5.1" 4.6"

1956-57..............-0.3.......35.6.....0..........27.8..........21.9"..........6.4" 4.9"

2012-13..............-0.4.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"..........11.4" 4.7"

1974-75..............-0.5.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8"

1996-97..............-0.5.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5"

winters in red followed an el nino...I left out winters like 1960-61 with an oni -0.1 for DJF...80-81 too...

Weak nina following strong Nino..66--67 and 83-84 are good analogs,except July 66 was a furnace..83-84 is pretty close to this summer.If we have a hot September it could seal the deal

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uncle W

uncle W

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Weak nina following strong Nino..66--67 and 83-84 are good analogs,except July 66 was a furnace..83-84 is pretty close to this summer.If we have a hot September it could seal the deal

If the oni falls between -0.2 and + 0.2 we have analogs like 60-61, 93-94 but also 2001-02 and 1989-90...

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uncle W

uncle W

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If the oni falls between -0.2 and + 0.2 we have analogs like 60-61, 93-94 but also 2001-02 and 1989-90...

1959-60...-0.1

1960-61....0.0

1961-62...-0.2

1978-79....0.0

1980-81...-0.2

1981-82....0.0

1989-90....0.1

1992-93....0.2

1993-94....0.1

2001-02...-0.2

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

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If the oni falls between -0.2 and + 0.2 we have analogs like 60-61, 93-94 but also 2001-02 and 1989-90...

01-02 came out of a 3 year Nina. 89-90 out of a strong Nina and 93-94 followed a weak nino if my memory is correct.I would assume strong nino to weak nina is our major analogs here

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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01-02 came out of a 3 year Nina. 89-90 out of a strong Nina and 93-94 followed a weak nino if my memory is correct.I would assume strong nino to weak nina is our major analogs here

1959-60 and 1992-93 followed an el nino and both had a huge March...1980-81 followed a weak el nino and March was the snowiest month...1978-79 didn't have a good March but February was great...

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

they both followed a la nina too...I'd go with 59-60 or 92-93 if the oni was in that area...

There is no question the last few neutral winters to follow modest La Niñas really sucked. 96-97, 01-02 and to an extent 11-12 was a dying La Niña. I guess that means we should be on the lookout for 17-18.

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snowman19

snowman19

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There is no question the last few neutral winters to follow modest La Niñas really sucked. 96-97, 01-02 and to an extent 11-12 was a dying La Niña. I guess that means we should be on the lookout for 17-18.

I can't understand why people who want cold and snow are rooting for a neutral winter this year. If anything it just complicates things even further and more can go wrong without any significant (predictable) ENSO forcing, to move the pattern around. Back in 2011-2012, you knew we were screwed at the end of November, when the Bering Sea vortex showed up, locked in and it just ended up staying there right into that spring. Stagnant patterns like that can get locked in for months in La Nada/neutral winters...
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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

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I can't understand why people who want cold and snow are rooting for a neutral winter this year. If anything it just complicates things even further and more can go wrong without any significant (predictable) ENSO forcing, to move the pattern around. Back in 2011-2012, you knew we were screwed at the end of November, when the Bering Sea vortex showed up, locked in and it just ended up staying there right into that spring. Stagnant patterns like that can get locked in for months in La Nada/neutral winters...

That's the general climate state now. Stuck patterns. Sometimes we win and some times we loose

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Eduardo

Eduardo

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I can't understand why people who want cold and snow are rooting for a neutral winter this year. If anything it just complicates things even further and more can go wrong without any significant (predictable) ENSO forcing, to move the pattern around. Back in 2011-2012, you knew we were screwed at the end of November, when the Bering Sea vortex showed up, locked in and it just ended up staying there right into that spring. Stagnant patterns like that can get locked in for months in La Nada/neutral winters...

 

Have we had snowy, (truly) ENSO-neutral winters in the past?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Have we had snowy, (truly) ENSO-neutral winters in the past?

60-61 is probably the best example. 59-60 wasn't bad. 93-94 was relatively neutral as was 03-04, although 03-04 sort of pulled a 09-10/10-11 in that after 1/25 it shut off. Almost all of those followed El Ninos though. For whatever reason it seems neutrals coming off La Niñas aren't as snowy. 85/86, 89/90, 96-97 01/02 and 11/12 all were near neutrals after La Niña periods.

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

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60-61 is probably the best example. 59-60 wasn't bad. 93-94 was relatively neutral as was 03-04, although 03-04 sort of pulled a 09-10/10-11 in that after 1/25 it shut off. Almost all of those followed El Ninos though. For whatever reason it seems neutrals coming off La Niñas aren't as snowy. 85/86, 89/90, 96-97 01/02 and 11/12 all were near neutrals after La Niña periods.

Neutral after El nino's are usually good..after La Nina's terrible

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