La Niña/Winter 2016-17 Discussion

[nzucker]

That's false. Of the 7 strong el nino events since 1940 (40-41, 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16) 3 of them were colder than normal (40-41, 65-66, 57-58). Most did not live through the colder strong nino's, but they do occur with sufficient blocking. A warm December is a virtual lock, however.

65-66 and 57-58 were two of the weaker "strong" Ninos...the really powerful events like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73 have been pretty mild with only limited snowfall or one storm.

[Isotherm]

65-66 and 57-58 were two of the weaker "strong" Ninos...the really powerful events like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73 have been pretty mild with only limited snowfall or one storm.

 

 

Agreed; the purpose of my post; however, was to respond to the claim, "strong el nino's are always warm." 65-66 and 57-58 had trimonthly Nino region 3.4 peaks of +1.8 and +1.7c respectively (pre 1950 data indicates 1940-41 had a > +2.0c peak).

[nzucker]

Agreed; the purpose of my post; however, was to respond to the claim, "strong el nino's are always warm." 65-66 and 57-58 had trimonthly Nino region 3.4 peaks of +1.8 and +1.7c respectively (pre 1950 data indicates 1940-41 had a > +2.0c peak).

65-66 and 57-58 especially were very similar to 2009-10. 57-58 was a particularly good analog with its west-based character and snowy February. Winter 65-66 had most of the action in January with some big snows upstate.

[easternsnowman]

If there is a strong La Niña, you don't want to be south of central New England

I believe upstate Pa north of Scranton and NY state will be okay and the more elevation the better.

[SnowGoose69]

I would take a strong La Niña that follows immediately after a strong El Niño any day over a strong El Niño. The lag effect is going to be there and you often end up with a stronger STJ and sometimes more blocking than you otherwise would expect. See 2010-11 and even 98-99 had a period of insane blocking in January. There were also several southern US winter events in both 98-99 and 10-11 and even 73-74. There is no question strong La Niñas that follow strong el Ninos tend to be wetter for the Eastern US than most other La Niñas do The pacific SSTs by the GOA in 98-99 though weren't as favorable as 10-11 or as they almost certainly will be in 16-17

[JBG]

73-74 was close to average 88-89 and 98-99 were duds.however it did snow the day before Christmas in 1998..And if you like front end winters..cold December ect..then La Nina's are to your liking

95-96 and 10-11..two of my favorite winters were La Nina's..there are so many other factors involved..One thing is for certain,if it's a strong nino it's going to be warm and November and December are going to torch..can't say that about strong nina's

1972-3 had two significant early-season near-misses; December 15, 1972 and January 7, 1973.And frankly November 15, 1972 came close to being fun.  We had significant cold waves the week leading up to Thanksgiving, December 16-18, 1972.and January 6-12, 1973. My general belief about Niños is relief when they end because overall they tend to promote mild winters and summers while I prefer extremes.

 

But 1972-3 was either front-loaded or neutrally loaded, since November and February overall were below normal.

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: +0.2 (-)

Nino 3: -0.3 (-0.2)

Nino 3.4: -0.1 (-0.3)

Nino 4: +0.6 (-)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[snowman19]

Following the trend of the last 20 years or so, the SSTs in the tropical Pacific up to this point are showing a west-based Niña forming

[PB GFI]

Following the trend of the last 20 years or so, the SSTs in the tropical Pacific up to this point are showing a west-based Niña forming

 

Like last year , It is prob a bit early but the CFS ( winter ) and European ( Nov )  have more of a basin wide look .

 

 

 

[Morris]

Latest values:

Nino 1.2: 0.0 (-0.2)
Nino 3: -0.3 (-)
Nino 3.4: -0.2 (-0.1)
Nino 4: +0.5 (-0.1)

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[snowman19]

Like last year , It is prob a bit early but the CFS ( winter ) and European ( Nov ) have more of a basin wide look .

Saw that. I always take the CFS with a grain of salt lol. I do think at least a high end moderate event is a very good possibility though...

[snowman19]

Joe Bastardi pointed it out earlier today, but there is now a very large area of colder than -4C subsurface anomalies showing up, and getting stronger. Starting to get the feeling this La Niña may overperform

[dmillz25]

Looks like this could be a moderate niña

[snowman19]

Different type of Nino to Nina transition trade wind pattern over the Tropical Pacific this May.

Notice how the trades are stronger west of the DL and weaker east than has been the case

since 1990. June is starting out with much weaker trades east of the DL than is typical for

a developing La Nina.

ZWIND.png

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Good post, lends more evidence to this Niña being another west-based event

[snowman19]

It's also developing more slowly than our last Nina to Nino transition in June 2010.

So that may be why models like the CFS are coming in with a weaker La Nina than 2010-2011.

But it's still early, so it will be interesting to see how things play out.

nino34MonadjPDFSPRDC.gif

PDFcr_nino34SSTMon.gif

We are coming off a super Nino right now, very different situation from 10-11.

[Yanksfan]

But the La Nina following the last super El Nino was also further along than we are now with a much more

impressive cold pool beneath the surface in June 98 and colder Nino 3.4's .

 

Both 98-99 and 10-11 peaked at -1.4. So unless the trades really ramp up this summer, we'll

probably come up short of those two events.

Good to hear that the models are starting to back off a bit on this La Nina. Hope the trend continues. The earlier talks of a strong event would of put next winter in some serious peril.

[dmillz25]

Good to hear that the models are starting to back off a bit on this La Nina. Hope the trend continues. The earlier talks of a strong event would of put next winter in some serious peril.

the wildcard is as always blocking

[Yanksfan]

the wildcard is as always blocking

Yes that's true. There are other weather pattern variables at play with blocking being one of them. However with a stronger event, the more need for these other variables to work in our favor if you want cold and snow.

[uncle W]

after 1983 and 1998 el ninos there were three years of la nina or weak negative years...we could be in for a two or three year event...

[nzucker]

after 1983 and 1998 el ninos there were three years of la nina or weak negative years...we could be in for a two or three year event...

It would be nice if next year's Nina was weak or we stayed negative neutral, as those have been very kind to us, thinking of 00-01, 95-96, 66-67, 60-61, etc...I severely doubt this, however, as the subsurface seems to be pointing to at least a moderate La Nina.

[uncle W]

the three strongest el nino's were followed by at least two la nina's or weak negatives...1973-74 and 1975-76 were la nina years...1983-84 to 1985-86 were weak negative or weak la nina years...1998-99 to 2000-01 were la nina years...2010 was followed by two la nina's and two weak negative years...Will we see a strong la nina like 1973-74 or weak like 1983-84?...TWT...

[snowman19]

Quite a contrast for a La Nina to begin to develop during the strongest spring +PDO since 1950.

This was the first time that each spring month featured a PDO above 2.00.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

PDO.png

This +PDO stretch may be nearing an end. Check out these new tweets by HM: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/744221307844313088 The upcoming pattern looks extremely similar to other years at this point, which saw the PDO flip from positive to negative....

[snowman19]

This +PDO stretch may be nearing an end. Check out these new tweets by HM: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/744221307844313088 The upcoming pattern looks extremely similar to other years at this point, which saw the PDO flip from positive to negative....

Would like to add that if a flip to a -PDO does happen, it probably won't take place until this fall

[Sundog]

This is the slowest developing La Nina so far a Nino to Nina transition summer since 1990.

It's the first Nino to Nina transition with no negative ENSO regions around the 6/15 update.

The previous transition Junes of 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998, and 1995 were all further along 

by around this time.

 

15JUN2016  0.4  0.2  0.2  0.7

 

Is it possible that the average SSTs are just higher now therefore making departures look slightly positive when they traditionally would have been slightly negative? 

[snowman19]

It's the same dataset so you can see the actual SST temp and departure.

The ENSO SST's for around June 15th are warmer than the other transition

years at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Now that the trade winds have picked up in earnest, the western Nino regions are free falling right now. SSTs in 3.4 are dropping like a rock right now. Only expect this to continue with the SOI rising...

[snowman19]

Would like to add that if a flip to a -PDO does happen, it probably won't take place until this fall

Based on what is going on, major pressure rises over the North Pacific right now and for the foreseeable future, expect a major drop in the PDO this summer. If you look at the current SSTs, the cool pool in the western north PAC has begun to warm significantly. I would expect at least a neutral PDO by the start of fall and a drop to a solid negative PDO this fall. The La Niña/ENSO forcing of the PDO has begun, witnessed by the huge drop in AAM. I posted a link to the research on this (ENSO forces the PDO) about a month ago in this thread, and it's really holding true as we can see. Good tweet chain on this here: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/745008488775036928

[bluewave]

Now that the trade winds have picked up in earnest, the western Nino regions are free falling right now. SSTs in 3.4 are dropping like a rock right now. Only expect this to continue with the SOI rising...

 

You can see the trades picking up and the SST"s dropping over the last week. But the big question is how strong will

the trades average once we get past this MJO pulse with the near record WWB's over the IO? 

 

We are still starting out on the slower side for Nino to Nina  transitions along with record +PDO

levels for this time of year.

 

This year will be a first since we never saw a La Nina develop against such a strong +PDO

background state before. The very strong June IO WWB pattern is also very unusual 

for a Nino to Nina June transition. 

 

[snowman19]

You can see the trades picking up and the SST"s dropping over the last week. But the big question is how strong will

the trades average once we get past this MJO pulse with the near record WWB's over the IO?

We are still starting out on the slower side for Nino to Nina transitions along with record +PDO

levels for this time of year.

This year will be a first since we never saw a La Nina develop against such a strong +PDO

background state before. The very strong June IO WWB pattern is also very unusual

for a Nino to Nina June transition.

u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

I think the reason why the seasonal models are keeping a +PDO through fall is because they are initializing with the PDO positive and they are incorrectly keeping it in place. Problem is, with the pattern we are going into now, with all that high pressure over the northern Pacific, you can't sustain a +PDO. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of this stretch of +PDO and are going to be transitioning into a -PDO this fall. As you can see with the ongoing changes in the North Pacific ssts, most notably the warming of the western north PAC cool pool, the PDO has already started the beginning of a drop. Also of important note, the QBO has been behaving in an unprecedented manner this year. It has been exhibiting extremely unusual behavior as of late and some experts are saying the QBO may actually go back into a positive (westerly) phase this fall instead of the -QBO (easterly) everyone had been expecting. If the QBO does in fact turn positive this fall, the previous techniques of predicting its long term phases will have to be seriously rethought

[snowman19]

The new runs of all seasonal models are pretty much in unanimous agreement that we will be in an ugly looking (hot and dry) classic La Niña longwave pattern come September. If you don't like heat and dryness don't look, SE ridge from hell

[snowman19]

You can see the trades picking up and the SST"s dropping over the last week. But the big question is how strong will

the trades average once we get past this MJO pulse with the near record WWB's over the IO?

We are still starting out on the slower side for Nino to Nina transitions along with record +PDO

levels for this time of year.

This year will be a first since we never saw a La Nina develop against such a strong +PDO

background state before. The very strong June IO WWB pattern is also very unusual

for a Nino to Nina June transition.

u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

Bluewave, here are good illustrations of how quickly we are loosing the +PDO: https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745696618008166400 https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherInTheHud/status/745699808992759808